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Exzeo Group, Inc.
(NYSE:XZO)
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Rating:74Outperform
Price Target:
$16.00
▼(-3.32% Downside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:09/07/26
The score is driven primarily by strong financial performance (rapid revenue growth, expanding margins, low leverage, and solid cash conversion), partially tempered by volatility and data consistency concerns. Technicals are neutral-to-slightly positive but mixed versus the 200-day trend, while valuation looks reasonable at a ~17.8 P/E. A newly authorized $25M buyback adds a supportive corporate catalyst.
Positive Factors
Revenue and Margin Expansion
The sharp 2025 revenue acceleration, combined with higher gross and net margins, indicates stronger operating leverage and improved profitability. If the expanded earnings base persists, Exzeo can generate more internal funding for growth while strengthening its competitive position over the next several quarters.
Negative Factors
Volatile Growth and Margins
The 2025 improvement is substantial, but the large year-to-year swings in revenue growth and profitability make the current earnings trajectory less predictable. Such volatility can complicate planning, weaken confidence in margin durability, and increase the risk that recent gains normalize.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Revenue and Margin Expansion
The sharp 2025 revenue acceleration, combined with higher gross and net margins, indicates stronger operating leverage and improved profitability. If the expanded earnings base persists, Exzeo can generate more internal funding for growth while strengthening its competitive position over the next several quarters.
Read all positive factors
Exzeo Group, Inc. (XZO) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$1.49B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)374.80K
Price to Earnings (P/E)17.7
Beta (1Y)1.90
Revenue GrowthN/A
EPS GrowthN/A
CountryUS
Employees354
SectorGeneral
Sector StrengthN/A
IndustryInsurance - Diversified
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.93
Shares Outstanding90,085,915
10 Day Avg. Volume209,374
30 Day Avg. Volume374,797
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.21
Price to Book (P/B)8.67
Price to Sales (P/S)10.16
P/FCF Ratio22.62
Enterprise Value/Market Cap0.91
Enterprise Value/Revenue6.12
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit10.02
Enterprise Value/Ebitda11.40
Forecast
1Y Price TargetN/A
Price Target UpsideN/A
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering2
EPS Forecast (FY)0.99
Revenue Forecast (FY)$222.38M
Exzeo Group, Inc. Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Exzeo Group, Inc. offers complete technology and operational services tailored for insurance carriers and agents. The core of their offering is an Insurance-as-a-Service (IaaS) platform designed to streamline essential administrative and operation...
Exzeo Group, Inc. Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:May 06, 2026
(Q1-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Nov 04, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call conveyed multiple substantive positives: solid top‑line growth, high profitability (≈49% adjusted EBITDA margin), strong free cash flow (123% conversion), balance sheet strength (debt‑free with $330M assets), early success diversifying managed premium with new carriers contributing ~$105M, and rapid AI‑driven product development (WinForm Pro) that demonstrates new monetization avenues. Near‑term constraints include revenue recognition timing limiting immediate revenue conversion of recently added premium, planned flat managed premium in Q2, product monetization expected to be modest initially, and concentration/seasonality risk from a Florida‑centric client base. Despite some transcript inconsistencies in reported figures, the fundamental operating metrics and guidance were positive and management is investing to scale, so the highlights outweigh the lowlights.Positive Updates
Managed Premium Growth and Diversification
Managed premium on the platform was reported at $1.43 billion (Suela) — up from $1.2 billion year‑over‑year (~+19%) — with three new carriers added in the past six months that contributed approximately $105 million (over 7% of managed premium), reflecting diversification beyond historical HCI sponsorship.
Negative Updates
Near‑term Revenue Recognition Timing
New premium additions joined mid‑to‑late quarter and only ~25–30% of premium is recognized upfront with remainder over time, so recent managed premium growth had limited immediate revenue impact and contributed less to 1Q revenue than headline premium growth might suggest.
