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Coty
(NYSE:COTY)
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Rating:60Neutral
Price Target:
$3.00
▲(12.36% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:08/20/26
COTY scores around the middle primarily due to mixed fundamentals: strong and improving cash flow and a better leverage profile are offset by renewed net losses. Technicals add support with a clear uptrend and positive momentum, while valuation is constrained by negative earnings (negative P/E). Earnings-call messaging is constructive but remains burdened by execution risk and the financial impact/timing uncertainty around the Gucci transition.
Positive Factors
Revenue growth and resilient gross margins
A larger revenue base and consistently high gross margins indicate durable brand pricing power and product economics. If Coty restores underlying growth, this margin structure can support operating leverage and sustained cash generation.
Negative Factors
Return to substantial net losses
Large recent losses weaken earnings quality and can erode equity if they persist, despite healthy gross margins and cash flow. The gap between reported profitability and cash generation also raises uncertainty about the durability of underlying returns.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Revenue growth and resilient gross margins
A larger revenue base and consistently high gross margins indicate durable brand pricing power and product economics. If Coty restores underlying growth, this margin structure can support operating leverage and sustained cash generation.
Read all positive factors
Coty Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Revenue by Geography
Breaks down revenue across different regions, revealing where Coty is strongest and where it may face risk or growth potential due to local economic conditions or market share shifts.
Breaks down revenue across different regions, revealing where Coty is strongest and where it may face risk or growth potential due to local economic conditions or market share shifts.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyCoty (COTY) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$2.58B
Dividend Yield4.38%
Average Volume (3M)7.77M
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)1.05
Revenue Growth-1.46%
EPS Growth-60.87%
CountryUS
Employees11,335
SectorConsumer Defensive
Sector Strength42
IndustryHousehold & Personal Products
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)-0.70
Shares Outstanding880,686,460
10 Day Avg. Volume6,267,940
30 Day Avg. Volume7,773,352
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-0.05
Price to Book (P/B)0.61
Price to Sales (P/S)0.33
P/FCF Ratio5.44
Enterprise Value/Market Cap<0.01
Enterprise Value/Revenue<0.01
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit<0.01
Enterprise Value/Ebitda<0.01
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$2.57Price Target Upside-3.93% Downside
Rating ConsensusHold
Number of Analyst Covering11
EPS Forecast (FY)0.33
Revenue Forecast (FY)$5.72B
Coty Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Coty Inc., together with its subsidiaries, manufactures, markets, distributes, and sells branded beauty products worldwide. It operates through two segments: the Prestige and Consumer Beauty. The company provides fragrance, color cosmetics, and sk...
How the Company Makes Money
Coty makes money primarily by selling beauty products to retailers, distributors, and directly to consumers, generating revenue when its products are shipped/sold through these channels. Its key revenue streams are (1) fragrance sales, including b...
Coty Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Aug 19, 2026
(Q4-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Nov 10, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The call conveyed cautious optimism: clear operational actions and early wins (notably in U.S. consumer, Brazil and Travel Retail), SKU rationalization, lowered CapEx and identified financial mitigants (tariff refund potential and Kering compensation) provide constructive upside. However, the company faces material near-term challenges — sell-out trailing the category, inventory/obsolescence pressures, the upcoming Gucci departure (low double-digit % of sales) and slower implementation in Europe — which require significant restructuring and create execution and timing risk. Management presented a balanced, pragmatic plan but significant uncertainties remain for FY27.Positive Updates
U.S. Consumer Turnaround - CoverGirl & Sally Hansen
Focused advertising and concentrated investment in core franchises drove meaningful sell-out improvement in the U.S.; Sally Hansen is now growing ahead of the market in value and CoverGirl has substantially reduced its gap versus the category through focused TV and innovation (e.g., Insta-Dri).
Negative Updates
Sell-Out Trailing the Category
Sell-out has been trailing the category for the last couple of quarters, leading to lower sell-in, excess inventory, returns and obsolescence that contributed to EBITDA pressure; management expects a transition year (FY27) and cannot precisely predict how quickly sell-out will close the gap.
Read all updates
Q4-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
U.S. Consumer Turnaround - CoverGirl & Sally Hansen
Focused advertising and concentrated investment in core franchises drove meaningful sell-out improvement in the U.S.; Sally Hansen is now growing ahead of the market in value and CoverGirl has substantially reduced its gap versus the category through focused TV and innovation (e.g., Insta-Dri).
