Carrefour SA (CRRFY) AI Stock Analysis

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Carrefour SA

(Other OTC:CRRFY)

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Rating:55Neutral

Price Target:$3.00▲(3.02% Upside)

Action:reiterated

Date:08/22/26

The score is held back primarily by weakening financial fundamentals in 2025 (revenue decline, margin compression, and higher leverage), partially offset by continued positive cash generation. Technicals are broadly neutral with limited momentum, while valuation is a key positive due to a moderate P/E and a high dividend yield.

Positive Factors

Diversified retail modelCarrefour’s presence across multiple store formats, wholesale, and digital channels broadens customer access and reduces reliance on any single shopping occasion. This diversified operating model can support resilience as consumer preferences shift between convenience, value, and online grocery over the coming quarters.

Negative Factors

Revenue and margin pressureThe sharp 2025 revenue decline and simultaneous compression in gross and net margins indicate weaker operating economics, not merely slower growth. Thin profitability leaves limited room to absorb further cost or pricing pressure, making earnings recovery dependent on restoring sales and margin performance.

Carrefour SA (CRRFY) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Market Cap: $10.44B
Dividend Yield: 9.40%
Average Volume (3M): 187.25K
Price to Earnings (P/E): 11.6
Beta (1Y): 0.14
Revenue Growth: -1.06%
EPS Growth: 145.25%
Country: US
Employees: 298,604
Sector: Consumer Defensive
Sector Strength: 62
Industry: Grocery Stores

Carrefour SA Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Carrefour S.A., a global retail giant established in Massy, France, in 1959, manages a comprehensive network of stores and digital channels across various countries, including France, Spain, Italy, Belgium, Poland, Romania, Brazil, Argentina, and Tai...

How the Company Makes Money

Carrefour primarily makes money by selling goods through its retail and online channels. Its core revenue stream is merchandise sales: the company purchases products from suppliers (national brands and local producers) and resells them to consumers t...

Carrefour SA Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Feb 16, 2026(Q4-2025)|% Change Since:-17.48%|Next Earnings Date:Feb 16, 2027

Earnings Call SentimentPositive

The call presented a broadly constructive operational and financial picture: strong execution in France (margin milestone and market-share gains) and Spain (top-line and margin expansion), meaningful cost savings (EUR 1.1bn) and solid cash generation (net free cash flow ≈ EUR 1.565bn ex-Italy). Management confirmed controlled Cora & Match integration, tangible retail and e‑commerce wins in Latin America, and a shareholder-friendly dividend policy. Offsets included short-term dilution from Cora & Match (EUR 120m), notable FX and Argentina headwinds (~EUR 100m each), the Italy exit impact (net discontinued loss EUR 657m), a decline in gross margin (-22 bps) and stable EBITDA (no growth). Management expressed confidence for 2026 and reiterated targets (including EUR 130m synergies by 2027 and a EUR 1.7bn free cash flow ambition), positioning the group to improve underlying performance. Overall, positives in execution, cost discipline and cash generation slightly outweigh near-term headwinds and one-off impacts.

Positive Updates

France — Margin Milestone and Market Share Gain

Carrefour France core operating margin reached 3.0% (milestone), legacy recurring operating income grew 11.3% in 2025 and margin expanded by 31 basis points. Group market share in France rose to 22% (highest since 2015). Customer satisfaction improved (NPS +3 points in Q4) and Carrefour opened a record 456 new convenience stores in 2025.

Negative Updates

Cora & Match — Short-Term Dilutive Impact

Cora & Match posted a recurring operating loss of EUR 120 million in 2025, which includes EUR 95 million of non-recurring integration costs. Excluding those costs, Cora & Match still showed a negative recurring operating income (~EUR 25 million) in 2025 and compression of gross margin versus historical levels due to price alignment and increased promotions.

Company Guidance

Management reiterated confident 2026 guidance and quantified targets: a net free cash flow target of €1.7bn for 2026 (versus €1.565bn in 2025 excluding Italy), supported by a €75m benefit from Brazilian debt refinancing and a cost‑savings program already delivering €1.1bn pa (ex‑Italy); they confirmed €130m of Cora & Match synergies by 2027 (Cora integration in 2025: €145m OpEx vs €150m expected, €85m CapEx vs €100m expected, €95m non‑recurring costs; Cora ROI −€120m in 2025 or −€25m ex‑one‑offs) and said no further integration costs are expected in 2026. Capital allocation guidance: propose ordinary dividend €0.97/sh (+5.4% y/y) and, subject to Romania closing (EV €823m, 4.8x 2025 EBITDA; Romania FY25 margin 1%, NFF −€53m), a special €150m (€0.21/sh) for a total €1.18/sh (~8.3% cash yield on 31‑Dec‑2025 price). Other reference metrics cited on the call include FY25 recurring operating income €2.158bn (2.6% of net sales), core recurring margin 2.9% (France core 3%), adjusted EPS €1.60 and net debt ~€4bn; more 2026 detail to be provided with tomorrow’s strategic plan.

