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Commvault Systems (CVLT)
NASDAQ:CVLT
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CommVault Systems (CVLT) AI Stock Analysis

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CVLT

CommVault Systems

(NASDAQ:CVLT)

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Neutral 66 (OpenAI - 5.2)
Rating:66Neutral
Price Target:
$159.00
▲(11.73% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:08/18/26
The score is driven primarily by strong operating/cash-flow performance and a bullish earnings-call outlook (ARR growth, margin expansion, and FCF guidance). These positives are tempered by meaningfully elevated balance-sheet leverage and an expensive valuation (high P/E), with technicals supportive but somewhat extended.
Positive Factors
Recurring Subscription Growth
Rapid subscription ARR growth and a rising recurring-revenue mix improve visibility, retention economics, and customer lifetime value. This transition makes Commvault less dependent on perpetual licenses and supports more durable revenue generation.
Negative Factors
Highly Leveraged Balance Sheet
Very high leverage and a thin equity cushion reduce financial flexibility and increase vulnerability if growth or cash generation weakens. Strong cash flow helps, but a materially more leveraged structure can constrain investment and raise refinancing risk.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Recurring Subscription Growth
Rapid subscription ARR growth and a rising recurring-revenue mix improve visibility, retention economics, and customer lifetime value. This transition makes Commvault less dependent on perpetual licenses and supports more durable revenue generation.
Read all positive factors

CommVault Systems (CVLT) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

CommVault Systems Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description
Commvault Systems, Inc. provides a cyber resilience platform for protecting and recovering data and cloud-native applications in the Americas and internationally. The company offers Operational Recovery, which provides backup, verifiable recovery,...
How the Company Makes Money
Commvault makes money primarily by licensing its software and providing related maintenance/support and services, with a growing emphasis on subscription-based offerings. The key revenue streams typically include: (1) Subscription and term-based s...

CommVault Systems Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Jul 28, 2026
(Q1-2027)
|
% Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Nov 03, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call emphasized strong top-line SaaS and subscription ARR growth, significant margin expansion, record-level profitability metrics, and robust free cash flow — driven by SaaS momentum, product innovation (identity and AI-resilience capabilities), ecosystem expansion (Microsoft partnership), and growing multiproduct adoption. The primary negatives were execution/timing headwinds from hardware supply constraints, modest FX impact, lighter-than-usual convergence from perpetual to subscription in Q1, and the seasonal nature of ARR additions (weighted to H2). These drawbacks were characterized as manageable and largely timing-related rather than structural, and management maintained or raised full-year guidance, indicating confidence in the company's trajectory.
Positive Updates
Subscription ARR Growth
Subscription ARR grew 22% year-over-year to $1.05 billion in Q1, supported by $39 million of net new subscription ARR for the quarter.
Negative Updates
Supply Chain / Hardware Constraints
Hardware availability and higher memory/hardware prices created timing issues on on-prem deals and impacted some term software transactions. Management described these as timing-related headwinds that affected deal cadence.
Read all updates
Q1-2027 Updates
Negative
Subscription ARR Growth
Subscription ARR grew 22% year-over-year to $1.05 billion in Q1, supported by $39 million of net new subscription ARR for the quarter.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Commvault reiterated full‑year fiscal 2027 targets and provided Q2 guidance anchored to its subscription metrics: after a Q1 baseline of $1.05B subscription ARR (up 22%), $424M SaaS ARR (up 38%), $267M subscription revenue (Q1 total revenue $314M), $51M free cash flow (up 71% YoY), subscription NRR 114% (SaaS NRR >120%), 10,000+ SaaS customers and $39M net new subscription ARR in Q1, management guided Q2 subscription revenue of $264M–$268M (≈20% YoY growth at the midpoint) and total revenue of ~$310M with ~20% EBIT margin and ~42M diluted shares; for fiscal 2027 they reaffirmed subscription ARR of $1.20B–$1.21B (≈19% growth at midpoint), expect SaaS ARR to exceed $500M by year end, raised full‑year subscription revenue to $1.119B–$1.129B (≈16% YoY at midpoint), total revenue $1.30B–$1.31B, lifted non‑GAAP EBIT margin to ~21% (up 50 bps), and forecasted $250M–$260M of free cash flow (weighted to H2) while targeting to return at least 60% of annual FCF to shareholders via repurchases.

