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Antero Resources
(NYSE:AR)
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Rating:73Outperform
Price Target:
$47.00
▲(23.85% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:07/30/26
The score is driven primarily by strong financial performance (notably free cash flow) and a positive earnings call outlining measurable cost and margin improvement levers. Valuation appears reasonable on earnings, while technicals are mixed with the stock still below longer-term moving averages and key momentum indicators unavailable; corporate events are modestly supportive via added liquidity and stable governance.
Positive Factors
Production Growth
Rapid production growth expands the company’s revenue base and improves operating leverage across its Appalachian asset portfolio. The increase is supported by owned drilling locations and recent bolt-on acquisitions, giving Antero a durable platform for additional volume and cash-flow growth.
Negative Factors
Commodity Cyclicality
Antero’s upstream model remains directly exposed to natural gas and NGL pricing, so weaker benchmarks can reduce revenue, margins, and cash generation even when operations improve. This cyclicality makes sustainable earnings power less predictable and can constrain investment during downcycles.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Production Growth
Rapid production growth expands the company’s revenue base and improves operating leverage across its Appalachian asset portfolio. The increase is supported by owned drilling locations and recent bolt-on acquisitions, giving Antero a durable platform for additional volume and cash-flow growth.
Read all positive factors
Antero Resources Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Revenue By Type
Shows how different types of products or services contribute to overall revenue, providing insight into diversification and dependency on specific offerings.
Shows how different types of products or services contribute to overall revenue, providing insight into diversification and dependency on specific offerings.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyAntero Resources (AR) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$12.95B
Dividend Yield1.4%
Average Volume (3M)4.39M
Price to Earnings (P/E)9.5
Beta (1Y)0.06
Revenue Growth20.84%
EPS Growth141.73%
CountryUS
Employees632
SectorEnergy
Sector Strength52
IndustryOil & Gas Exploration & Production
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)3.51
Shares Outstanding307,439,000
10 Day Avg. Volume4,396,812
30 Day Avg. Volume4,391,354
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.02
Price to Book (P/B)1.41
Price to Sales (P/S)2.13
P/FCF Ratio8.59
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.20
Enterprise Value/Revenue2.77
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit10.63
Enterprise Value/Ebitda6.50
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$48.88Price Target Upside28.81% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering17
EPS Forecast (FY)4.44
Revenue Forecast (FY)$6.71B
Antero Resources Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Antero Resources Corporation functions as an independent energy enterprise, primarily engaged in identifying, acquiring, developing, and extracting natural gas, natural gas liquids (NGLs), and crude oil deposits throughout the United States. As of...
How the Company Makes Money
Antero Resources makes money primarily by producing and selling natural gas, natural gas liquids (NGLs), and crude oil/condensate from its operated wells in the Appalachian Basin. Revenue is recognized when these commodities are delivered to custo...
Antero Resources Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Jul 29, 2026
(Q2-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Feb 17, 2027
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call emphasized multiple operational and financial improvements — record production, a 57% adjusted EBITDA increase, $220M free cash flow, strong NGL pricing, accretive bolt-ons and demonstrable dry‑gas well outperformance — alongside a formal plan to reduce cash costs >25% to $2/Mcfe and $300M of margin enhancements. Offsetting items include weaker Henry Hub pricing (down ~16% YoY), expected lower in‑basin price realizations (~$0.35/Mcfe), shipping cost headwinds, and execution/timing risk around in‑basin demand projects and the phased nature of contractual optimizations. Overall, the company presented substantial progress and optionality with identifiable near‑ and multi‑year levers to improve margins and cash flow, while acknowledging timing and price dependencies that could moderate near‑term upside.Positive Updates
Record Production and Strong Volume Growth
Company record quarterly production averaged >4.1 Bcfe/d, up 21% year-over-year; net production increased from 3.3 Bcfe/d at the start of 2025 to an expected 4.5 Bcfe/d exit in 2026 (≈36% growth).
Negative Updates
Weaker Henry Hub Pricing
Henry Hub natural gas prices were down ~16% year-over-year; management noted commodity price weakness as a driver for cautious completion timing and potential pacing of growth capital.
