Box (BOX) AI Stock Analysis

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Box

(NYSE:BOX)

75Outperform

Box exhibits strong financial performance with robust revenue growth, improved profitability, and effective cash management. Technical indicators show short-term bullish momentum but caution against potential overbought conditions. Valuation is reasonable given the company's growth trajectory. The earnings call provides a positive outlook with strategic initiatives aimed at sustaining future growth, although some challenges indicate areas to watch. Overall, Box is well-positioned for growth within the Software - Infrastructure industry, with a balanced risk-reward profile.

Positive Factors

Financial Strategy

Box announced a new $150 million stock repurchase program, which may appeal to value investors.

Market Opportunity

Box is targeting a massive $100+ billion market opportunity by building the leading ICM platform and leveraging Enterprise Advanced to accelerate customer transformation.

Product Offering

BOX's Enterprise Advance Offering, which includes a comprehensive pool of AI offerings, is expected to drive growth and improve net retention rates.

Negative Factors

Competitive Environment

Despite the potential growth, the competition is fierce, the software sector is under pressure, and the macroeconomic environment is fragile.

Financial Performance

Box reported lackluster 4Q:FY25 results and issued a tepid 1Q:FY26 outlook, indicating potential challenges in financial performance.

Investor Sentiment

Investor sentiment seems low, as most investors are focused on topline growth and are not impressed by the free cash flow profile of this mature company.

Box (BOX) vs. S&P 500 (SPY)

Market Cap

$4.67B

Dividend YieldN/A

Average Volume (3M)1.51M

Price to Earnings (P/E)24.0

Beta (1Y)0.57

Revenue Growth5.05%

EPS Growth103.11%

CountryUS

Employees2,810

SectorTechnology

Sector Strength76

IndustrySoftware - Infrastructure

Share Statistics

EPS (TTM)0.42

Shares Outstanding144,811,980

10 Day Avg. Volume1,214,522

30 Day Avg. Volume1,513,285

Financial Highlights & Ratios

PEG Ratio0.26

Price to Book (P/B)22.77

Price to Sales (P/S)0.00

P/FCF Ratio14.49

Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A

Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A

Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A

Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A

Forecast

1Y Price Target

$35.29

Price Target Upside9.32% Upside

Rating ConsensusModerate Buy

Number of Analyst Covering10

Box Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionBox, Inc. is a cloud content management and file sharing service that caters to businesses across various sectors. Founded in 2005 and headquartered in Redwood City, California, Box provides a secure, efficient platform for file storage, collaboration, and workflow management. The company's core products and services include cloud-based solutions for document management, collaboration tools, and data security, enabling organizations to streamline their operations and enhance productivity.

How the Company Makes MoneyBox makes money primarily through a subscription-based revenue model. The company offers a range of service plans (such as Starter, Business, Business Plus, and Enterprise) that businesses can subscribe to based on their storage needs, user requirements, and additional features required. These plans are typically billed on a monthly or annual basis, providing Box with a steady stream of recurring revenue. Additionally, Box generates revenue through professional services, which include consulting, implementation, and training services to help enterprises effectively integrate and use their solutions. Significant partnerships with technology companies like Google, Microsoft, and IBM also contribute to Box’s earnings by enhancing its service offerings and extending its market reach.

Box Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)

Any

Remaining Performance Obligations

Remaining Performance Obligations
Represents future revenue from contracts yet to be fulfilled, providing insight into revenue visibility and the strength of customer commitments.

Chart InsightsBox's Remaining Performance Obligations have shown a consistent upward trajectory, reflecting strong demand and successful customer retention strategies. The recent earnings call highlights strategic investments in AI and partner ecosystems, which are likely to sustain this growth. Despite challenges like foreign exchange impacts and tax headwinds, Box's robust cash flow and expanding customer base suggest resilience and potential for continued revenue growth. The launch of the Enterprise Advanced plan could further enhance obligations, signaling a positive outlook for future quarters.

