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Alliance Resource (ARLP) AI Stock Analysis
Alliance Resource
(NASDAQ:ARLP)
ARLP scores well on strong cash generation and healthy profitability, supported by a positive earnings update with tightened guidance and improved cost performance and distribution coverage. Valuation is attractive (P/E ~11) with a high yield (~9.09%). The main constraints are commodity-cycle normalization versus 2022–2023 highs, rising debt, and some near-term headwinds (softer coal pricing and export logistics).
Alliance Resource Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Adjusted EBITDA by SegmentIsolates operating profitability for each segment after common adjustments, showing which parts of the business generate cash and which drag on margins. Useful for spotting exposure to coal price swings, cost inflation, or operational inefficiencies that could affect distributable cash and valuation.
Illinois Basin is the steady cash engine underpinning company EBITDA despite softer coal realizations, while Appalachia’s volatile trough-to-recovery pattern reflects operational cycles that are improving thanks to productivity gains and lower per‑ton costs. Oil & Gas Royalties are the fastest-growing, record-performing segment and the AllDale acquisition materially scales and should be accretive, but that deal (and related borrowings/MTM items) has amplified volatility in Corporate & Other. Strong forward bookings and 2027 commitments boost visibility and mitigate near-term demand risk.
The FlyAlliance Resource (ARLP) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
- Market Cap
- $3.36B
- Dividend Yield
- 9.18%
- Average Volume (3M)
- 300.51K
- Price to Earnings (P/E)
- 10.9
- Beta (1Y)
- 0.03
- Revenue Growth
- -1.92%
- EPS Growth
- 26.98%
- Country
- US
- Employees
- 3,575
- Sector
- Energy
- Sector Strength
- 65
- Industry
- Coal
Alliance Resource Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Alliance Resource Partners, L.P. (ARLP) operates as a diversified natural resource enterprise, with a primary focus on extracting and supplying coal to utility companies and industrial customers across the United States. The company's business activi...
How the Company Makes Money
ARLP primarily makes money by selling coal under supply contracts to power generation and industrial customers. Revenue is generated when ARLP mines coal from its operated mines and delivers (or arranges delivery of) contracted tons at agreed pricing...
Alliance Resource Earnings Call Summary
The call was strongly positive, supported by higher revenue, net income, adjusted EBITDA, coal volumes, royalty results, cash flow, distribution coverage, and improved operating costs. Management also highlighted the Metiki reopening, expanded contracted volumes, export opportunities, and favorable long-term electricity demand trends. These positives outweighed lower coal and sequential oil and gas pricing, export logistics constraints, measured near-term solicitation activity, higher net debt, and acquisition-related offsets.
Q3-2026 Updates
Positive Updates
Negative Updates
Company Guidance
For 2026, Alliance expects total coal sales volumes of 34.5 million to 35.5 million tons, coal sales price per ton of $54.25 to $54.75, and segment adjusted EBITDA expense per ton of $37.50 to $38.50; its tightened oil and gas royalty volume ranges reflect a slightly higher natural gas weighting, while consolidated guidance includes ranges for net income and adjusted EBITDA attributable to noncontrolling interests detailed in the press release. The company added 4.2 million committed and priced tons through 2028, has 31.7 million tons committed and priced for 2027, including 700 thousand tons for Metiki, expects 2027 Metiki production to be approximately 550 thousand tons higher than 2026 with EBITDA expense per ton lower than 2026, and has 3.7 million tons committed and priced for 2026 and 3 million tons for 2027 in export markets; it could exceed this year’s volume by half million or a million tons, while Metiki could supply 150 to 200 tons in the met market, and 2027 consolidated coal-segment revenues are expected to be equal to if not slightly higher than current levels.
Alliance Resource Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Overall fundamentals are solid, led by strong and steady operating cash flow (TTM ~$655M) and meaningfully positive free cash flow (TTM ~$400M). Profitability remains healthy (TTM net margin ~14%), and leverage is still manageable, but earnings have normalized from 2022–2023 peak levels and total debt has risen to ~$680M in TTM, increasing cyclical risk.
