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CoreCivic (CXW) AI Stock Analysis
CoreCivic
(NYSE:CXW)
The score is driven by solid technical uptrend signals and a generally positive earnings call centered on strengthened liquidity, debt paydown, and higher per-share guidance. These positives are tempered by weaker free-cash-flow conversion highlighted in the financials and a less compelling valuation (P/E ~26) without an indicated dividend yield.
CoreCivic Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Revenue by SegmentBreaks down sales across CoreCivic’s business lines to show which activities supply the bulk of revenue and where growth is coming from. Highlights dependence on government contracts, facility occupancy and contract renewals, and geographic or service areas that could accelerate or slow top-line growth.
Safety is now the clear growth engine—fuelling the recent revenue surge via ICE-driven federal demand, idle‑facility reactivations and the Clinical Solutions acquisition—while Community creeps upward and Properties has collapsed to an immaterial, steady base. That reallocation supports stronger cash flow, buybacks and raised guidance but concentrates risk: near‑term results hinge on ICE population volatility, policy shifts and successful facility/acquisition integrations (management flags a potential Q2 headwind despite upgraded full‑year guidance).
The FlyCoreCivic (CXW) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
- Market Cap
- $3.06B
- Dividend Yield
- ―
- Average Volume (3M)
- 1.89M
- Price to Earnings (P/E)
- 25.2
- Beta (1Y)
- 1.16
- Revenue Growth
- 24.35%
- EPS Growth
- 32.67%
- Country
- US
- Employees
- 13,651
- Sector
- Industrials
- Sector Strength
- 63
- Industry
- Security & Protection Services
CoreCivic Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
CoreCivic, Inc. specializes in the ownership and management of a diverse portfolio of correctional institutions, detention centers, and residential reentry facilities throughout the United States. Its operations are organized into three distinct divi...
How the Company Makes Money
CoreCivic makes money primarily by providing facilities and services to government agencies under contracts and, in some cases, by leasing real estate to government tenants. 1) Contracted facility operations and services (primary revenue stream) - Co...
CoreCivic Earnings Call Summary
The call conveyed a predominantly positive operational and financial story driven by large, accretive asset sales that materially strengthened liquidity, enabled debt reduction, and expanded share repurchase capacity. Core operating metrics showed healthy year‑over‑year improvements (notably ICE revenue +51.6% and higher average daily populations vs prior year), and management raised per‑share guidance. However, near‑term challenges include ICE population volatility during Q2, margin pressure from under‑occupied reactivations, and uncertainty around contract adjustments tied to the facility sales which reduced full‑year EBITDA guidance. Overall the positives (major balance sheet improvement, buyback capacity, per‑share upside and revenue gains) outweigh the near‑term operational headwinds and guidance noise.
Q2-2026 Updates
Positive Updates
Negative Updates
Company Guidance
CoreCivic updated 2026 guidance reflecting the four facility sales and debt paydown: GAAP diluted EPS $15.15–$15.20 (includes significant gain on sale); adjusted diluted EPS (ex‑special items) $1.62–$1.70 (prior $1.53–$1.63); normalized FFO/share $2.61–$2.70 (prior $2.60–$2.70); adjusted EBITDA $440.5–$445.5M (down from $453.8–$461.8M); AFFO $257.5–$271.5M; maintenance CapEx $65–$75M, other CapEx $15M, activation CapEx $35–$40M; G&A $173–$175M; effective tax rate 25–28%. Guidance assumes modestly higher residential populations, incorporates estimated contract adjustments for the sold facilities and the benefit of interest income on residual cash (EBITDA excludes interest‑expense reduction), and does not assume any share repurchases (the board increased the repurchase authorization by $500M to $1.2B with ~$755.8M available); company repaid $608.5M of debt (including $238.5M 4.75% notes) from approximately $1.6B gross (~$1.62B gross, ~$1.6B net) of sales proceeds, resulting in roughly $1B cash on hand, total debt ≈ $739.1M and trailing‑12‑month net debt/adjusted‑EBITDA ~2.9x.
CoreCivic Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income statement trends are constructive (TTM revenue up 6.3% with steady ~9.9% operating margin and ~5.1% net margin), but cash generation is a clear weak spot (TTM free cash flow ~$48M and ~22% of net income). Leverage is manageable (debt-to-equity ~0.86) with improving ROE, yet weaker cash conversion limits flexibility.
