Elastic N.V. (ESTC)
NYSE:ESTC
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Elastic
(NYSE:ESTC)
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Rating:79Outperform
Price Target:
$74.00
▲(55.59% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:05/30/26
The score is driven primarily by improving financial quality (stronger cash generation and de-levered balance sheet) and a positive FY27 outlook with margin/FCF expansion supported by accelerating backlog and AI-driven momentum. Technicals are supportive but not fully long-term bullish (still below the 200-day), and valuation is reasonable rather than deeply compelling, with no dividend support.
Positive Factors
Cash generation
Elastic's operating cash flow and free cash flow have strengthened materially and now track reported earnings, supporting reinvestment, buybacks and debt reduction. Durable FCF improves financial flexibility, funds cloud scale investments, and lowers financing risk over a multi‑quarter horizon.
Negative Factors
Execution risk from sales ramp
Management's growth plan is back‑half weighted and depends on ramping sales capacity and securing large deals. If hiring, ramp or deal cadence lags, revenue and margin targets for the year could slip. This execution sensitivity is a durable operational risk over multiple quarters.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Cash generation
Elastic's operating cash flow and free cash flow have strengthened materially and now track reported earnings, supporting reinvestment, buybacks and debt reduction. Durable FCF improves financial flexibility, funds cloud scale investments, and lowers financing risk over a multi‑quarter horizon.
Read all positive factors
Elastic Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Revenue by Geography
Breaks down revenue across different regions, revealing where the company is strongest and where it may face risk or growth potential due to local economic conditions or market share shifts.
Breaks down revenue across different regions, revealing where the company is strongest and where it may face risk or growth potential due to local economic conditions or market share shifts.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyElastic (ESTC) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$6.40B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)2.23M
Price to Earnings (P/E)17.5
Beta (1Y)1.54
Revenue Growth17.26%
EPS GrowthN/A
CountryUS
Employees3,403
SectorTechnology
Sector Strength88
IndustrySoftware - Application
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)3.54
Shares Outstanding103,501,010
10 Day Avg. Volume3,180,793
30 Day Avg. Volume2,234,824
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-0.03
Price to Book (P/B)3.83
Price to Sales (P/S)2.81
P/FCF Ratio15.20
Enterprise Value/Market Cap0.93
Enterprise Value/Revenue3.42
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit4.49
Enterprise Value/Ebitda100.37
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$73.59Price Target Upside54.73% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering27
EPS Forecast (FY)3.21
Revenue Forecast (FY)$1.99B
Elastic Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Elastic N.V., a search company, delivers technology solutions designed to run in public or private clouds in multi-cloud environments. It primarily offers Elastic Stack, a set of software products that ingest and store data from various sources an...
How the Company Makes Money
Elastic primarily makes money by selling subscriptions and cloud services related to its Elastic Stack and associated solutions. The company’s main revenue stream is subscription-based: customers pay for access to paid tiers that include advanced ...
Elastic Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:May 28, 2026
(Q4-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Aug 27, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call conveys a predominantly positive operational and strategic picture: strong backlog (CRPO/RPO) acceleration, steady revenue and subscription growth, margin expansion, robust adjusted free cash flow, large customer wins, and notable AI product traction and adoption. Near‑term variability is acknowledged — driven by a shift toward cloud commitments that delay some revenue recognition, a flattish monthly SMB cloud cohort, reliance on ramped sales execution for back‑half acceleration, and a one‑time GAAP tax benefit that clouds GAAP comparability. Overall, strengths in AI positioning, product differentiation, and improving unit economics outweigh the short‑term timing and mix headwinds.Positive Updates
Accelerating Backlog and Contract Metrics (CRPO / RPO)
Q4 CRPO grew to $1.2B (20% YoY) and RPO accelerated to $1.98B (28% YoY). Non-current RPO (beyond 12 months) grew 43% YoY, signaling stronger multi‑year commitments and backlog that should convert to revenue over the next 12+ months.
Negative Updates
Cloud Commitment Mix Impacted Q4 Recognized Revenue
A larger mix of cloud (Elastic Cloud) commitments in Q4 shifted revenue recognition toward future periods (cloud commitments ramp over time), which depressed in‑quarter recognized revenue despite stronger commitments and backlog.
