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Custom Truck One Source
(NYSE:CTOS)
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Rating:56Neutral
Price Target:
$9.50
▼(-1.55% Downside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:10/27/26
CTOS scores mid-range primarily because strong, improving forward outlook from the latest earnings call (raised guidance, better rental KPIs, and clearer free-cash-flow/deleveraging plan) is offset by weaker underlying financial statement consistency (sharp TTM revenue decline, thin net margin, historically high leverage, and volatile free cash flow). Technicals are also a headwind with the stock trading below key moving averages and negative MACD, while valuation is constrained by a very high P/E and no dividend support.
Positive Factors
Rental fleet strength
High utilization and record equipment on rent indicate strong customer demand and productive fleet deployment. This supports recurring rental revenue, improves operating leverage, and provides a durable base for growth as utility and transmission investment expands.
Negative Factors
Elevated leverage
Although leverage is declining, a 3.70x net leverage ratio remains substantial and limits financial flexibility. Debt service and deleveraging needs may constrain capital allocation, reduce resilience during weaker demand, and require sustained cash generation before balance-sheet risk materially eases.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Rental fleet strength
High utilization and record equipment on rent indicate strong customer demand and productive fleet deployment. This supports recurring rental revenue, improves operating leverage, and provides a durable base for growth as utility and transmission investment expands.
Read all positive factors
Custom Truck One Source Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Revenue By Segment
Details revenue contributions from each business segment, revealing growth drivers and diversification of income sources.
Details revenue contributions from each business segment, revealing growth drivers and diversification of income sources.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyCustom Truck One Source (CTOS) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$2.06B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)882.75K
Price to Earnings (P/E)96.1
Beta (1Y)1.40
Revenue Growth7.03%
EPS GrowthN/A
CountryUS
Employees2,500
SectorIndustrials
Sector Strength72
IndustryRental & Leasing Services
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.09
Shares Outstanding227,505,540
10 Day Avg. Volume795,684
30 Day Avg. Volume882,745
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-2.47
Price to Book (P/B)1.61
Price to Sales (P/S)0.67
P/FCF Ratio-12.13
Enterprise Value/Market Cap2.55
Enterprise Value/Revenue2.58
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit12.79
Enterprise Value/Ebitda11.64
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$13.00Price Target Upside34.72% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering5
EPS Forecast (FY)0.14
Revenue Forecast (FY)$2.12B
Custom Truck One Source Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Custom Truck One Source, Inc. (CTOS) specializes in providing comprehensive services for specialty equipment across North America, serving crucial industries such as electric utility (transmission and distribution), telecommunications, rail, and o...
How the Company Makes Money
CTOS makes money through multiple equipment-lifecycle revenue streams. (1) Equipment rentals: CTOS generates recurring revenue by renting specialty trucks and heavy equipment to customers that prefer flexible access to fleets without owning the as...
Custom Truck One Source Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Aug 03, 2026
(Q2-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Mar 11, 2027
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call conveyed strong operational and financial momentum: record revenue, sizeable adjusted EBITDA growth, robust SER rental KPIs (utilization, OEC on rent, yield), record STEM quarterly sales, upgraded full-year guidance, and clear deleveraging and cash generation plans. Headwinds were present but largely manageable — a sequential backlog dip from record deliveries, temporary inventory buildup due to strategic prebuys, modest STEM margin pressure from mix, regulatory cost risk from EPA '27 NOx changes, and still-elevated but improving leverage. Overall, positives materially outweigh the negatives.Positive Updates
Record Quarterly Revenue and Strong EBITDA Expansion
Revenue of $563 million in Q2 2026, up 10% year-over-year; adjusted EBITDA of $117 million, up 25% year-over-year, reflecting margin and operating leverage improvements.
Negative Updates
Sequential Backlog Decline in Q2
New sales order backlog ended Q2 at $322 million, down $89 million sequentially from Q1 due to record Q2 deliveries (backlog measured at ~3.5 months, slightly below the 4–6 month target).