Carrefour SA Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Financial performance is pressured: 2025 revenue fell (-8.84%) and profitability deteriorated sharply (net margin down to 0.38% and gross margin down to 16.61%). Balance-sheet risk increased as leverage rose materially (debt-to-equity 2.31 vs. 1.47 in 2024) and ROE compressed to 2.79%. The main support is still-positive cash generation (2025 operating cash flow €3.41B; free cash flow €1.95B), though both declined and FCF growth was negative (-11.49%).

Income Statement

46Neutral

Balance Sheet

42Neutral

Cash Flow

55Neutral

Financial statement breakdown
Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	82.15B	80.71B	87.27B	84.91B	83.09B	71.76B
Gross Profit	13.64B	13.41B	16.97B	15.65B	14.34B	13.03B
EBITDA	5.34B	4.42B	4.30B	4.34B	4.79B	4.30B
Net Income	745.27M	306.41M	723.00M	1.66B	1.35B	1.07B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	54.43B	55.19B	57.36B	56.17B	56.55B	47.67B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	5.29B	6.42B	6.89B	6.68B	5.43B	3.99B
Total Debt	16.08B	25.33B	15.89B	20.09B	19.23B	15.87B
Total Liabilities	42.62B	43.53B	44.88B	42.78B	43.37B	35.84B
Stockholders Equity	11.07B	10.97B	10.82B	11.54B	11.14B	10.25B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	2.02B	1.95B	2.43B	2.80B	2.34B	2.08B
Operating Cash Flow	3.53B	3.41B	4.20B	4.65B	4.22B	3.66B
Investing Cash Flow	-626.53M	-1.11B	-2.37B	-739.00M	-2.13B	-1.33B
Financing Cash Flow	-3.21B	-2.49B	-1.08B	-2.72B	-326.00M	-3.06B

Carrefour SA Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis SentimentNegative

Last Price2.91

Price Trends

50DMA3.59Negative

100DMA3.64Negative

200DMA3.58Negative

Market Momentum

MACD-0.20Positive

RSI22.76Positive

STOCH-0.21Positive

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For CRRFY, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 2.91 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 3.37, below the 50-day MA of 3.59, and below the 200-day MA of 3.58, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.20 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 22.76 is Positive, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of -0.21 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for CRRFY.

Carrefour SA Peers Comparison

Overall Rating

UnderperformOutperform

Sector (62)

Financial Indicators

CRRFY against its peers
Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
Sector *	62Neutral	$20.33B	14.63	-3.31%	3.23%	1.93%	-12.26%
KR	61Neutral	$39.43B	36.09	17.17%	2.16%	1.58%	-53.21%
WMK	61Neutral	$1.84B	18.93	7.15%	1.83%	4.50%	-3.08%
SFM	55Neutral	$4.58B	9.47	33.82%	―	5.25%	0.53%
CRRFY	55Neutral	$10.63B	11.62	6.81%	9.40%	-1.06%	145.25%
ACI	54Neutral	$6.15B	-436.00	-2.78%	5.05%	2.26%	-106.73%
GO	53Neutral	$1.28B	-3.34	-40.07%	―	5.12%	-4889.01%

* Consumer Defensive Sector Average

Performance Comparison

CRRFY and its peers over the selected period
Ticker	Company Name	Price	Change	% Change
CRRFY	Carrefour	2.91	0.09	3.37%
KR	Kroger Company	66.76	4.73	7.62%
WMK	Weis Markets	74.41	11.87	18.98%
SFM	Sprouts Farmers Market	49.70	-34.12	-40.71%
GO	Grocery Outlet Holding	12.93	-1.31	-9.20%
ACI	Albertsons Companies, Inc.	13.08	-3.72	-22.12%

Glossary

BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.

Date of analysis: Aug 22, 2026

Carrefour SA AI Stock Analysis