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Expro Group Holdings (XPRO)
NYSE:XPRO

Expro Group Holdings (XPRO) AI Stock Analysis

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Expro Group Holdings

(NYSE:XPRO)

Rating:72Outperform
Price Target:
$9.50
▲(12.56%Upside)
Expro's strong financial performance and reasonable valuation support its stock score. However, technical indicators show bearish momentum, and market uncertainties from the earnings call contribute to a cautious outlook.
Positive Factors
Market Position
XPRO operates a formidable niche of proprietary technology, with strong moats in well test services and tubular running services that represent strategic assets within the broader OFS ecosystem.
Valuation
Despite the challenging 3Q results, the stock is now trading at just ~3.8x below-consensus '25 EBITDA forecast, which is considered too low for a company with differentiated businesses in offshore TRS and well testing.
Negative Factors
Investor Sentiment
Investors appear to be losing patience with XPRO after its 3Q EBITDA miss, FY24 EBITDA guide-down, and more subdued outlook for next year.
Revenue Target
White space concerns may limit the ability to drive similar pricing improvements in 2025, which will likely lead to the company falling short of reaching its $2bn mid-term revenue target on a run-rate basis.

Expro Group Holdings (XPRO) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Expro Group Holdings Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionExpro Group Holdings (XPRO) is a leading provider of energy services, primarily catering to the oil and gas industry. The company specializes in offering well flow management services, which include well testing, subsea, completion, and production services. Expro operates across various geographical sectors, delivering innovative solutions and high-quality service delivery to optimize production, enhance operational efficiency, and ensure safety in challenging environments.
How the Company Makes MoneyExpro Group Holdings generates revenue through its comprehensive range of services tailored for the oil and gas sector. The company earns money predominantly from contracts with oil and gas producers who require specialized well flow management services. Key revenue streams include well testing, subsea intervention, well completion, and production optimization services. Expro also engages in strategic partnerships and collaborations with major oil companies and engineering firms, enhancing its service offerings and expanding its market reach. Additionally, the company invests in technological advancements and innovations, which contribute to maintaining its competitive edge and securing long-term contracts with clients.

Expro Group Holdings Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Apr 30, 2025
(Q1-2025)
|
% Change Since: 4.98%|
Next Earnings Date:Jul 24, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
Expro's earnings call reflected a mix of strong first quarter performance and new contract awards, but also highlighted significant market uncertainties due to tariffs and geopolitical factors. While long-term prospects remain positive, near-term challenges such as market volatility and potential project delays contribute to a cautious outlook for 2025.
Q1-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Record First Quarter Performance
Expro's Q1 2025 revenue was $391 million with an adjusted EBITDA of $76 million or 20% of revenue, marking the highest first quarter performance in adjusted EBITDA and margin since the merger with Frank in October 2021.
Strong Contract Awards
Expro secured $272 million in new contract awards in the first quarter across various regions including the U.S., Brazil, and Indonesia, contributing to a healthy backlog of approximately $2.2 billion.
MENA Region Performance
The Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region delivered another excellent quarter with Q1 revenue of $94 million and an EBITDA margin of 37%, driven by higher well intervention integrity revenue in Qatar and higher production solutions revenue in Algeria.
Successful Cost Optimization
Expro's Drive 25 efficiency campaign identified over $30 million in run rate support cost savings, aiming to reduce support costs to around 19% of revenue.
Positive Long-term Outlook
Despite short-term uncertainties, Expro remains bullish on long-term demand for oil and gas, with expectations of a transition year in 2025 leading to a healthy level of sanctioning activity in 2026 and beyond.
Negative Updates
Market Volatility and Tariff Impact
Tariff announcements and OPEC+ production increases have introduced significant near-term uncertainty and volatility, potentially impacting Expro's activity and financial performance.
Challenges in Mexico and Offshore Saudi
Expro anticipates contractions in the U.S. land, Mexico, and offshore Saudi markets in 2025, which could affect overall activity levels.
Potential Delays in Offshore FID Approvals
The approval of offshore projects, particularly in West Africa, may be postponed to 2026 or 2027 due to current market conditions and customer caution.
Flat Revenue Expectation for 2025
Expro expects 2025 revenue to be generally flat relative to 2024 due to market uncertainties and potential delays in project approvals.
Company Guidance
During Expro's Q1 2025 earnings call, the company provided detailed guidance for the upcoming quarters and the full fiscal year. Expro reported revenue of $391 million and an adjusted EBITDA of $76 million, continuing a trend of margin improvement. The company secured $272 million in new contract awards, with a backlog of approximately $2.2 billion at quarter-end. For Q2 2025, Expro anticipates low to mid-single-digit sequential revenue growth and modest EBITDA margin expansion, with full-year revenue expected to be flat compared to 2024, but with stable or modestly improved margins. The guidance reflects a cautious outlook due to macroeconomic uncertainties, including global trade tensions and potential tariff impacts, but underscores Expro's resilience owing to its international and offshore market exposure. The company also highlighted its strategic focus on operational efficiency, cost control, and leveraging its zero net debt balance sheet for financial flexibility.

