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Caledonia Mining
(NYSE MKT:CMCL)
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Rating:80Outperform
Price Target:
$25.00
▲(33.98% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:08/10/26
The score is driven primarily by strong financial performance (high profitability and a conservatively levered balance sheet) and attractive valuation (low P/E with a supported dividend). Technicals are constructive but look stretched short-term (high Stochastic/upper-range RSI and still below the 200-day average). The latest call was broadly positive on operations and liquidity, but higher unit-cost guidance and Bilboes funding/execution risk temper the upside.
Positive Factors
High Profitability & Margins
TTM gross and net margins and ROE near 23% show the operating asset converts revenue into strong accounting returns. Durable margin strength improves cash generation, funds sustaining capex, supports dividends and provides a buffer against commodity swings over the next 2–6 months.
Negative Factors
Rising Unit Costs and AISC
Material upward revisions to on‑mine costs and AISC reduce per‑ounce margins and free cash flow. If these cost pressures persist, they will compress the company’s ability to self‑fund projects, sustain dividends and absorb price downturns, increasing medium‑term earnings sensitivity.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
High Profitability & Margins
TTM gross and net margins and ROE near 23% show the operating asset converts revenue into strong accounting returns. Durable margin strength improves cash generation, funds sustaining capex, supports dividends and provides a buffer against commodity swings over the next 2–6 months.
Read all positive factors
Caledonia Mining (CMCL) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$441.61M
Dividend Yield2.46%
Average Volume (3M)272.54K
Price to Earnings (P/E)7.2
Beta (1Y)1.34
Revenue Growth35.48%
EPS Growth72.78%
CountryUS
Employees2,357
SectorBasic Materials
Sector Strength58
IndustryGold
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)3.33
Shares Outstanding19,335,080
10 Day Avg. Volume260,654
30 Day Avg. Volume272,542
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.05
Price to Book (P/B)1.97
Price to Sales (P/S)2.01
P/FCF Ratio11.77
Enterprise Value/Market Cap<0.01
Enterprise Value/Revenue<0.01
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit<0.01
Enterprise Value/Ebitda<0.01
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$45.00Price Target Upside141.16% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering1
EPS Forecast (FY)2.97
Revenue Forecast (FY)$315.11M
Caledonia Mining Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Caledonia Mining Corporation Plc primarily operates a gold mine in Jersey. It also engages in the exploration and development of mineral properties for precious metals. The company holds a 64% interest in the Blanket Mine, a gold mine located in Z...
How the Company Makes Money
Caledonia Mining makes money primarily by producing and selling gold. The company extracts gold-bearing ore at its operating mine(s), processes the ore to produce gold doré, and then generates revenue when that gold is sold (typically with sales p...
Caledonia Mining Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Aug 10, 2026
(Q2-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Nov 16, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call conveyed a positive operational recovery and strong financial results driven by higher realised gold prices, improved production grades and robust liquidity after successful equity/debt instruments. Management demonstrated clear project progress at Bilboes, meaningful exploration upside (K‑Pits, Motapa) and strong safety performance. Counterbalancing this are higher unit costs (notably AISC and on‑mine cost per ounce), several one-off accounting and distribution charges, electricity cost increases, supply‑chain/timing uncertainty for plant upgrades, and a material funding requirement for Bilboes that still needs to be fully syndicate-backed. Overall, the positives (strong cash position, pricing tailwind, project & exploration progress, funding steps already completed) appear to outweigh the near-term cost and timing headwinds, though execution risk on funding and capital project delivery remains.Positive Updates
Production Recovery and Operational Improvements
Production rose 18% in Q2 versus Q1 driven by improved access to higher-grade mining areas and operating changes (7-day work week), with blasting days up 18% and targeting ~3.1 g/t head grade for the remainder of the year (Q2 grade ~2.88 g/t).
Negative Updates
Lower Ounces Produced and Sold
Ounces produced and sold were down for both the three- and six-month periods versus comparatives, negatively impacting unit metrics and per-ounce results.
Read all updates
Q2-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Production Recovery and Operational Improvements
Production rose 18% in Q2 versus Q1 driven by improved access to higher-grade mining areas and operating changes (7-day work week), with blasting days up 18% and targeting ~3.1 g/t head grade for the remainder of the year (Q2 grade ~2.88 g/t).