Read all updates
Q2-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Record Production and Strong Volume Growth
Company record quarterly production averaged >4.1 Bcfe/d, up 21% year-over-year; net production increased from 3.3 Bcfe/d at the start of 2025 to an expected 4.5 Bcfe/d exit in 2026 (≈36% growth).
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Antero's guidance centers on a structural cost roadmap to cut cash costs by over 25% to $2.00/Mcfe by year‑end 2028 (a $0.70/Mcfe cash‑cost improvement partly offset by ~$0.35/Mcfe lower in‑basin realizations), targeting roughly $300M of annual margin improvement (including $60M uplift starting Q3‑26 from the dissolved ORI/Martica, $30M when the VPP expires July‑2027, $105M from liquids transport optimization by end‑2028 and $105M from gas FT optimization/dry‑gas development); near‑term metrics include record Q2 production >4.1 Bcfe/d (+21% YoY) and a planned 2026 exit rate of ~4.5 Bcfe/d (+36% since early‑2025), adjusted EBITDA +57% YoY with $220M free cash flow (used to repurchase 1.1M shares for $38M), cash operating costs down $0.29/Mcfe (‑11% YoY), $315M of July acquisitions adding ~125 MMcfe/d and 15 net locations, 2026 maintenance CapEx ~$1B (growth plan $1.2B, currently modestly north of $1B with completion spend back‑loaded to Q4 and discretionary unless gas >$3), and hedging around ~60% for 2026 and ~34% for 2027 (swaps near $3.84 and collars ~ $3.50–$4.50).Antero Resources Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
78
Positive
Balance Sheet
70
Positive
Cash Flow
83
Very Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 5.62B | 5.01B | 4.12B | 4.28B | 8.30B | 5.79B |
| Gross Profit | 1.46B | 1.11B | 327.33M | 612.47M | 4.59B | 2.26B |
| EBITDA | 2.39B | 1.73B | 859.55M | 1.23B | 3.29B | 699.51M |
| Net Income | 1.08B | 634.42M | 57.23M | 198.40M | 1.87B | -186.90M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 15.23B | 14.29B | 13.01B | 13.52B | 14.12B | 13.90B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 0.00 | 210.00M | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Total Debt | 4.62B | 5.14B | 4.03B | 4.51B | 4.63B | 5.55B |
| Total Liabilities | 6.92B | 6.57B | 5.79B | 6.38B | 7.10B | 7.83B |
| Stockholders Equity | 8.32B | 7.55B | 7.02B | 6.90B | 6.75B | 5.76B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 1.41B | 1.24B | 747.36M | 827.20M | 2.89B | 1.55B |
| Operating Cash Flow | 1.98B | 1.63B | 849.29M | 994.72M | 3.05B | 1.66B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -3.30B | -1.08B | -714.15M | -1.14B | -943.61M | -710.78M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 1.32B | -343.12M | -135.13M | 146.05M | -2.11B | -949.33M |
Antero Resources Technical Analysis
Positive
37.95
Price Trends
37.28
Positive
36.10
Positive
36.67
Positive
Market Momentum
1.26
Negative
74.70
Negative
94.58
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AR, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 37.95 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 37.21, above the 50-day MA of 37.28, and above the 200-day MA of 36.67, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 1.26 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 74.70 is Negative, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 94.58 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for AR.
Antero Resources Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (65)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
78 Outperform | $35.17B | 12.61 | 11.48% | 1.17% | 18.24% | 43.85% | |
77 Outperform | $13.06B | 14.78 | 19.27% | 0.70% | 17.76% | 58.05% | |
74 Outperform | $2.93B | 6.58 | 27.20% | ― | 26.65% | ― | |
73 Outperform | $12.95B | 9.47 | 13.86% | 1.40% | 20.84% | 141.73% | |
71 Outperform | $5.63B | 5.56 | 21.19% | 1.19% | 16.21% | 487.92% | |
65 Neutral | $15.17B | 7.61 | 4.09% | 5.20% | 3.87% | -62.32% | |
62 Neutral | $4.37B | 8.45 | 20.61% | 5.07% | 17.31% | ― |
* Energy Sector Average
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Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.