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BigBearai Holdings
(NYSE:BBAI)
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Rating:45Neutral
Price Target:
$2.00
▼(-35.28% Downside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:10/15/26
BBAI scores low primarily due to weak financial performance—persistent losses and significant cash burn—reinforced by bearish technical signals (below key moving averages with negative MACD). The score is partially supported by a more positive earnings narrative around revenue growth, margin improvement, backlog momentum, and liquidity, but dilution risk from the ATM program and the lack of profitability keep the overall score constrained.
Positive Factors
Revenue and Backlog Momentum
Revenue growth, expanding backlog, and more than 20 quarterly contract wins indicate continued customer demand for BigBear.ai’s platforms. This combination can support improved revenue visibility over the next several quarters and provides a foundation for scaling the company’s government and commercial presence.
Negative Factors
Persistent Operating Losses
BigBear.ai has not yet established a sustainable cost structure relative to its revenue base. Deep operating losses reduce financial resilience, make future results dependent on successful scaling, and could limit the company’s ability to fund growth internally if improvement remains slow.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Revenue and Backlog Momentum
Revenue growth, expanding backlog, and more than 20 quarterly contract wins indicate continued customer demand for BigBear.ai’s platforms. This combination can support improved revenue visibility over the next several quarters and provides a foundation for scaling the company’s government and commercial presence.
Read all positive factors
BigBearai Holdings Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Backlog
Represents the value of unfulfilled orders, showing future revenue visibility and overall product demand strength.
Represents the value of unfulfilled orders, showing future revenue visibility and overall product demand strength.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyBigBearai Holdings (BBAI) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$1.04B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)16.45M
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)3.32
Revenue Growth-13.72%
EPS Growth87.44%
CountryUS
Employees579
SectorTechnology
Sector Strength88
IndustryInformation Technology Services
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)-0.17
Shares Outstanding479,494,500
10 Day Avg. Volume18,390,720
30 Day Avg. Volume16,449,540
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.19
Price to Book (P/B)3.17
Price to Sales (P/S)15.18
P/FCF Ratio-41.83
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.40
Enterprise Value/Revenue11.09
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit39.73
Enterprise Value/Ebitda-26.85
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$4.00Price Target Upside29.45% Upside
Rating ConsensusHold
Number of Analyst Covering2
EPS Forecast (FY)-0.26
Revenue Forecast (FY)$145.82M
BigBearai Holdings Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
BigBear.ai Holdings, Inc. harnesses artificial intelligence (AI) and machine learning (ML) capabilities to provide robust decision support. The company organizes its operations into two core segments: Cyber & Engineering and Analytics. The Cyber &...
BigBearai Holdings Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Jul 30, 2026
(Q2-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Oct 27, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call emphasized clear commercial momentum—13% revenue growth, a 781-basis-point gross margin expansion, $410M in cash, a growing $270M backlog, multiple product deployment wins (CargoSeer, Ask Sage, ConductorOS), and a CMMC Level 2 certification—while acknowledging continued operating losses and a worsening adjusted EBITDA driven by deliberate investments in sales and R&D. Management remains focused on hitting full-year revenue guidance ($135M–$165M) and pursuing accretive M&A. Overall the positives around revenue, margin expansion, cash runway, product traction, and contract wins materially outweigh the near-term profitability pressures driven by strategic investments.Positive Updates
Revenue Growth
Second quarter 2026 revenue of $36.7 million, up 13% year-over-year, driven by performance from Gen AI platforms and products.
Negative Updates
Adjusted EBITDA Deterioration
Adjusted EBITDA was negative $11.6 million in Q2 2026 versus negative $8.5 million in Q2 2025, a deterioration of $3.1 million (about 36%), driven by increased investment in sales/go-to-market and research and development despite margin expansion.