Read all updates
Q4-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Accelerating Backlog and Contract Metrics (CRPO / RPO)
Q4 CRPO grew to $1.2B (20% YoY) and RPO accelerated to $1.98B (28% YoY). Non-current RPO (beyond 12 months) grew 43% YoY, signaling stronger multi‑year commitments and backlog that should convert to revenue over the next 12+ months.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Elastic's guidance for FY27 calls for Q1 total revenue of $469–$470M (≈13.1% y/y at midpoint; 12.8% cc), sales‑led subscription revenue of $392–$393M (≈15.9% y/y; 15.6% cc), non‑GAAP operating margin of ~14%, and non‑GAAP diluted EPS of $0.57–$0.59 on 106–107M diluted shares. For the full year FY27 they expect total revenue of $1.985–$2.0B (≈14.6% y/y at midpoint; 14.5% cc), sales‑led subscription revenue of $1.673–$1.688B (≈16.9% y/y; 16.8% cc), non‑GAAP operating margin of ~19%, non‑GAAP diluted EPS of $3.21–$3.29 on 107.5–108.5M shares, and adjusted free cash flow margin of ~21.5% (ex‑acquisitions/one‑offs). The company expects to expand operating margin by ~2.5 percentage points in FY27, remain net headcount positive, see Q1 as the lowest‑growth quarter with acceleration into Q4, and reaffirmed medium‑term targets of roughly 25% non‑GAAP operating margin and >20% sales‑led subscription growth by FY29.Elastic Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
72
Positive
Balance Sheet
83
Very Positive
Cash Flow
88
Very Positive
| Breakdown | Apr 2026 | Apr 2025 | Apr 2024 | Apr 2023 | Apr 2022 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 1.74B | 1.48B | 1.27B | 1.07B | 862.37M |
| Gross Profit | 1.32B | 1.10B | 937.24M | 772.36M | 630.18M |
| EBITDA | -21.64M | 6.05M | -78.63M | -171.49M | -157.34M |
| Net Income | 367.77M | -108.11M | 61.72M | -236.16M | -203.85M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 3.15B | 2.59B | 2.24B | 1.74B | 1.64B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 1.37B | 1.40B | 1.08B | 915.21M | 860.95M |
| Total Debt | 591.56M | 595.01M | 593.70M | 594.23M | 594.22M |
| Total Liabilities | 1.88B | 1.67B | 1.50B | 1.34B | 1.23B |
| Stockholders Equity | 1.28B | 927.23M | 738.18M | 398.90M | 415.43M |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 321.80M | 261.82M | 145.31M | 32.98M | -1.75M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 326.89M | 266.17M | 148.76M | 35.66M | 5.67M |
| Investing Cash Flow | 26.07M | -118.67M | -287.96M | -272.95M | -127.27M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -312.27M | 40.95M | 40.05M | 17.47M | 602.13M |
Elastic Technical Analysis
Positive
47.56
Price Trends
51.59
Positive
55.95
Positive
69.18
Negative
Market Momentum
3.90
Negative
60.26
Neutral
67.56
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For ESTC, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 47.56 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 56.52, below the 50-day MA of 51.59, and below the 200-day MA of 69.18, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 3.90 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 60.26 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 67.56 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for ESTC.
Elastic Risk Analysis
Elastic disclosed 75 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Elastic reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Elastic Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
79 Outperform | $6.40B | 17.52 | 37.43% | ― | 17.26% | ― | |
69 Neutral | $5.80B | 17.19 | 50.21% | 0.16% | 3.50% | 75.14% | |
67 Neutral | $5.37B | 10.25 | 14.03% | ― | 9.29% | 18.05% | |
65 Neutral | $4.90B | 72.30 | 35.35% | ― | 18.89% | -7.44% | |
64 Neutral | $12.73B | -18.85 | -21.33% | ― | 7.55% | -39.50% | |
61 Neutral | $37.18B | 12.37 | -10.20% | 1.83% | 8.50% | -7.62% | |
47 Neutral | $3.66B | -24.86 | -12.16% | ― | 31.25% | 56.23% |
* Technology Sector Average
ESTC
Elastic
61.79
-23.92
-27.91%
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Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.