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Dutch Bros Inc
(NYSE:BROS)
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Rating:65Neutral
Price Target:
$71.00
▲(10.94% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:08/06/26
BROS scores as a solid growth story with improving financial performance and a positive, guidance-raising earnings update as the biggest supports. The overall score is held back primarily by very expensive valuation (P/E ~102.9), plus leverage and only mid-level margin/cash-conversion strength. Technicals are supportive but not strong enough to meaningfully offset valuation risk.
Positive Factors
Sustained revenue growth and restored profitability
Multi-year revenue expansion and a return to consistent net profitability create durable scale advantages. Higher revenues improve unit economics and fund reinvestment, while positive net income and improved ROE support ongoing capital allocation, making growth less reliant on external funding.
Negative Factors
Elevated absolute debt load
A sizable debt burden relative to equity constrains flexibility and raises vulnerability to margin or traffic shocks. Interest and principal obligations can crowd capital for openings or require slower growth if cash flow weakens, limiting ability to absorb prolonged operational headwinds.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Sustained revenue growth and restored profitability
Multi-year revenue expansion and a return to consistent net profitability create durable scale advantages. Higher revenues improve unit economics and fund reinvestment, while positive net income and improved ROE support ongoing capital allocation, making growth less reliant on external funding.
Read all positive factors
Dutch Bros Inc Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Gross Profit by Segment
Breaks down gross profit across business segments (company stores, franchising, retail products), highlighting which parts of the business generate the most margin and where pricing or cost pressure could most impact overall profitability.
Breaks down gross profit across business segments (company stores, franchising, retail products), highlighting which parts of the business generate the most margin and where pricing or cost pressure could most impact overall profitability.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyDutch Bros Inc (BROS) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$9.09B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)2.95M
Price to Earnings (P/E)72.3
Beta (1Y)1.74
Revenue Growth29.65%
EPS Growth50.44%
CountryUS
Employees27,000
SectorConsumer Cyclical
Sector Strength84
IndustryRestaurants
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.72
Shares Outstanding137,940,800
10 Day Avg. Volume2,307,745
30 Day Avg. Volume2,950,114
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.90
Price to Book (P/B)11.27
Price to Sales (P/S)4.68
P/FCF Ratio141.01
Enterprise Value/Market Cap<0.01
Enterprise Value/Revenue<0.01
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit<0.01
Enterprise Value/Ebitda<0.01
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$79.06Price Target Upside23.52% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering19
EPS Forecast (FY)0.96
Revenue Forecast (FY)$2.13B
Dutch Bros Inc Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Dutch Bros Inc., in collaboration with its subsidiaries, operates and licenses drive-thru establishments throughout the United States. The company's business model is divided into two primary divisions: its directly owned and managed shops, and it...
How the Company Makes Money
Dutch Bros makes money primarily by selling beverages (and a smaller amount of food/snack items) directly to customers at its shops, with revenue recognized at the point of sale. The largest revenue stream is retail sales from company-operated loc...
Dutch Bros Inc Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Aug 05, 2026
(Q2-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Nov 11, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call presented a predominately positive operational and financial story: strong top-line growth (+32% revenue), healthy profitability (+28% adjusted EBITDA), accelerating digital adoption, successful menu innovation (Mist permanent), rapid development momentum (48 openings in Q2, strong new-shop productivity, Chicago success), and raised full-year guidance. Offsetting this are manageable but notable headwinds: higher coffee/COGS pressure (~60 bps), increased occupancy from build-to-suit (+50 bps), modest adjusted EBITDA margin pressure (~20 bps), higher preopening expenses, and a temporary comp deceleration driven by transaction comparison step-ups and pricing roll-offs; franchise comps lag company comps in part due to later food rollout. Overall, positives materially outweigh the headwinds, which are being disclosed and managed.Positive Updates
Strong Revenue and Profit Growth
Total revenues of $551M in Q2, up 32% year-over-year; adjusted EBITDA of $114M, up 28% year-over-year; adjusted EPS $0.33 vs $0.26 a year ago.
Negative Updates
Input Cost Pressure (Coffee and COGS)
Beverage, food and packaging costs were 26.1% of company-operated shop revenue, up 80 bps YoY primarily due to higher coffee costs and food rollout; company expects ~60 bps of full-year COGS pressure, with continued coffee cost impact in the back half of the year.