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Coty framed fiscal 2027 as a transition year (Q1 guidance only) and said it is targeting FY‑27 EBITDA and free cash flow “close to” fiscal 2026 levels, while implementing measures to drive sell‑out and market‑share (now a key KPI tied into FY‑27 incentives); specific metrics cited include $20–30 million of oil‑related costs assumed at $90–$100/bbl, a potential $30 million tariff refund as upside, a planned ~20% SKU reduction on shelves (timed with spring/fall resets), lower CapEx, and a Consumer Beauty strategic review targeted for completion by calendar 2026 — with the goal of returning the underlying portfolio (ex‑Gucci, which represented a low‑double‑digit % of sales) to growth in FY‑28 alongside restructuring/productivity savings.Coty Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
41
Neutral
Balance Sheet
58
Neutral
Cash Flow
72
Positive
| Breakdown | Jun 2026 | Jun 2025 | Jun 2024 | Jun 2023 | Jun 2022 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 5.81B | 5.89B | 6.12B | 5.55B | 5.30B |
| Gross Profit | 3.65B | 3.82B | 3.94B | 3.55B | 3.38B |
| EBITDA | 27.20M | 949.90M | 1.00B | 964.90M | 856.30M |
| Net Income | -604.80M | -367.90M | 89.40M | 508.20M | 259.50M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 10.20B | 11.91B | 12.08B | 12.66B | 12.12B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 176.10M | 257.10M | 300.80M | 246.90M | 233.30M |
| Total Debt | 3.44B | 4.25B | 4.12B | 4.55B | 4.78B |
| Total Liabilities | 6.82B | 7.95B | 7.83B | 8.43B | 8.56B |
| Stockholders Equity | 3.13B | 3.69B | 3.97B | 3.95B | 3.30B |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 348.20M | 277.60M | 369.40M | 402.90M | 552.50M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 537.80M | 492.60M | 614.60M | 625.70M | 726.60M |
| Investing Cash Flow | 539.00M | -128.40M | -226.20M | -118.20M | 269.70M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -1.16B | -426.80M | -336.70M | -469.30M | -1.03B |
Coty Technical Analysis
Positive
2.67
Price Trends
2.62
Positive
2.39
Positive
2.60
Positive
Market Momentum
0.07
Negative
59.29
Neutral
83.18
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For COTY, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 2.67 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 2.81, above the 50-day MA of 2.62, and above the 200-day MA of 2.60, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.07 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 59.29 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 83.18 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for COTY.
Coty Risk Analysis
Coty disclosed 44 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Coty reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Coty Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (62)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
81 Outperform | $3.74B | 21.61 | 19.15% | 2.83% | 2.93% | 4.24% | |
69 Neutral | $2.04B | 26.27 | 4.22% | 2.15% | 0.82% | 23.29% | |
68 Neutral | $6.47B | 104.17 | 5.18% | ― | 31.23% | -42.14% | |
62 Neutral | $20.33B | 14.63 | -3.31% | 3.23% | 1.93% | -12.26% | |
60 Neutral | $2.58B | -3.97 | -18.06% | 4.38% | -1.46% | -60.87% | |
58 Neutral | $1.33B | -13.86 | -6.27% | 2.17% | -7.00% | -246.78% | |
57 Neutral | $37.58B | 203.38 | 4.63% | 1.38% | 5.51% | ― |
* Consumer Defensive Sector Average
COTY
Coty
2.76
-1.49
-35.06%
EL
The Estée Lauder Companies
101.69
14.24
16.28%
IPAR
Inter Parfums
113.01
0.90
0.80%
SPB
Spectrum Brands Holdings
87.48
32.93
60.38%
EPC
Edgewell Personal Care
27.71
5.81
26.52%
ELF
e.l.f. Beauty
104.31
-34.52
-24.86%
Coty Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyLegal ProceedingsM&A Transactions
Coty to End Gucci Beauty License, Redeploy Capital
Positive
Jul 7, 2026
On July 7, 2026, Coty announced an agreement with Kering to terminate and transition the Gucci Beauty license roughly one year ahead of schedule, with the license now set to end on June 30, 2027, subject to a possible extension at Kering’s r...
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board Changes
Coty Announces Resignation of Chief People and Purpose Officer
Neutral
Jul 2, 2026
Coty Inc. reported that on June 30, 2026, Chief People and Purpose Officer Priya Srinivasan submitted her resignation, with her departure scheduled to take effect on August 31, 2026. The company stated that Srinivasan’s resignation does not ...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.