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Krispy Kreme
(NASDAQ:DNUT)
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Rating:46Neutral
Price Target:
$3.00
▼(-4.76% Downside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:08/07/26
DNUT scores low primarily due to weak financial performance (ongoing losses and soft revenue) and bearish technicals (below key moving averages with negative momentum). The earnings call provides a partial offset with clear progress in EBITDA/margins, capex reduction, free cash flow improvement, and guidance maintenance, but valuation remains constrained by loss-making results and leverage is still high.
Positive Factors
Improving cash generation
Krispy Kreme returned to positive operating and free cash flow on a TTM basis after prior multi-year outflows. Persistent positive cash generation, even if volatile, supports capital-light growth, franchise payouts, and debt reduction, improving durability of operations over months.
Negative Factors
Persistently negative profitability
Despite gross-margin improvements, the company remains loss-making on the bottom line and reported negative returns on equity. Continued negative operating profit weakens the company's ability to self-fund growth and lengthens the timeline to consistent, durable shareholder returns.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Improving cash generation
Krispy Kreme returned to positive operating and free cash flow on a TTM basis after prior multi-year outflows. Persistent positive cash generation, even if volatile, supports capital-light growth, franchise payouts, and debt reduction, improving durability of operations over months.
Read all positive factors
Krispy Kreme (DNUT) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$548.23M
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)2.71M
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)1.47
Revenue Growth-5.22%
EPS Growth-2258.17%
CountryUS
Employees17,000
SectorConsumer Defensive
Sector Strength42
IndustryRestaurants
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)-0.55
Shares Outstanding172,400,000
10 Day Avg. Volume2,599,844
30 Day Avg. Volume2,714,346
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio<0.01
Price to Book (P/B)1.09
Price to Sales (P/S)0.47
P/FCF Ratio-11.14
Enterprise Value/Market Cap<0.01
Enterprise Value/Revenue<0.01
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit<0.01
Enterprise Value/Ebitda<0.01
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$4.00Price Target Upside26.98% Upside
Rating ConsensusHold
Number of Analyst Covering4
EPS Forecast (FY)>-0.01
Revenue Forecast (FY)$1.30B
Krispy Kreme Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Krispy Kreme, Inc. (DNUT) is a quick-service restaurant and packaged food company best known for its Krispy Kreme-branded doughnuts, including its Original Glazed. The company operates a vertically integrated model that includes doughnut productio...
How the Company Makes Money
Krispy Kreme primarily makes money by producing and selling doughnuts (and complementary beverages and other treats) through a mix of direct-to-consumer and business-to-business channels. A major revenue stream is retail sales from company-operate...
Krispy Kreme Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Aug 06, 2026
(Q2-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Nov 05, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call communicated clear, measurable progress on the turnaround plan with significant margin expansion, adjusted EBITDA growth, deleveraging, large CapEx cuts and strong productivity gains — particularly in the U.S., digital, loyalty and fresh-delivery channels. Headwinds were primarily transitional: reported net revenue declined due to planned re-franchising, and international markets (notably the U.K. and Australia) reported softer results and mix-driven margin pressures. Management reiterated guidance and emphasized capital-light, franchise-led growth and free cash flow focus, indicating confidence that near-term revenue and mix impacts will yield stronger margins and cash flow over time.Positive Updates
Adjusted EBITDA Growth and Margin Expansion
Adjusted EBITDA was $28.8 million, up 43% year-over-year; consolidated adjusted EBITDA margin widened by 340 basis points to 8.7% (fourth consecutive quarter of adjusted EBITDA growth).
Negative Updates
Reported Net Revenue Decline
Consolidated net revenue was $331 million, down 13% year-over-year, primarily driven by planned re-franchising in the Western U.S. and Japan; organic revenue excluding re-franchising was essentially flat.
Read all updates
Q2-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Adjusted EBITDA Growth and Margin Expansion
Adjusted EBITDA was $28.8 million, up 43% year-over-year; consolidated adjusted EBITDA margin widened by 340 basis points to 8.7% (fourth consecutive quarter of adjusted EBITDA growth).