Read all updates
Q2-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Strong Revenue and Profit Growth
Total revenues of $551M in Q2, up 32% year-over-year; adjusted EBITDA of $114M, up 28% year-over-year; adjusted EPS $0.33 vs $0.26 a year ago.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Dutch Bros raised 2026 guidance, now projecting total revenues of $2.10–2.13 billion (up ~28–30% YoY) and system same‑shop sales growth of 5–6% (trending to the midpoint) with Q3 comps ~4–5% as pricing rolls off and the food rollout laps; adjusted EBITDA is guided to $385–390 million (midpoint implies ~20 bps YoY net adjusted EBITDA margin pressure), capital expenditures $350–370 million, and at least 150 new shop openings in 2026. The update reflects the Phoenix franchise acquisition (31 locations; $63.5M purchase) expected to add ~ $25M incremental revenue and ~ $5M incremental adjusted EBITDA for the remainder of 2026, assumes ~60 bps of full‑year COGS pressure (including coffee and food), ~50 bps higher occupancy from increased build‑to‑suit mix, ~90 bps of SG&A leverage for the year, average CapEx per shop ~ $1.4M, ~90% of the pipeline needed for 4,000 shops by 2029, and liquidity of roughly $699M (including ~$269M cash).Dutch Bros Inc Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
74
Positive
Balance Sheet
58
Neutral
Cash Flow
66
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 1.88B | 1.64B | 1.28B | 965.78M | 739.01M | 497.88M |
| Gross Profit | 471.01M | 423.95M | 340.13M | 251.30M | 180.92M | 153.30M |
| EBITDA | 296.62M | 279.06M | 204.91M | 118.38M | 46.09M | -87.25M |
| Net Income | 92.37M | 79.84M | 35.26M | 1.72M | -4.75M | -12.68M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 3.38B | 3.01B | 2.50B | 1.76B | 1.19B | 553.70M |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 268.62M | 269.40M | 293.35M | 133.54M | 20.18M | 18.51M |
| Total Debt | 1.21B | 1.09B | 942.91M | 676.58M | 625.42M | 150.69M |
| Total Liabilities | 2.40B | 2.11B | 1.74B | 1.09B | 934.38M | 339.97M |
| Stockholders Equity | 797.65M | 680.82M | 537.37M | 364.35M | 129.12M | 94.52M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 95.03M | 54.41M | 24.69M | -88.54M | -128.00M | -38.07M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 365.70M | 295.55M | 246.43M | 139.91M | 59.88M | 80.38M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -290.38M | -241.07M | -212.07M | -227.28M | -192.57M | -121.09M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -61.10M | -78.43M | 125.45M | 200.73M | 134.36M | 27.58M |
Dutch Bros Inc Technical Analysis
Negative
64.00
Price Trends
63.66
Negative
58.68
Negative
57.65
Negative
Market Momentum
-3.79
Positive
31.93
Neutral
10.56
Positive
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For BROS, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 64 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 60.38, above the 50-day MA of 63.66, and above the 200-day MA of 57.65, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -3.79 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 31.93 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 10.56 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for BROS.
Dutch Bros Inc Risk Analysis
Dutch Bros Inc disclosed 66 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Dutch Bros Inc reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Dutch Bros Inc Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
73 Outperform | $42.39B | 30.73 | 53.26% | ― | 7.31% | -4.37% | |
71 Outperform | $40.42B | 18.49 | -30.35% | 1.96% | 10.28% | 56.85% | |
68 Neutral | $193.07B | 22.11 | -561.20% | 2.78% | 6.30% | 5.37% | |
65 Neutral | $9.09B | 72.25 | 13.05% | ― | 29.65% | 50.44% | |
62 Neutral | $122.77B | 61.89 | -24.31% | 2.39% | 4.51% | -24.97% | |
61 Neutral | $18.38B | 12.79 | -2.54% | 3.03% | 1.52% | -15.83% | |
46 Neutral | $798.68M | 29.95 | -6.17% | 6.06% | -5.65% | -64.96% |
* Consumer Cyclical Sector Average
BROS
Dutch Bros Inc
52.02
-13.38
-20.46%
CMG
Chipotle
33.50
-9.88
-22.78%
MCD
McDonald's
272.83
-28.56
-9.48%
PZZA
Papa John's International
24.26
-19.90
-45.07%
SBUX
Starbucks
107.69
17.45
19.34%
YUM
Yum! Brands
148.11
1.59
1.08%
Dutch Bros Inc Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Dutch Bros lifts 2026 outlook after strong quarter
Positive
Aug 5, 2026
Dutch Bros Inc. reported strong second-quarter 2026 results, with total revenue rising 32.5% year-on-year to $550.9 million and net income increasing to $51.6 million from $38.4 million. The company opened 48 new shops, mostly company-operated, ac...
Executive/Board ChangesShareholder Meetings
Dutch Bros Shareholders Back Directors and Governance Proposals
Positive
May 15, 2026
On May 13, 2026, Dutch Bros Inc. held its 2026 annual stockholders’ meeting, at which approximately 95.2% of the company’s voting power was represented remotely or by proxy. Stockholders elected nine directors, including Executive Chai...
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Dutch Bros Lifts 2026 Outlook After Strong Q1 Results
Positive
May 6, 2026
Dutch Bros Inc., a fast-growing U.S. drive-thru beverage operator and franchisor, specializes in high-quality, customizable hot and cold drinks served with an emphasis on speed and service. Founded in 1992 in Oregon, the company has expanded to 1,...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.