The odds of a rate cut at the October 28-29 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting rose to 100% on CME’s FedWatch tool following a steep drop in private jobs.
Elevate Your Investing Strategy:
- Take advantage of TipRanks Premium at 55% off! Unlock powerful investing tools, advanced data, and expert analyst insights to help you invest with confidence.
September’s ADP private payrolls fell by 32,000 compared to the estimate for 51,000 additions. That marks the largest monthly decline since March 2023 and further casts doubt on the state of the labor market. Additionally, ADP revised August’s payrolls lower by 57,000 to a loss of 3,000 jobs.
Fed Lowers Rates to Address Labor Market Risks as More Cuts Likely
Last month, the Fed cut rates by 25 bps, the first reduction since December 2024. During the accompanying press conference, Fed Chair Jerome Powell said that the cut was primarily enacted to counter labor market risks and warned that job growth is no longer “solid.”
By the end of the year, there is a 10% chance of one more rate cut, an 89.1% chance of two more, and a 0.9% chance of three more.
Stay ahead of macro events with our up-to-the-minute Economic Calendar — filter by impact, country, and more.