Income Statement
72PositiveBalance Sheet
64PositiveCash Flow
48Neutral| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 2.48B | 2.21B | 1.96B | 1.90B | 1.85B | 1.86B |
| Gross Profit | 491.74M | 518.65M | 468.29M | 306.89M | 431.54M | 525.55M |
| EBITDA | 382.70M | 348.31M | 287.39M | 296.10M | 378.18M | 306.38M |
| Net Income | 127.90M | 116.50M | 68.87M | 67.59M | 122.32M | -51.90M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 3.46B | 3.26B | 2.93B | 3.11B | 3.24B | 3.50B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 108.93M | 112.45M | 107.49M | 121.84M | 149.40M | 299.64M |
| Total Debt | 1.35B | 1.22B | 1.01B | 1.21B | 1.39B | 1.69B |
| Total Liabilities | 2.02B | 1.85B | 1.44B | 1.63B | 1.81B | 2.13B |
| Stockholders Equity | 1.44B | 1.41B | 1.49B | 1.48B | 1.43B | 1.37B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 57.31M | 53.97M | 197.98M | 161.65M | 72.19M | 182.35M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 200.16M | 194.59M | 269.15M | 231.90M | 153.58M | 263.23M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -351.06M | -206.08M | -53.82M | -58.87M | 73.04M | 238.42M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 130.75M | 1.82M | -222.18M | -206.24M | -375.16M | -327.71M |
CoreCivic Technical Analysis
Price Trends
Market Momentum
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For CXW, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 30.97 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 31.16, below the 50-day MA of 32.59, and above the 200-day MA of 25.85, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.57 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 47.52 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 66.76 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for CXW.
CoreCivic Risk Analysis
CoreCivic disclosed 43 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. CoreCivic reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Latest Risks Added
0 New RisksCoreCivic Peers Comparison
Overall Rating
ALLE82Outperform
GEO78Outperform
ADT72Outperform- CXW69Neutral
SPCB55Neutral
KSCP45Neutral
Financial Indicators
| Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ALLE | 82Outperform | $16.17B | 23.46 | 32.68% | 1.14% | 10.33% | 8.70% |
| GEO | 78Outperform | $3.67B | 13.12 | 19.30% | ― | 15.32% | 227.66% |
| ADT | 72Outperform | $7.18B | 12.31 | 17.01% | 2.23% | 2.02% | 5.40% |
| CXW | 69Neutral | $3.00B | 25.18 | 8.96% | ― | 24.35% | 32.67% |
| Sector * | 63Neutral | $10.79B | 15.43 | 7.44% | 2.01% | 2.89% | -14.66% |
| SPCB | 55Neutral | $59.92M | 57.69 | 1.94% | ― | 7.23% | -50.82% |
| KSCP | 45Neutral | $10.65M | -0.13 | -152.20% | ― | 88.02% | 63.33% |
* Industrials Sector Average
Performance Comparison
| Show on chart | Ticker | Company Name | Price | Change | % Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CXW | CoreCivic | 30.97 | 14.18 | 84.46% | |
| GEO | Geo Group Inc | 28.07 | 12.66 | 82.15% | |
| ALLE | Allegion PLC | 189.35 | 26.67 | 16.39% | |
| SPCB | SuperCom Ltd. | 9.23 | -0.94 | -9.24% | |
| ADT | Adt, Inc. | 9.85 | 1.94 | 24.56% | |
| KSCP | Knightscope Inc Class A | 0.45 | -3.74 | -89.26% |
CoreCivic Corporate Events
CoreCivic CEO Resigns, Lucibeth Mayberry Named Successor
NegativeCoreCivic announced that President and CEO Patrick D. Swindle resigned from his executive roles and from the board on September 24, 2026, citing health reasons tied to treatment for stage four metastatic pancreatic cancer, after leading the company t...
CoreCivic Announces $500 Million Accelerated Share Repurchase
PositiveOn August 10, 2026, CoreCivic announced it had entered into a $500 million accelerated share repurchase agreement with a financial institution, drawing on its expanded $755.8 million share buyback program approved earlier in the month. The company wi...
CoreCivic boosts Q2 results and financial flexibility
PositiveCoreCivic reported strong financial performance for the second quarter of 2026, with total revenue rising 27.3% year over year to $684.9 million and diluted EPS increasing 5.7% to $0.37, despite net income slipping 3.6% to $37.1 million as the prior-...
CoreCivic Sells Facilities, Highlights Real Estate Value
PositiveOn August 4, 2026, CoreCivic sold its 1,600-bed Prairie Correctional Facility in Appleton, Minnesota and 1,033-bed Midwest Regional Reception Center in Leavenworth, Kansas to the U.S. Department of Homeland Security for a combined gross price of $734...
CoreCivic Announces Early Redemption of 2027 Senior Notes
PositiveOn July 13, 2026, CoreCivic announced it will redeem in full its outstanding 4.750% senior notes due 2027, with a remaining principal balance of $238.468 million, on August 12, 2026, ahead of their original October 15, 2027 maturity. The notes will b...
CoreCivic Completes Major Detention Facility Asset Sale
PositiveOn July 2, 2026, CoreCivic completed the sale of its 2,560-bed California City Detention Facility and 1,994-bed Otay Mesa Detention Center to the U.S. government, through the Department of Homeland Security, for a combined gross price of $1.5 billion...
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.
Date of analysis: Sep 25, 2026