Charged: Tesla upgraded on physical artificial intelligence

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From the hotly-debated high-flier Tesla (TSLA), Wall Street’s newest darling Rivian (RIVN), traditional-stalwarts turned EV-upstarts GM (GM) and Ford (F) to the numerous SPAC-deal makers that have come public in this red-hot space, The Fly has you covered with “Charged,” a weekly recap of the top stories and expert calls in the sector.

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BUY TESLA: Baird upgraded Tesla to Outperform from Neutral with a price target of $548, up from $320. While the company’s car volumes will likely decline again in 2025 and near-term fundamentals “will be choppy,” the shares will outperform as Tesla is increasingly viewed as the leader in physical artificial intelligence, the firm tells investors in a research note. Baird points out that Elon Musk’s new pay package is intended to incentivize him for the coming decade. The firm’s minimum- and bull-scenario analysis translate to a 2035 share price of $1,400 and $3,000, respectively, after accounting for dilution from Musk’s additional shares. Baird sees several potential share catalysts ahead, including the next generation of Optimus reveal, additional bots, entering new markets for robotaxi service, and shareholder approval of Musk’s pay package.

LAWSUIT: Tesla has settled two lawsuits over deaths in two separate California crashes in 2019 involving Autopilot, Reuters’ Abhirup Roy and Mike Scarcella report. The terms of the settlements have not been disclosed. The settlements follow a separate $243M verdict against Tesla in August, Reuters notes.

AUTONOMOUS VEHICLES: Tesla has received approval to begin testing autonomous vehicles with a safety monitor in Arizona, AZ, Kara Carlson of Bloomberg reports. The company applied for permits from the Arizona Department of Transportation in late June to test and operate autonomous vehicles, with and without a driver. This approval represents the third autonomous vehicle test state for Tesla, following Texas and Nevada.

DOOR HANDLES: The National Highway Traffic Safety Administration posted in an investigation notice on its site, “The Office of Defects Investigation has received nine Vehicle Owners Questionnaires reporting an inability to open doors on Model Year 2021 Tesla Model Y vehicles. The most commonly reported scenarios involved parents exiting the vehicle after a drive cycle in order to remove a child from the back seat or placing a child in the back seat before starting a drive cycle. In those events, the parents were unable to reopen a door to regain access to the vehicle. Four of these VOQs reported resorting to breaking a window to regain entry into the vehicle. Although Tesla vehicles have manual door releases inside of the cabin, in these situations, a child may not be able to access or operate the releases even if the vehicle’s driver is aware of them. As a result, in these instances, an occupant who remains inside a vehicle in this condition may be unable to be rapidly retrieved by persons outside of the vehicle. Entrapment in a vehicle is particularly concerning in emergency situations, such as when children are entrapped in a hot vehicle… Based on ODI’s preliminary review, this condition appears to occur when the electronic door locks receive insufficient voltage from the vehicle. Available repair invoices report replacement of the vehicle’s low voltage battery after the incident. However, no VOQs reported seeing a low voltage battery warning prior to the exterior door handles becoming inoperative… ODI is opening this Preliminary Evaluation to assess the scope and severity of this condition, including the risks that arise from the conditions reported in the VOQs. This investigation will also assess the approach used by Tesla to supply power to the door locks and the reliability of the applicable power supplies. At this time, NHTSA’s investigation is focused on the operability of the electronic door locks from outside of the vehicle as that circumstance is the only one in which there is no manual way to open the door. The agency will continue to monitor any reports of entrapment involving opening doors from inside of the vehicle, and ODI will take further action as needed.”

Meanwhile, Tesla’s longtime design chief Franz von Holzhausen said on Bloomberg’s “Hot Pursuit!” podcast that the company is redesigning its vehicle door handles, which have drawn scrutiny over potential safety issues. The executive said the car maker is trying to combine the electronic and manual door-release mechanisms, which are presently in different locations, Bloomberg says, adding that he said the decisions is meant to make the handles more intuitive for occupants in a “panic situation.” “The idea of combining the electronic one and the manual one together into one button, I think, makes a lot of sense,” von Holzhausen said. “That’s something that we’re working on.” Tesla shares closed the regular session up 1%.

BUY NIO: UBS upgraded Nio (NIO) to Buy from Neutral with a price target of $8.50, up from $6.20. The company’s newest products could further attract customers after the $1B equity offerings bolstered visibility on Nio’s healthy operations, the firm tells investors in a research note. UBS expects Nio to achieve free cash flow breakeven in 2026.