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Q1-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Managed Premium Growth and Diversification
Managed premium on the platform was reported at $1.43 billion (Suela) — up from $1.2 billion year‑over‑year (~+19%) — with three new carriers added in the past six months that contributed approximately $105 million (over 7% of managed premium), reflecting diversification beyond historical HCI sponsorship.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management left 2026 guidance unchanged, forecasting full‑year pretax income of $115–$125 million and Q2 pretax income of $27–$30 million, with managed premium expected to remain roughly flat in Q2 at about $1.4 billion and to reach approximately $1.55 billion at year‑end; this guidance follows a strong Q1 that featured $1.43 billion of managed premium, pretax income just over $27 million, revenue of $56 million, adjusted EBITDA margin of ~49%, diluted EPS of $0.22, ARR of $216 million, free cash flow of ~$25 million (123% conversion versus ~$20 million net income), $330 million of investment assets, a debt‑free balance sheet, and shareholders’ equity of $275 million.Exzeo Group, Inc. Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
86
Very Positive
Balance Sheet
74
Positive
Cash Flow
81
Very Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2020 | Dec 2019 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 221.80M | 216.98M | 133.95M | 88.33M | 51.70M | 21.34M |
| Gross Profit | 135.60M | 131.02M | 52.87M | 16.98M | 2.06M | 5.94M |
| EBITDA | 119.18M | 113.23M | 40.38M | 4.76M | -7.59M | -1.05M |
| Net Income | 86.81M | 82.75M | 44.10M | 20.77M | -12.42M | -6.91M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 385.78M | 347.73M | 89.64M | 625.57M | 160.76M | 96.23M |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 136.73M | 305.37M | 54.50M | 15.05M | 103.87M | 52.35M |
| Total Debt | 6.62M | 7.25M | 8.35M | 65.93M | 22.32M | 738.00K |
| Total Liabilities | 97.61M | 93.58M | 74.13M | 554.71M | 154.21M | 79.27M |
| Stockholders Equity | 288.17M | 254.16M | 15.51M | 70.86M | 6.55M | 16.96M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 81.53M | 97.45M | 188.58M | 56.12M | 28.90M | 30.64M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 83.66M | 100.30M | 191.91M | 59.37M | 30.38M | 33.09M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -200.52M | -2.84M | -192.52M | -16.60M | -2.51M | -735.00K |
| Financing Cash Flow | 143.23M | 153.65M | -6.40M | -7.12M | 21.99M | 4.99M |
Exzeo Group, Inc. Technical Analysis
Positive
16.55
Price Trends
16.04
Positive
15.73
Positive
16.15
Positive
Market Momentum
0.18
Negative
57.10
Neutral
70.90
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For XZO, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 16.55 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 15.60, above the 50-day MA of 16.04, and above the 200-day MA of 16.15, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.18 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 57.10 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 70.90 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for XZO.
Exzeo Group, Inc. Risk Analysis
Exzeo Group, Inc. disclosed 59 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Exzeo Group, Inc. reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Exzeo Group, Inc. Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (55)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
81 Outperform | $34.56B | 7.74 | 19.52% | 5.16% | -0.21% | 31.57% | |
81 Outperform | $1.06B | 10.00 | 15.95% | 5.62% | -1.67% | ― | |
74 Outperform | $1.49B | 17.72 | 38.77% | ― | ― | ― | |
70 Outperform | $9.58B | 8.57 | 18.74% | 9.31% | 12.13% | 29.71% | |
61 Neutral | $1.61B | 31.69 | -32.52% | 5.56% | 17.74% | 18.77% | |
55 Neutral | $6.65B | 3.83 | -15.92% | 6.20% | 10.91% | 7.18% |
* General Sector Average
XZO
Exzeo Group, Inc.
17.00
-4.01
-19.09%
ACGL
Arch Capital Group
102.69
15.23
17.41%
ORI
Old Republic International
40.08
2.73
7.29%
IGIC
International General Insurance Holdings
25.07
3.98
18.88%
GSHD
GooseHead Insurance
50.62
-23.58
-31.78%
Exzeo Group, Inc. Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyStock Buyback
Exzeo Group Authorizes $25 Million Stock Buyback Program
Positive
Aug 14, 2026
On August 14, 2026, Exzeo Group, Inc. announced that its board had authorized a stock repurchase program of up to $25 million of its common shares, signaling a capital allocation move that may reflect confidence in the company’s valuation an...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.