Data provided by:

Main Street Data

Box Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Box has shown significant improvement in its financial performance across all verticals. Strong revenue growth and profitability are evident in the income statement. The balance sheet reflects a healthier capital structure, with reduced debt reliance but low equity. Cash flow analysis indicates effective cash management, supporting the company's growth. Overall, Box is on a positive financial trajectory, but should monitor its equity position closely.

Income Statement

Very Positive

Box demonstrated a strong revenue growth with a 5.04% increase in TTM compared to the previous year, continuing its positive trajectory from past years. The gross profit margin remains robust at 79.08%, indicating efficient cost management. Box's net profit margin significantly improved to 20.06% in TTM, a notable increase from previous years, showcasing enhanced profitability. The EBIT and EBITDA margins also saw improvements, reflecting better operational efficiency.

Balance Sheet

Positive

Box's balance sheet shows improvement with a declining debt-to-equity ratio, now standing at 1.38, indicating reduced reliance on debt. The equity ratio improved to 11.83%, but remains relatively low, suggesting potential vulnerability. Return on Equity (ROE) surged to 110.85%, driven by increased net income, but is partially influenced by low equity levels, which could pose risks.

Cash Flow

Positive

Box reported strong free cash flow growth of 5.89% in TTM, indicating solid cash generation capabilities. The operating cash flow to net income ratio of 1.52 reflects efficient conversion of net income into cash, while the free cash flow to net income ratio of 1.45 further underscores robust cash flow management. Overall, Box demonstrates healthy cash flow practices.

Mar 2025	Mar 2024	Mar 2023	Mar 2022	Mar 2021
Breakdown
Income Statement		Total Revenue
1.09B	1.04B	990.87M	874.33M	770.77M
	Gross Profit
862.02M	777.13M	738.32M	624.85M	546.03M
	EBIT
79.63M	50.75M	36.84M	-27.63M	-35.22M
	EBITDA
79.63M	101.99M	102.83M	50.61M	37.84M
	Net Income Common Stockholders
244.62M	129.03M	26.78M	-41.46M	-43.43M
Balance Sheet		Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
722.82M	480.69M	461.25M	586.27M	595.08M
	Total Assets
1.67B	1.24B	1.21B	1.39B	1.35B
	Total Debt
721.32M	491.80M	564.42M	642.33M	648.15M
	Net Debt
96.74M	108.06M	135.96M	226.06M	53.07M
	Total Liabilities
1.47B	1.18B	1.24B	1.30B	1.20B
	Stockholders Equity
197.28M	61.03M	-33.86M	92.79M	151.06M
Cash Flow		Free Cash Flow
329.68M	300.32M	281.49M	224.33M	180.34M
	Operating Cash Flow
332.26M	318.73M	297.98M	234.82M	196.83M
	Investing Cash Flow
-23.21M	-82.79M	120.60M	-239.37M	-16.38M
	Financing Cash Flow
-62.36M	-272.90M	-396.50M	-172.86M	218.68M

Box Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment

Positive

Last Price32.28

Price Trends

50DMA

30.83

Positive

100DMA

31.81

Positive

200DMA

31.83

Positive

Market Momentum

MACD

0.36

Negative

RSI

63.93

Neutral

STOCH

86.17

Negative

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For BOX, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 32.28 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 31.12, above the 50-day MA of 30.83, and above the 200-day MA of 31.83, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.36 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 63.93 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 86.17 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for BOX.

Box Risk Analysis

Box disclosed 56 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Box reported the most risks in the “Finance & Corporate” category.

Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy

Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

Box Peers Comparison

Overall Rating

UnderperformOutperform

Sector (60)

Financial Indicators

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
QLYS	78 Outperform	$4.97B	27.97	40.23%	―	9.58%	12.41%
BOX	75 Outperform	$4.67B	24.03	189.40%	―	5.05%	103.11%
VRNS	66 Neutral	$5.18B	―	-22.21%	―	13.34%	13.71%
S	64 Neutral	$6.66B	―	-17.68%	―	32.25%	20.56%
Sector *	60 Neutral	$11.59B	10.39	-7.23%	2.94%	7.46%	-10.76%
TENB	60 Neutral	$4.02B	―	-12.09%	―	11.79%	35.35%

