The Dow Jones (DJIA) is close to unchanged on the day as investors digest a government shutdown and new jobs data.
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Key inflation and labor data from federal agencies will be suspended while the government faces a shutdown that began at 12:01 a.m. Eastern Time on Wednesday. That means greater emphasis will be placed on non-government data. The average government shutdown lasts 8.2 days, according to Carson Research, with the longest shutdown spanning 35 days and the shortest at just one day. Several other shutdowns have lasted 2, 3, and 4 days.
ADP private payrolls for September proved to be another warning sign from the labor market, with payrolls falling by 32,000 compared to the expectation for 51,000 additions. In addition, August’s data were revised lower by 57,000 to show a loss of 3,000 jobs.
“Despite the strong economic growth we saw in the second quarter, this month’s release further validates what we’ve been seeing in the labor market, that U.S. employers have been cautious with hiring,” said ADP chief economist Nela Richardson.
The Fed’s 25 bps reduction to the federal funds rate last month was a direct response to labor market risks. Following the ADP release, the odds of a rate cut at the October 28-29 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting jumped to 100%, up from 96.2% yesterday, according to CME’s FedWatch tool. The odds of two additional cuts by year-end, which would place the rate in a 3.50%-3.75% range, increased to 86.9% compared to 77.3% a day ago.
The Dow Jones is up by 0.02% at the time of writing.
Which Stocks are Moving the Dow Jones?
Let’s pivot to TipRanks’ Dow Jones Heatmap, which illustrates the stocks that have contributed to the index’s price action.
Within the healthcare sector, both Merck (MRK) and Amgen (AMGN) are surging after President Trump announced ‘TrumpRx,’ a drug-buying website with discounted prices negotiated by the government set to go live in early 2026. Both of these companies also have a manufacturing presence in the U.S., likely allowing them to escape Trump’s 100% tariff on foreign pharmaceuticals.
Nike (NKE) is also catching a bid after reporting its earnings. The sportswear company posted revenue of $11.72 billion, exceeding expectations for $11.0 billion, with an adjusted earnings per share of 49 cents compared to the estimate of 27 cents.
Elsewhere, tech is relatively muted on the day with the exception of Salesforce (CRM), which has shed about 8% during the past month.
DIA Stock Moves Higher with the Dow Jones
The SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (DIA) is an exchange-traded fund designed to track the movement of the Dow Jones. As a result, DIA is rising alongside the Dow Jones today.
Wall Street believes that DIA stock has room to rise. During the past three months, analysts have issued an average DIA price target of $504.16, implying upside of 8.76% from current prices. The 31 holdings in DIA carry 29 buy ratings, two hold ratings, and zero sell ratings.