CommVault Systems Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Income statement and cash flow are solid (rebound to sustained profitability, ~80%+ gross margins, and consistently strong free cash flow), but the balance sheet is a major drag due to sharply higher leverage and a very thin equity cushion, increasing financial risk.
Income Statement
72
Positive
Balance Sheet
28
Negative
Cash Flow
84
Very Positive
BreakdownTTMMar 2026Mar 2025Mar 2024Mar 2023Mar 2022
Income Statement
Total Revenue1.22B1.18B995.62M839.25M784.59M769.59M
Gross Profit983.33M950.22M816.58M687.64M649.19M655.73M
EBITDA104.54M106.27M90.66M90.56M-4.57M54.47M
Net Income68.30M70.66M76.11M168.91M-35.77M33.62M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets1.89B1.89B1.12B943.91M792.60M827.92M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments929.84M899.99M302.10M312.75M287.78M267.51M
Total Debt917.65M917.50M10.95M12.09M12.78M16.05M
Total Liabilities1.84B1.88B793.14M665.83M606.50M572.09M
Stockholders Equity52.05M7.49M325.12M278.08M186.10M255.83M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow258.45M237.15M203.63M199.71M167.05M173.27M
Operating Cash Flow264.67M244.68M207.38M203.80M170.29M177.18M
Investing Cash Flow-40.74M-5.45M-70.40M-5.52M-5.29M-24.44M
Financing Cash Flow352.00M345.30M-147.82M-170.58M-135.58M-276.09M

CommVault Systems Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Neutral
Last Price142.31
Price Trends
50DMA
138.11
Negative
100DMA
119.36
Positive
200DMA
113.14
Positive
Market Momentum
MACD
0.51
Positive
RSI
46.42
Neutral
STOCH
11.40
Positive
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For CVLT, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 142.31 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 134.58, above the 50-day MA of 138.11, and above the 200-day MA of 113.14, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.51 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 46.42 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 11.40 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for CVLT.

CommVault Systems Risk Analysis

CommVault Systems disclosed 36 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. CommVault Systems reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

CommVault Systems Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
80
Outperform
$5.53B17.6648.90%0.45%3.60%48.92%
79
Outperform
$8.93B24.2537.43%17.26%
73
Outperform
$3.86B37.9812.46%24.21%206.42%
69
Neutral
$3.93B216.951.85%24.68%-83.75%
69
Neutral
$7.11B-276.14-2.66%24.90%-233.01%
66
Neutral
$5.46B84.6956.13%15.47%-13.79%
61
Neutral
$37.18B12.37-10.20%1.83%8.50%-7.62%
* Technology Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
CVLT
CommVault Systems
133.81
-47.23
-26.09%
PEGA
Pegasystems
33.56
-19.09
-36.26%
ESTC
Elastic
85.94
5.88
7.34%
MNDY
Monday.com
90.73
-87.16
-49.00%
SRAD
Sportradar Group AG
13.00
-18.63
-58.90%
GTLB
Gitlab
41.67
-3.51
-7.77%

CommVault Systems Corporate Events

Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board ChangesShareholder Meetings
Commvault Shareholders Approve Directors, Compensation and Equity Plan
Positive
Aug 6, 2026
At its Annual Meeting of Stockholders held on August 6, 2026, Commvault Systems shareholders elected seven directors to serve until the 2027 Annual Meeting, reaffirming the company’s existing board leadership and governance structure. Invest...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Aug 18, 2026