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American Express
(NYSE:AXP)
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Rating:68Neutral
Price Target:
$356.00
â–²(9.15% Upside)
Action:Downgraded
Date:07/25/26
The score is driven primarily by solid underlying financial quality (strong profitability/cash generation) and a constructive earnings-call outlook with raised revenue guidance and strong credit/spend trends. These positives are tempered by weaker technicals (trading below multiple key moving averages with soft momentum) and a premium valuation (P/E ~27) with a modest dividend yield, plus leverage-related balance-sheet risk highlighted in the financials.
Positive Factors
Durable premium payments franchise
American Express's closed-loop network and premium rewards drive high-margin card fees that have expanded consistently for years. Sustained double-digit card-fee growth reflects durable pricing power, strong member engagement and recurring revenue that support margin resilience over multi-quarter horizons.
Negative Factors
Elevated balance-sheet leverage
High structural leverage amplifies returns but increases sensitivity to credit cycles and funding cost spikes. Reliance on debt-funded lending and note issuances raises refinancing and liquidity risk in tighter markets, making capital deployment and dividend/share buyback optionality more contingent on funding conditions.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Durable premium payments franchise
American Express's closed-loop network and premium rewards drive high-margin card fees that have expanded consistently for years. Sustained double-digit card-fee growth reflects durable pricing power, strong member engagement and recurring revenue that support margin resilience over multi-quarter horizons.
Read all positive factors
American Express Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Revenue by Segment
Breaks down revenue by business segments, highlighting which areas are driving growth and profitability for American Express.
Breaks down revenue by business segments, highlighting which areas are driving growth and profitability for American Express.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyAmerican Express (AXP) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$227.07B
Dividend Yield1.05%
Average Volume (3M)3.11M
Price to Earnings (P/E)20.4
Beta (1Y)1.29
Revenue Growth9.41%
EPS Growth15.72%
CountryUS
Employees76,800
SectorFinancial
Sector Strength70
IndustryFinancial - Credit Services
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)16.49
Shares Outstanding675,309,800
10 Day Avg. Volume3,148,990
30 Day Avg. Volume3,111,773
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio2.46
Price to Book (P/B)7.68
Price to Sales (P/S)3.20
P/FCF Ratio16.07
Enterprise Value/Market Cap<0.01
Enterprise Value/Revenue<0.01
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit<0.01
Enterprise Value/Ebitda<0.01
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$380.85Price Target Upside16.76% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering22
EPS Forecast (FY)17.65
Revenue Forecast (FY)$79.50B
American Express Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Operating globally, American Express Company and its affiliated entities deliver a comprehensive suite of charge and credit payment card solutions, alongside a variety of travel-related offerings. Its business structure is organized into three pri...
How the Company Makes Money
American Express primarily makes money through a combination of payments-network economics and lending-related income tied to its cardmember relationships. A major revenue stream is merchant-related revenue: when a cardmember uses an American Expr...
American Express Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Jul 24, 2026
(Q2-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Oct 23, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call conveyed strong operating momentum: double-digit revenue growth, robust spend and card fee expansion, excellent credit metrics, international strength, healthy deposit growth, and high ROE. Management raised revenue guidance and emphasized reinvesting incremental performance into customer acquisition, technology and strategic partnerships (e.g., TheFork). Near-term headwinds include a higher VCE ratio, the staggered sale of small business co-brand portfolios that will depress spend and NII growth until lapped, and elevated marketing/integration spending that keeps EPS guidance unchanged. Overall, positives around growth, credit quality and capital returns materially outweigh the manageable, largely-transitory challenges.Positive Updates
Strong Quarterly Revenue and EPS
Revenue grew 10% year-over-year in Q2 2026 and the company raised full-year revenue guidance to 10%. Reported EPS for the quarter was $4.53 and Christophe noted EPS was up ~11% year-over-year for the quarter; year-to-date the company delivered ~11% revenue growth and ~14% EPS growth.
Negative Updates
Higher Variable Costs to Cardholder Engagement (VCE)
VCE to revenue ratio stepped up to 44.6% in Q2 (above prior expectations) due to stronger-than-expected cardholder spending and the Platinum refresh; management now expects full-year VCE between 44% and 45%.
