Agco (AGCO) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $8.02B
• Dividend Yield: 1.4%
• Average Volume (3M): 758.78K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 80.7
• Beta (1Y): 1.02
• Revenue Growth: -24.27%
• EPS Growth: -76.31%
• Country: US
• Employees: 24,000
• Sector: Industrials
• Sector Strength: 72
• Industry: Agricultural - Machinery
• EPS (TTM): 1.35
• Shares Outstanding: 74,620,224
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 815,506
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 758,785
• PEG Ratio: N/A
• Price to Book (P/B): N/A
• Price to Sales (P/S): N/A
• P/FCF Ratio: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.29
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 1.01
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 4.17
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 48.58
• 1Y Price Target: $119.80
• Price Target Upside: 10.27% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Hold
• Number of Analyst Covering: 11

• Rating: 65 Neutral
• Price Target: $117.00 ▲(7.70% Upside)

AGCO's overall score reflects a mixed financial performance with strong cash flow but declining sales and profitability. Technical analysis shows neutral to bearish signals, and the high P/E ratio suggests overvaluation. The earnings call provided some positive insights, particularly in cash flow and strategic initiatives, but challenges in key markets and global trade uncertainties weigh on the outlook.

Positive Factors

Strong Cash Flow Generation

Robust cash flow generation indicates efficient capital management and provides a financial cushion, supporting long-term strategic investments and stability.

Precision Agriculture and Innovation

Advancements in precision agriculture enhance AGCO's competitive edge, driving future growth and aligning with industry trends towards smart farming solutions.

Positive Developments in Brazil

Growth in the Brazilian market reflects favorable trade dynamics and strengthens AGCO's position in a key agricultural region, supporting revenue stability.

Negative Factors

Significant Decline in Net Sales

A substantial drop in sales indicates challenges in market demand and could impact AGCO's revenue and profitability in the medium term if not addressed.

Challenges in North American Market

Weak performance in North America, a significant market, suggests structural issues that could hinder AGCO's growth and operational efficiency.

Elevated Dealer Inventory in North America

High inventory levels indicate potential overproduction and misalignment with market demand, necessitating production adjustments and impacting cash flow.

Agco Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

AGCO Corporation is a global leader in the design, manufacture, and distribution of agricultural equipment. Founded in 1990, the company operates in various sectors of the agriculture industry, offering a wide range of products including tractors, combines, hay tools, and planting equipment under well-known brands such as Massey Ferguson, Fendt, and Valtra. AGCO is committed to providing innovative solutions to farmers and agricultural businesses, focusing on sustainable practices and advanced technology to enhance productivity and efficiency in farming operations.

How the Company Makes Money

AGCO generates revenue primarily through the sale of agricultural equipment and machinery. The company's key revenue streams include the sale of new and used equipment, parts, and accessories. Additionally, AGCO offers financing solutions to its customers, which also contributes to its earnings. The company has established significant partnerships with dealers and distributors worldwide, facilitating market access and service delivery. AGCO's commitment to innovation, reflected in its investment in precision agriculture technologies and smart farming solutions, also enhances its competitive edge and revenue potential in the agricultural sector.

Agco Financial Statement Overview

Summary

AGCO's financial performance is mixed. The income statement shows challenges with declining revenue and profitability, but the balance sheet is stable with low leverage. Cash flow generation is strong, providing a buffer against short-term income challenges. Historical performance suggests potential for recovery.

Income Statement

The income statement reveals a mixed performance. The TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) shows a significant decline in revenue and profitability compared to the previous year, with a slight gross profit margin of 24.29% and a net profit margin of 0.98%. The EBIT margin is low at 0.58%, indicating struggles in operational efficiency. However, historical data demonstrates strong performance in 2023 with a gross profit margin of 26.21% and a net profit margin of 8.13%, suggesting potential for recovery.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet is relatively stable with a strong equity base. The debt-to-equity ratio is 0.32 in the TTM, reflecting low leverage, which is a positive sign of financial health. Return on equity (ROE) is low at 2.39% in the TTM due to declining net income, but the equity ratio is solid at 33.87%, indicating a strong capital structure. The company's past performance shows better profitability and efficiency, suggesting potential for improvement.