* Technology Sector Average

Performance Comparison

BOX

Box

32.28

5.30

19.64%

QLYS

Qualys

136.88

-9.51

-6.50%

VRNS

Varonis Systems

46.32

2.17

4.92%

TENB

Tenable Holdings

32.90

-11.12

-25.26%

SentinelOne

20.21

-2.46

-10.85%

Box Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Mar 04, 2025

(Q4-2025)

% Change Since: -3.56%|

Next Earnings Date:May 27, 2025

Earnings Call Sentiment Positive

The earnings call presented a mix of strong financial performance and strategic product launches, such as the Enterprise Advanced plan, which shows potential for future growth. However, challenges including foreign exchange impacts, flat operating margin guidance, and tax expense headwinds were also highlighted. Despite these challenges, the company's strong cash flow, growing customer base, and innovative offerings contribute to an overall positive sentiment.

Q4-2025 Updates

Positive Updates

Strong Q4 Operating Results

Q4 revenue was $280 million, up 6% year over year or 8% in constant currency. Operating margins were 27.3%, and EPS was 42 cents, one cent above guidance.

Successful Launch of Enterprise Advanced

The new Enterprise Advanced plan was launched, with several dozen deals closed in Q4. The plan includes AI-powered document processing and no-code app functionalities.

Record Free Cash Flow

Free cash flow for fiscal 2025 was $305 million, up 13% year over year.

Increase in Operating Margin

Year-over-year operating margin increased by 320 basis points to 27.9%.

Expanding Customer Base

Approximately 1,920 total customers are paying at least $100,000 annually, up 8% year over year.

Negative Updates

Impact of Foreign Exchange on Revenue

Q4 revenue had an incremental FX headwind of 70 basis points, and Q1 revenue guidance includes a 120 basis point headwind due to the leap year.

Flat Operating Margin Guidance for FY 2026

Fiscal year 2026 operating margin is expected to be approximately 28%, implying flat year-over-year growth due to planned investments.

Tax Expense Headwinds

Non-GAAP EPS is facing a $0.52 headwind from incremental non-cash deferred tax expenses.

Company Guidance

During the Box, Inc. fourth quarter and fiscal 2025 earnings call, the company provided several key metrics and financial guidance for the upcoming fiscal year 2026. Box reported a Q4 revenue of $280 million, a 6% year-over-year increase, with operating margins of 27.3% and an EPS of $0.42, surpassing their guidance by one cent. For the full fiscal year 2025, Box achieved a revenue growth of 5% year-over-year, reaching $1.09 billion, and expanded operating margins by 320 basis points to 28%. The company also reported a record free cash flow of $305 million, a 13% increase from the previous year. Looking ahead to fiscal 2026, Box anticipates revenue between $1.155 billion and $1.16 billion, representing a 6% increase, and aims for a gross margin of approximately 81%. The company expects billings growth of 7% and a non-GAAP operating margin of about 28%, despite a 60 basis point impact from previous data center equipment sales. Box is also planning strategic investments to enhance its partner ecosystem and AI capabilities, while maintaining cost discipline to drive future growth and profitability.

Box Corporate Events

Executive/Board ChangesPrivate Placements and FinancingBusiness Operations and Strategy

Box Amends Credit Agreement and Grants Stock Units

Neutral

Dec 20, 2024

Box, Inc. has amended its Credit Agreement with Wells Fargo Bank, reducing its revolving commitments from $150 million to $75 million, which may impact its financial flexibility. Additionally, the company has granted performance-based restricted stock units to CEO Aaron Levie as part of its strategy to incentivize leadership in a rapidly evolving AI-driven market, tying his compensation to the company’s stock performance.

Glossary

OutperformA stock rated as "Outperform" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider this stock a good buying opportunity.

NeutralA stock rated as "Neutral" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly attractive nor unattractive for investment. Investors may consider holding onto the stock, as it is not expected to either significantly outperform or underperform the market.

UnderperformA stock rated as "Underperform" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock may deliver lower returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider selling the stock or avoiding it as an investment.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.