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Krispy Kreme said it is maintaining full‑year 2026 guidance with net revenue of $1.25–$1.35 billion, system‑wide sales growth of 2%–4% in constant currency, adjusted EBITDA of $140–$150 million, and capital expenditures of $50–$60 million, while targeting system‑wide sales of more than $2.0 billion and positive free cash flow for 2026; Q2 results that underpin the outlook included net revenue of $331 million (down 13% due to re‑franchising), system‑wide sales of $497 million (up 2.6% ex‑McDonald’s), adjusted EBITDA of $28.8 million (+43%) and a consolidated adjusted EBITDA margin of 8.7% (+340 bps), YTD CapEx of $16.1 million (‑70% vs. prior year) and free cash flow improvement of >$100 million in H1, a net leverage ratio of 5.4x (down 1.3 turns vs. end‑2025 and >2 turns vs. last year’s Q2), ~59 new shops YTD (on track for ≥100), three new international franchise markets added, franchisees now generate ~42% of system‑wide sales (vs. ~25% last year, goal ~50% next year), U.S. average weekly sales per door of ~$697 (+33% YoY), digital sales +8% to ~22% of U.S. retail, and a ~18 million‑member loyalty base (visiting ~30% more frequently); management also noted stronger seasonality in Q4 and cautioned comparability vs. a $9.3 million Q3‑2025 insurance gain.Krispy Kreme Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
34
Negative
Balance Sheet
48
Neutral
Cash Flow
41
Neutral
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 1.47B | 1.52B | 1.67B | 1.69B | 1.53B | 1.38B |
| Gross Profit | 685.96M | 213.95M | 1.26B | 1.24B | 1.12B | 1.03B |
| EBITDA | 103.91M | -341.73M | 213.43M | 135.24M | 136.20M | 140.52M |
| Net Income | -95.72M | -515.77M | 3.10M | -37.92M | -15.62M | -24.51M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 2.36B | 2.59B | 3.07B | 3.24B | 3.15B | 3.15B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 21.82M | -42.39M | 28.96M | 38.19M | 35.37M | 38.56M |
| Total Debt | 469.00M | 1.42B | 1.35B | 1.40B | 1.24B | 1.18B |
| Total Liabilities | 1.74B | 1.92B | 1.91B | 1.98B | 1.85B | 1.81B |
| Stockholders Equity | 618.05M | 656.20M | 1.13B | 1.17B | 1.20B | 1.23B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 48.72M | -64.00M | -74.96M | -75.88M | 28.10M | 21.73M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 117.43M | 33.92M | 45.83M | 45.54M | 139.82M | 141.22M |
| Investing Cash Flow | 124.96M | -12.14M | 19.28M | -112.59M | -120.88M | -153.41M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -211.01M | -7.76M | -73.95M | 71.86M | -17.43M | 16.10M |
Krispy Kreme Technical Analysis
Negative
3.15
Price Trends
3.46
Negative
3.48
Negative
3.63
Negative
Market Momentum
-0.09
Negative
47.00
Neutral
33.33
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For DNUT, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 3.15 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 3.24, below the 50-day MA of 3.46, and below the 200-day MA of 3.63, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.09 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 47.00 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 33.33 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for DNUT.
Krispy Kreme Risk Analysis
Krispy Kreme disclosed 40 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Krispy Kreme reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Krispy Kreme Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (62)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
68 Neutral | $587.17M | 11.72 | 10.74% | 2.35% | 4.20% | -3.38% | |
68 Neutral | $738.69M | 15.34 | 22.26% | 1.90% | 3.09% | 16.13% | |
62 Neutral | $20.33B | 14.63 | -3.31% | 3.23% | 1.93% | -12.26% | |
62 Neutral | $561.95M | 9.93 | 36.14% | ― | -18.47% | 32.49% | |
53 Neutral | $1.67B | 16.04 | 6.41% | 0.77% | -0.28% | 68.37% | |
49 Neutral | $909.10M | -2.36 | -36.58% | ― | 6.04% | -2370.84% | |
46 Neutral | $548.23M | -1.07 | -76.98% | ― | -5.22% | -2258.17% |
* Consumer Defensive Sector Average
DNUT
Krispy Kreme
3.23
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1.57%
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Krispy Kreme Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board ChangesShareholder Meetings
Krispy Kreme Shareholders Back Board, Pay and Auditor
Positive
Jun 12, 2026
At its June 10, 2026 virtual annual meeting, Krispy Kreme stockholders elected eight directors to one-year terms and endorsed the company’s executive compensation in an advisory vote, signaling continued support for current leadership and pa...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.