Cash Flow

The cash flow statement shows robust operating cash flows with a ratio of operating cash flow to net income at 9.82 in the TTM, indicating strong cash generation relative to profit. The free cash flow has grown significantly, with a free cash flow to net income ratio of 6.90, highlighting efficient cash management. Historical data supports this trend, demonstrating consistent free cash flow generation and prudent capital expenditure management.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	10.17B	11.66B	14.41B	12.65B	11.14B	9.15B
Gross Profit	2.47B	2.90B	3.78B	3.00B	2.57B	2.06B
EBITDA	212.30M	58.60M	1.69B	1.57B	1.30B	904.10M
Net Income	99.60M	-424.80M	1.17B	889.60M	897.00M	427.10M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	12.31B	11.19B	11.42B	10.10B	9.18B	8.50B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	783.90M	612.00M	595.00M	787.50M	882.20M	1.11B
Total Debt	3.10B	2.78B	1.53B	1.59B	1.62B	1.74B
Total Liabilities	7.84B	7.15B	6.76B	6.22B	5.74B	5.49B
Stockholders Equity	4.17B	3.74B	4.66B	3.88B	3.42B	2.98B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	687.20M	296.60M	585.00M	449.90M	413.10M	626.60M
Operating Cash Flow	977.90M	689.90M	1.10B	838.20M	682.90M	896.50M
Investing Cash Flow	335.70M	-1.65B	-545.70M	-496.80M	-311.10M	-241.70M
Financing Cash Flow	-1.19B	1.05B	-671.70M	-407.00M	-539.50M	22.70M

Agco Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 108.64
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AGCO, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 108.64 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 108.68, below the 50-day MA of 110.54, and above the 200-day MA of 100.55, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.81 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 49.16 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 37.17 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for AGCO.

Agco Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
TEX	77 Outperform	$3.43B	19.50	9.11%	1.29%	-0.35%	-63.44%
OSK	72 Outperform	$8.29B	13.01	14.60%	1.51%	0.41%	-3.90%
CAT	66 Neutral	$229.82B	24.95	50.57%	1.15%	-4.87%	-10.47%
AGCO	65 Neutral	$8.02B	80.75	2.42%	1.40%	-24.27%	-76.31%
DE	63 Neutral	$124.84B	24.14	20.68%	1.40%	-20.63%	-34.82%
CNH	56 Neutral	$13.56B	16.49	10.67%	2.29%	-21.70%	-57.68%
Sector *	63 Neutral	$10.79B	15.43	7.44%	2.01%	2.89%	-14.66%

Agco Corporate Events

AGCO Announces $1 Billion Share Repurchase Program

On July 9, 2025, AGCO Corporation announced a new share repurchase program authorized by its Board of Directors, allowing the company to buy back up to $1 billion of its common stock. This initiative is part of AGCO’s capital allocation strategy aimed at maximizing shareholder value while maintaining financial flexibility for business investments and preserving its investment-grade credit ratings. The program’s execution will depend on various factors, including market conditions and stock trading prices, and may be modified or discontinued at any time.

AGCO Extends Agreement with TAFE Until November 2025

On July 7, 2025, AGCO Corporation and Tractors and Farm Equipment Limited (TAFE) agreed to a fourth amendment to their existing Letter Agreement, extending its expiration date from July 15, 2025, to November 28, 2025. This extension aims to facilitate the completion of settlement agreements and the closing of the Buyback Agreement, resolving outstanding issues between the parties.

AGCO and TAFE Resolve Disputes with New Agreements

On June 30, 2025, AGCO Corporation and TAFE entered into multiple agreements to resolve ongoing disputes and redefine their partnership. These agreements include a settlement of legal claims, a transfer of the Massey Ferguson brand rights in India, Nepal, and Bhutan to TAFE, a buyback of AGCO’s shares in TAFE for $260 million, and a cooperation agreement that sets limitations on TAFE’s future actions regarding AGCO’s shares. These strategic moves are expected to streamline AGCO’s operations and potentially impact its market positioning in the agricultural machinery sector.