Read all updates
Q2-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Record Quarterly Revenue and Strong EBITDA Expansion
Revenue of $563 million in Q2 2026, up 10% year-over-year; adjusted EBITDA of $117 million, up 25% year-over-year, reflecting margin and operating leverage improvements.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management raised full-year 2026 guidance to consolidated revenue of $2.1–$2.2 billion (up 8%–13% YoY) and adjusted EBITDA of $437.5–$455 million (up 14%–19% YoY), with SER revenue now expected at $850–$875 million and STEM revenue at $1.63–$1.70 billion (STEM third‑party new sales growth 3%–10%, overall STEM sales down marginally to up 3%); they plan net rental CapEx of $170–$200 million (vs. >$250 million in 2025) and non‑rental CapEx of $40–$50 million, expect mid‑single‑digit net OEC growth, more than $50 million of levered free cash flow, and to reduce net leverage from 3.85x (net debt $1.66B; LTM adjusted EBITDA >$431M) to meaningfully below 4x by year‑end 2026 and toward 3x in 2027; Q2 rental KPIs included 81.6% utilization, $1.37B average OEC on rent (Q2 end OEC ~ $1.68B), 39.4% on‑rent yield and a fleet age just over 3 years; they expect Q3 revenue and adjusted EBITDA to be up year‑over‑year but below Q2, a ~48%/52% H1/H2 split, and Q4 to remain the seasonally strongest quarter.Custom Truck One Source Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
56
Neutral
Balance Sheet
48
Neutral
Cash Flow
52
Neutral
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 2.04B | 1.94B | 1.80B | 1.87B | 1.57B | 1.17B |
| Gross Profit | 410.62M | 367.36M | 343.43M | 410.09M | 340.39M | 165.65M |
| EBITDA | 450.89M | 397.67M | 380.66M | 414.78M | 359.12M | 104.84M |
| Net Income | 21.42M | -31.05M | -28.66M | 50.71M | 38.91M | -181.50M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 3.60B | 3.74B | 3.50B | 3.37B | 2.94B | 2.68B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 10.29M | 6.27M | 3.81M | 10.31M | 14.36M | 35.90M |
| Total Debt | 2.43B | 2.42B | 2.43B | 2.20B | 1.83B | 1.60B |
| Total Liabilities | 2.79B | 2.93B | 2.64B | 2.45B | 2.05B | 1.83B |
| Stockholders Equity | 815.96M | 809.10M | 861.31M | 917.20M | 888.44M | 858.51M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | -109.27M | -107.59M | -353.63M | -511.64M | -358.74M | -31.19M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 314.00M | 349.39M | 44.68M | -147.45M | -17.95M | 157.20M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -248.88M | -282.46M | -187.49M | -176.60M | -218.94M | -1.43B |
| Financing Cash Flow | -61.14M | -64.55M | 135.58M | 319.44M | 217.82M | 1.30B |
Custom Truck One Source Technical Analysis
Negative
9.65
Price Trends
9.39
Negative
10.00
Negative
8.77
Positive
Market Momentum
-0.11
Positive
44.90
Neutral
44.71
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For CTOS, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 9.65 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 9.33, above the 50-day MA of 9.39, and above the 200-day MA of 8.77, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.11 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 44.90 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 44.71 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for CTOS.
Custom Truck One Source Risk Analysis
Custom Truck One Source disclosed 24 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Custom Truck One Source reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Custom Truck One Source Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (63)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
74 Outperform | $32.17B | 23.72 | 18.46% | 1.34% | ― | ― | |
68 Neutral | $10.35B | 20.62 | 17.68% | 1.38% | 3.16% | 10.17% | |
63 Neutral | $10.79B | 15.43 | 7.44% | 2.01% | 2.89% | -14.66% | |
62 Neutral | $5.84B | 16.27 | 13.35% | 1.57% | 22.81% | 15.43% | |
56 Neutral | $2.06B | 96.08 | 2.66% | ― | 7.03% | ― | |
51 Neutral | $4.28B | 87.15 | 2.56% | 2.19% | 28.50% | 67.75% | |
50 Neutral | $4.06B | 170.14 | 5.46% | ― | 18.16% | ― |
* Industrials Sector Average
CTOS
Custom Truck One Source
9.01
2.27
33.68%
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EQPT
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SUNB
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79.40
6.67
9.16%
Custom Truck One Source Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Custom Truck One Source Posts Record Q3 2026 Results
Positive
Oct 26, 2026
On October 26, 2026, Custom Truck One Source reported record third-quarter 2026 results, highlighted by revenue of $495.2 million, up 2.7% year over year, and a 20.1% jump in rental revenue despite more than $20 million of STEM deliveries shifting...
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Custom Truck One Source Raises 2026 Outlook After Record Q2
Positive
Aug 3, 2026
On August 3, 2026, Custom Truck One Source reported record second-quarter 2026 revenue of $563.4 million, up 10.2% year over year, driven by strong transmission and distribution markets and robust performance across both segments. The company also...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.