Income Statement
68PositiveBalance Sheet
74PositiveCash Flow
78Positive| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 2.21B | 2.19B | 2.45B | 2.57B | 2.42B | 1.57B |
| Gross Profit | 661.38M | 468.42M | 507.48M | 751.49M | 741.20M | 289.36M |
| EBITDA | 717.35M | 675.19M | 702.17M | 948.52M | 956.14M | 483.47M |
| Net Income | 310.92M | 311.16M | 360.86M | 630.12M | 586.20M | 182.77M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 3.31B | 2.85B | 2.92B | 2.79B | 2.73B | 2.16B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 84.81M | 71.21M | 136.96M | 59.81M | 296.02M | 122.40M |
| Total Debt | 679.60M | 479.96M | 486.80M | 350.82M | 434.31M | 450.66M |
| Total Liabilities | 1.28B | 993.57M | 1.06B | 929.83M | 1.02B | 933.34M |
| Stockholders Equity | 1.85B | 1.84B | 1.83B | 1.83B | 1.61B | 1.21B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 399.85M | 380.02M | 374.39M | 362.08M | 515.96M | 272.20M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 655.38M | 651.14M | 803.13M | 830.64M | 802.35M | 426.14M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -542.82M | -331.25M | -440.66M | -559.73M | -403.34M | -143.63M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -122.37M | -385.73M | -285.32M | -507.12M | -225.39M | -215.69M |
Alliance Resource Technical Analysis
Price Trends
Market Momentum
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For ARLP, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 26.13 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 25.73, above the 50-day MA of 25.77, and above the 200-day MA of 24.97, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.32 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 54.90 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 54.47 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for ARLP.
Alliance Resource Risk Analysis
Alliance Resource disclosed 78 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Alliance Resource reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
- Finance & Corporate29
- Tech & Innovation2
- Legal & Regulatory18
- Production18
- Ability to Sell5
- Macro & Political6
Latest Risks Added
0 New RisksAlliance Resource Peers Comparison
Overall Rating
- ARLP78Outperform
HCC61Neutral
CNR56Neutral
AMR53Neutral
BTU52Neutral
METC41Neutral
Financial Indicators
| Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ARLP | 78Outperform | $3.38B | 10.89 | 17.21% | 9.18% | -1.92% | 26.98% |
| Sector * | 65Neutral | $15.17B | 7.61 | 4.09% | 5.20% | 3.87% | -62.32% |
| HCC | 61Neutral | $4.34B | 19.39 | 10.02% | 0.40% | 37.47% | 439.91% |
| CNR | 56Neutral | $4.18B | 41.88 | 2.70% | 0.48% | 30.21% | -10.03% |
| AMR | 53Neutral | $1.95B | -42.52 | -2.99% | ― | -12.92% | -25.84% |
| BTU | 52Neutral | $2.57B | -13.75 | -5.29% | 1.45% | -0.68% | -233.93% |
| METC | 41Neutral | $393.00M | -6.18 | -13.54% | ― | -17.65% | -157.95% |
* Energy Sector Average
Performance Comparison
| Show on chart | Ticker | Company Name | Price | Change | % Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ARLP | Alliance Resource Partners | 26.13 | 3.67 | 16.36% | |
| AMR | Alpha Metallurgical Resources, Inc. | 152.63 | -21.36 | -12.28% | |
| METC | Ramaco Resources | 6.74 | -17.59 | -72.30% | |
| HCC | Warrior Met Coal | 80.66 | 14.84 | 22.55% | |
| BTU | Peabody Energy (BTU) | 20.66 | -8.08 | -28.12% | |
| CNR | Core Natural Resources, Inc. | 83.34 | 6.06 | 7.85% |
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.
Date of analysis: Oct 27, 2026