Read all updates
Q2-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Strong Quarterly Revenue and EPS
Revenue grew 10% year-over-year in Q2 2026 and the company raised full-year revenue guidance to 10%. Reported EPS for the quarter was $4.53 and Christophe noted EPS was up ~11% year-over-year for the quarter; year-to-date the company delivered ~11% revenue growth and ~14% EPS growth.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
American Express raised its 2026 revenue-growth guidance to 10% while maintaining full‑year EPS guidance of $17.30–$17.90; management expects card‑fee growth to accelerate in Q3 and to exit the year in the high‑teens, marketing to be up ~10% year‑over‑year in H2, operating expenses to grow in the mid‑single digits for the full year, and the variable card‑member expense (VCE) ratio to finish the year between 44%–45%. They flagged headwinds from the staggered sale/transfers of two small‑business co‑brand portfolios (a ~1 percentage‑point quarterly hit to spend growth starting in Q4, roughly a 2.5‑pp drag to NII until lapped, and about a 1‑pp hit to total revenue), expect credit metrics to remain generally stable, and noted the guidance excludes the potential H2 proceeds/impact from the planned sale of their Global Business Travel equity stake.American Express Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
74
Positive
Balance Sheet
66
Positive
Cash Flow
70
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 84.07B | 80.46B | 74.20B | 67.36B | 55.63B | 44.43B |
| Gross Profit | 70.92B | 66.97B | 60.76B | 55.59B | 50.68B | 44.57B |
| EBITDA | 24.72B | 15.57B | 14.57B | 12.16B | 11.21B | 12.38B |
| Net Income | 11.45B | 10.83B | 10.13B | 8.37B | 7.51B | 8.06B |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 308.20B | 300.05B | 271.46B | 261.11B | 228.35B | 188.55B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 45.56B | 48.53B | 41.74B | 48.65B | 38.39B | 24.50B |
| Total Debt | 59.05B | 57.76B | 51.09B | 49.16B | 43.92B | 40.92B |
| Total Liabilities | 273.92B | 266.58B | 241.20B | 233.05B | 203.64B | 166.37B |
| Stockholders Equity | 34.28B | 33.47B | 30.26B | 28.06B | 24.71B | 22.18B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 15.05B | 16.00B | 12.14B | 17.00B | 19.22B | 13.10B |
| Operating Cash Flow | 18.48B | 18.43B | 14.05B | 18.56B | 21.08B | 14.64B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -28.39B | -22.89B | -24.40B | -24.43B | -33.69B | -10.53B |
| Financing Cash Flow | -3.04B | 11.21B | 4.44B | 18.38B | 24.51B | -14.93B |
American Express Risk Analysis
American Express disclosed 34 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. American Express reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
American Express Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (68)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
82 Outperform | $651.42B | 31.11 | 61.26% | 0.73% | 14.39% | 14.71% | |
78 Outperform | $506.64B | 31.47 | 206.12% | 0.62% | 16.15% | 22.59% | |
74 Outperform | $48.94B | 10.73 | 24.42% | 0.75% | 6.32% | 12.89% | |
73 Outperform | $24.66B | 7.69 | 20.94% | 1.65% | -2.40% | 18.50% | |
70 Outperform | $128.22B | 12.93 | 9.28% | 1.48% | 39.21% | -76.14% | |
68 Neutral | $227.07B | 20.39 | 34.12% | 1.09% | 9.41% | 15.72% | |
68 Neutral | $18.00B | 11.42 | 9.92% | 3.81% | 9.73% | 1.22% |
* Financial Sector Average
AXP
American Express
336.25
40.82
13.82%
COF
Capital One Financial
209.01
-1.21
-0.57%
MA
Mastercard
573.10
6.82
1.20%
V
Visa
366.13
26.66
7.85%
SYF
Synchrony Financial
75.79
7.68
11.27%
PYPL
PayPal Holdings
57.21
-10.22
-15.15%
American Express Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial DisclosuresM&A Transactions
American Express Raises 2026 Outlook on Strong Q2
Positive
Jul 24, 2026
American Express reported on July 24, 2026, that second-quarter 2026 revenue rose 10% year over year to $19.6 billion, driven by higher card member spending, growth in card balances and strong fee income, while net income increased to $3.1 billion...
Executive/Board ChangesShareholder Meetings
American Express Shareholders Reaffirm Board, Pay and Auditor
Positive
May 7, 2026
At its Annual Meeting of Shareholders held on May 5, 2026, American Express reported that all 13 director nominees were elected with majority support, including Chairman and CEO Stephen J. Squeri, underscoring broad investor backing for the curren...
Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and Financing
American Express Issues New Fixed-to-Floating Rate Notes
Positive
May 4, 2026
American Express Company, a major player in global payments and financial services, continues to rely on capital markets funding through senior unsecured debt to support its lending and card operations. Its strategy includes issuing fixed and floa...
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial DisclosuresM&A Transactions
American Express to Divest Stake in Global Business Travel
Positive
May 4, 2026
On May 4, 2026, American Express said it will divest its roughly 30% stake in Global Business Travel Group, Inc. as part of Long Lake and General Catalyst’s agreement to acquire GBTG, a move that underscores its focus on capital efficiency w...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.