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Guidance from the call stressed near‑term operational recovery and updated financial and project targets: Q2 grade improved to 2.88 g/t (Q1 2.5 g/t) with a target run‑rate ~3.1–3.16 g/t for the remainder of 2026, production was up 18% Q2 vs Q1, blasting days +18% after moving to a 7‑day week, and tail grade ~0.2 g/t; short‑term processing includes ~200 t/day via the Lima plant from September and an Alluvion upgrade to treat ~40 t of very high‑grade material (600–700 g/t) yielding ≈1,200 oz over Sep–Dec, while longer‑term plant works (front‑end crushers, an additional ~2× CIL tank, BM3 ball mill commissioned in June and a 3‑t elution vessel) aim to lift capacity toward ~990,000 tpa (costing about $3.5m for the CIL/crusher package, phased through late 2026/2027). Financial guidance was revised to on‑mine cash costs $1,600–$1,800/oz (up $100) and AISC $2,500–$2,700/oz (up $400); sustaining CapEx rose from $26.6m to $48m (including a 132 kV power line and AC/DC conversion) while total 2026 CapEx softened from $162m to $103m as Bilboes growth spend for 2026 was deferred from $132m to $48m (≈$80m pushed into H1 2027). Bilboes remains on schedule (first contractors expected Oct, first production targeted end‑2028 and first full year 2029) with funding plans advanced: cash ~$168–171m, bullion ~$13.5m, liquidity >$200m, convertible proceeds ~$145m, and an interim $150m facility in late Aug/early Sep expected while project finance discussions continue (total project funding need ~US$600m at $3,500/oz pricing, ~US$300m senior debt or ~US$263m at a $4,000/oz deck); dividend maintained at $0.14/share.Caledonia Mining Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
84
Very Positive
Balance Sheet
88
Very Positive
Cash Flow
79
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Mar 2025 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 280.87M | 254.14M | 183.02M | 146.31M | 142.08M | 121.33M |
| Gross Profit | 147.68M | 137.12M | 76.99M | 41.48M | 61.82M | 54.07M |
| EBITDA | 131.99M | 125.78M | 59.72M | 25.48M | 40.35M | 44.20M |
| Net Income | 65.48M | 55.22M | 17.90M | -7.86M | 11.24M | 17.40M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 562.47M | 411.89M | 348.36M | 328.30M | 235.19M | 210.88M |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 171.78M | 35.74M | 4.26M | 4.25M | 6.74M | 17.15M |
| Total Debt | 116.86M | 32.60M | 25.06M | 25.06M | 12.66M | 1.35M |
| Total Liabilities | 238.87M | 128.35M | 113.90M | 104.10M | 77.50M | 58.41M |
| Stockholders Equity | 293.94M | 259.00M | 213.88M | 205.74M | 140.74M | 137.65M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 52.29M | 43.40M | 14.48M | -15.62M | -1.48M | -6.93M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 82.55M | 76.23M | 41.95M | 14.77M | 42.62M | 30.90M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -42.16M | -24.53M | -32.05M | -31.16M | -44.33M | -35.92M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 118.55M | -19.15M | -7.80M | 3.93M | -12.75M | 2.37M |
Caledonia Mining Technical Analysis
Positive
18.66
Price Trends
19.49
Positive
21.49
Positive
24.55
Negative
Market Momentum
0.87
Negative
70.54
Negative
93.00
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For CMCL, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 18.66 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 19.37, below the 50-day MA of 19.49, and below the 200-day MA of 24.55, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.87 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 70.54 is Negative, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 93.00 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for CMCL.
Caledonia Mining Risk Analysis
Caledonia Mining disclosed 45 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Caledonia Mining reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Caledonia Mining Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
80 Outperform | $441.61M | 7.20 | 24.36% | 3.00% | 35.48% | 72.78% | |
72 Outperform | $6.63B | 24.11 | 7.75% | ― | 48.40% | 42.80% | |
67 Neutral | $2.08B | 2.30 | 32.58% | 2.51% | 32.68% | 91.90% | |
66 Neutral | $6.50B | 20.80 | 88.71% | 4.11% | 89.45% | ― | |
61 Neutral | $10.43B | 7.12 | -0.05% | 2.87% | 2.86% | -36.73% | |
54 Neutral | $2.56B | -22.07 | -46.86% | ― | ― | 46.03% | |
42 Neutral | $338.65M | -35.43 | -25.50% | ― | ― | 6.21% |
* Basic Materials Sector Average
CMCL
Caledonia Mining
22.74
0.52
2.35%
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1.01
81.45%
AUGO
Aura Minerals
74.85
47.73
175.95%
HYMC
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26.57
22.80
604.77%
Caledonia Mining Corporate Events
Caledonia Mining Discloses BlackRock’s Stake Rise to 7.10% Voting Rights
Jul 31, 2026
Caledonia Mining reported on July 31, 2026 that it received notice from BlackRock, Inc. of a relevant change in its shareholding, after the asset manager crossed a disclosure threshold on July 28 under AIM rules. BlackRock’s total position i...
Caledonia Mining Discloses Increase in BlackRock’s Shareholding
Jul 17, 2026
Caledonia Mining reported a past change in a significant shareholding after receiving notification from BlackRock, Inc. on July 15, 2026 that the asset manager had crossed a disclosure threshold on July 14, 2026. BlackRock now holds 6.18% of Caled...
Caledonia Mining Discloses Increase in BlackRock Shareholding
Jul 10, 2026
Caledonia Mining reported on July 10, 2026 that it had received a notification from BlackRock, Inc. regarding a relevant change in BlackRock’s shareholding in the company, as required under AIM rules. BlackRock crossed a disclosure threshold...
Caledonia Mining Discloses BlackRock Crossing Major Shareholding Threshold
Jul 9, 2026
Caledonia Mining reported on July 9, 2026 that BlackRock, Inc. notified the company on July 8 it had crossed a disclosure threshold in Caledonia’s shares on July 7, 2026 under AIM Rules. BlackRock now holds 4.96% of Caledonia’s voting ...
Caledonia Mining Discloses Change in BlackRock Shareholding
Jul 8, 2026
Caledonia Mining reported on July 8, 2026 that it had received a notification from BlackRock, Inc. regarding a relevant change in BlackRock’s shareholding in the company under AIM rules. The notification, triggered on July 6, 2026, detailed ...
Caledonia Mining Reports Increase in BlackRock Shareholding Above 6%
Jul 1, 2026
Caledonia Mining said on July 1, 2026 that it was notified by BlackRock, Inc. of a change in its shareholding position after the asset manager crossed a disclosure threshold on June 26, 2026 under AIM rules. BlackRock’s aggregate interest, i...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.