Read all updates
Q2-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Revenue Growth
Second quarter 2026 revenue of $36.7 million, up 13% year-over-year, driven by performance from Gen AI platforms and products.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
BigBear.ai said it is on track to meet fiscal 2026 top‑line guidance of $135 million to $165 million; supporting metrics cited on the call include Q2 revenue of $36.7 million (up 13% year‑over‑year), gross margin of 32.8% (improved 781 basis points), a Q2 net loss of $25.7 million versus $228.6 million a year ago, adjusted EBITDA of negative $11.6 million (vs negative $8.5 million), backlog of $270 million (up about $22 million year‑to‑date and +9% since year‑end), total cash and investments of $410 million to fund growth and M&A, more than 20 Q2 contract wins (values up to $5 million each) plus a prior Q1 contract with $53 million total contract value, achievement of CMMC Level 2, and the recent integration of Ask Sage and CargoSeer as drivers of confidence in hitting the guidance.BigBearai Holdings Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
22
Negative
Balance Sheet
55
Neutral
Cash Flow
18
Very Negative
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 131.63M | 127.67M | 158.24M | 155.16M | 155.01M | 145.58M |
| Gross Profit | 36.75M | 28.48M | 45.22M | 40.60M | 42.99M | 34.07M |
| EBITDA | -54.39M | -260.52M | -258.28M | -22.32M | -48.17M | -107.44M |
| Net Income | -85.82M | -293.91M | -295.55M | -70.66M | -111.37M | -123.55M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 841.31M | 894.55M | 343.78M | 199.91M | 195.31M | 383.32M |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 36.28M | 87.13M | 50.14M | 32.56M | 12.63M | 68.90M |
| Total Debt | 22.75M | 24.33M | 146.41M | 200.59M | 200.28M | 194.60M |
| Total Liabilities | 70.99M | 282.68M | 347.49M | 267.25M | 233.18M | 260.95M |
| Stockholders Equity | 770.32M | 611.87M | -3.71M | -67.33M | -37.87M | 122.37M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | -73.84M | -46.32M | -49.23M | -22.14M | -49.69M | -20.43M |
| Operating Cash Flow | -71.63M | -41.95M | -38.12M | -18.31M | -48.92M | -19.78M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -614.22M | -606.68M | 2.82M | -3.83M | -5.23M | -863.00K |
| Financing Cash Flow | 332.35M | 691.31M | 52.46M | 42.06M | -103.14M | 180.86M |
BigBearai Holdings Technical Analysis
Negative
3.09
Price Trends
2.77
Negative
3.11
Negative
3.72
Negative
Market Momentum
-0.19
Positive
32.11
Neutral
18.67
Positive
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For BBAI, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 3.09 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 2.43, above the 50-day MA of 2.77, and below the 200-day MA of 3.72, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.19 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 32.11 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 18.67 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for BBAI.
BigBearai Holdings Risk Analysis
BigBearai Holdings disclosed 116 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. BigBearai Holdings reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
BigBearai Holdings Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
75 Outperform | $16.02B | 11.95 | 27.55% | 1.33% | 3.41% | 1.68% | |
73 Outperform | $13.43B | 25.37 | 12.37% | ― | 10.89% | 7.95% | |
71 Outperform | $5.73B | 15.84 | 25.89% | 1.08% | -0.78% | 3.90% | |
61 Neutral | $37.18B | 12.37 | -10.20% | 1.83% | 8.50% | -7.62% | |
60 Neutral | $344.54M | -21.95 | -15.53% | ― | 65.93% | 71.75% | |
57 Neutral | $4.77B | 30.88 | 6.01% | ― | -5.84% | -60.23% | |
45 Neutral | $1.04B | -12.88 | -12.34% | ― | -13.72% | 87.44% |
* Technology Sector Average
BBAI
BigBearai Holdings
2.13
-4.65
-68.58%
CACI
Caci International
619.22
34.65
5.93%
SAIC
Science Applications
143.54
44.22
44.53%
LDOS
Leidos Holdings
134.73
-54.47
-28.79%
PSN
Parsons
47.80
-36.52
-43.31%
TLS
Telos
4.57
-2.88
-38.66%
BigBearai Holdings Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board Changes
BigBear.ai Announces Board Resignation, Governance Transition
Neutral
Sep 15, 2026
On September 15, 2026, BigBear.ai Holdings, Inc. announced that board member Kirk Konert resigned from the company’s Board of Directors, effective the same day. The company stated that Konert’s departure was not due to any disagreement...
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board ChangesRegulatory Filings and Compliance
BigBear.ai Adds Retired Army General to Board
Positive
Aug 17, 2026
On August 13, 2026, BigBear.ai Holdings, Inc. appointed Retired Lieutenant General Sean Gainey to its Board of Directors and its Nominating and Corporate Governance Committee, strengthening the company’s leadership with deep U.S. Army experi...
Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and FinancingRegulatory Filings and Compliance
BigBear.ai Announces New At-the-Market Equity Program
Positive
Jul 31, 2026
On July 31, 2026, BigBear.ai Holdings, Inc. entered into an Open Market Sale Agreement with Jefferies LLC, appointing the firm as sales agent for an at-the-market offering of up to 100,000,000 shares of its common stock. The shares may be sold fro...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.