Expro Group Holdings Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Expro Group demonstrates strong revenue growth and improved profitability, with a significant rise in net profit margins. The balance sheet is robust with low debt and increasing equity. Cash flow improvement is notable, though further cash conversion optimization is needed.
Income Statement
85
Very Positive
Expro Group has shown robust revenue growth, moving from $675 million in 2020 to $1.72 billion TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) in 2025, marking a significant upward trajectory. The gross profit margin has improved significantly from negative in 2020 to 15.5% TTM. Net profit margins have turned positive, reaching 3.99% TTM, indicating a successful turnaround in profitability. However, EBIT and EBITDA margins suggest room for improvement in operating efficiency.
Balance Sheet
80
Positive
The balance sheet exhibits strong equity growth with stockholders' equity increasing from $612 million in 2020 to approximately $1.5 billion in 2025 TTM. The debt-to-equity ratio is favorably low at 0.05 TTM, highlighting prudent leverage management. However, the equity ratio remains stable but could improve to ensure financial stability under potential market fluctuations.
Cash Flow
78
Positive
Expro's cash flow statements reveal a positive shift, with free cash flow turning positive from a deficit in 2020 to $35 million TTM. Operating cash flow has grown consistently, supporting ongoing capital expenditures. Although free cash flow growth is notable, enhancing the free cash flow to net income ratio would indicate better cash profitability.
Breakdown
TTMDec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021Dec 2020
Income StatementTotal Revenue
1.72B1.71B1.51B1.28B825.76M675.03M
Gross Profit
221.07M215.97M99.21M82.30M731.00K-5.54M
EBIT
104.62M94.17M10.80M45.35M-18.73M-322.29M
EBITDA
282.01M273.95M197.15M166.41M17.04M88.12M
Net Income Common Stockholders
68.54M51.92M-23.36M-20.14M-131.89M-307.05M
Balance SheetCash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
179.31M183.04M151.74M214.79M235.39M116.92M
Total Assets
2.29B2.33B2.01B1.94B1.85B1.04B
Total Debt
202.63M203.05M110.88M94.72M110.30M90.84M
Net Debt
23.32M20.01M-40.86M-120.06M-125.09M-26.09M
Total Liabilities
793.34M842.06M717.13M651.26M557.07M427.77M
Stockholders Equity
1.50B1.49B1.30B1.29B1.30B611.98M
Cash FlowFree Cash Flow
35.10M25.90M16.20M-9.70M-65.37M-42.00M
Operating Cash Flow
181.05M169.48M138.31M80.17M16.14M70.39M
Investing Cash Flow
-167.52M-165.14M-148.23M-71.21M112.05M-96.77M
Financing Cash Flow
-423.00K29.57M-49.34M-25.61M-7.18M-625.00K

Expro Group Holdings Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Positive
Last Price8.44
Price Trends
50DMA
8.69
Negative
100DMA
10.70
Negative
200DMA
13.19
Negative
Market Momentum
MACD
-0.14
Negative
RSI
51.64
Neutral
STOCH
54.79
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For XPRO, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 8.44 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 8.21, below the 50-day MA of 8.69, and below the 200-day MA of 13.19, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.14 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 51.64 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 54.79 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for XPRO.

Expro Group Holdings Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (57)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
RERES
76
Outperform
$1.01B12.957.06%3.51%-9.78%-49.45%
OIOII
73
Outperform
$1.94B10.7826.17%10.04%68.14%
72
Outperform
$953.13M14.124.91%10.48%
69
Neutral
$1.00B24.174.51%3.12%-4.91%-46.51%
HLHLX
66
Neutral
$959.19M11.425.64%0.34%
MRMRC
65
Neutral
$1.09B41.188.29%-9.84%-111.71%
57
Neutral
$7.10B3.09-3.48%5.73%0.74%-50.59%
* Energy Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
XPRO
Expro Group Holdings
8.44
-13.24
-61.07%
HLX
Helix Energy
6.27
-4.96
-44.17%
MRC
MRC Global
12.52
-0.55
-4.21%
OII
Oceaneering International
19.07
-4.31
-18.43%
RES
RPC
4.49
-1.99
-30.71%
WTTR
Select Energy Services
8.17
-2.24
-21.52%

Expro Group Holdings Corporate Events

Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Expro Group Reports Strong Q1 2025 Financials
Positive
Apr 30, 2025

Expro Group Holdings N.V. reported a solid financial performance for the first quarter of 2025, with revenue of $391 million and an adjusted EBITDA of $76 million, marking the highest first quarter adjusted EBITDA since its merger with Frank’s in 2021. Despite a decrease in revenue due to lower activity in several regions, the company achieved a net income of $14 million and continued to expand its adjusted EBITDA margin. Expro secured significant contracts, including a $50 million TRS contract in the Gulf of America and a $15 million intervention services contract in Indonesia, underscoring its commitment to delivering cost-effective, technology-driven solutions. The company remains optimistic about its medium- to long-term prospects, despite near-term uncertainties in the energy services industry.

Glossary
OutperformA stock rated as "Outperform" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider this stock a good buying opportunity.
NeutralA stock rated as "Neutral" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly attractive nor unattractive for investment. Investors may consider holding onto the stock, as it is not expected to either significantly outperform or underperform the market.
UnderperformA stock rated as "Underperform" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock may deliver lower returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider selling the stock or avoiding it as an investment.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.