XPEL (XPEL) AI Stock Analysis

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XPEL

(NASDAQ:XPEL)

80Outperform

XPEL's robust financial health and strong earnings performance in key regions underpin its solid overall score. While technical indicators suggest potential caution due to high RSI, the company's strategic initiatives and growth prospects contribute positively. The valuation is reasonable, supporting further interest in the stock.

XPEL (XPEL) vs. S&P 500 (SPY)

Market Cap

$924.41M

Dividend YieldN/A

Average Volume (3M)282.45K

Price to Earnings (P/E)19.5

Beta (1Y)1.03

Revenue Growth8.37%

EPS Growth-1.37%

CountryUS

Employees1,143

SectorConsumer Cyclical

Sector Strength57

IndustryAuto - Parts

Share Statistics

EPS (TTM)0.31

Shares Outstanding27,652,225

10 Day Avg. Volume335,854

30 Day Avg. Volume282,447

Financial Highlights & Ratios

PEG RatioN/A

Price to Book (P/B)N/A

Price to Sales (P/S)0.00

Price to Cash Flow (P/CF)0.00

P/FCF Ratio0.00

Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.19

Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A

Enterprise Value/Gross Profit6.22

Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A

Forecast

1Y Price Target

$45.00

Price Target Upside34.61% Upside

Rating ConsensusModerate Buy

Number of Analyst Covering1

XPEL Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionXPEL, Inc. manufactures, sells, distributes, and installs after-market automotive products. The company offers automotive surface and paint protection films, headlight protection, and automotive and architectural window films, as well as proprietary software. It also provides merchandise and apparel; ceramic coatings; and tools and accessories, which includes squeegees and microfiber towels, application fluids, plotter cutters, knives, and other products. In addition, the company offers paint protection kits, car wash products, after-care products, and installation tools through its website. It sells its products to independent installers and new car dealerships, third-party distributors, and company-owned installation centers, as well as through franchisees and online sales channels. The company serves in the United States, China, Canada, Continental Europe, the United Kingdom, Asia Pacific, Latin America, the Middle East/Africa, and internationally. XPEL, Inc. was founded in 1997 and is headquartered in San Antonio, Texas.

How the Company Makes MoneyXPEL generates revenue primarily through the sale and distribution of its protective film products. The company's revenue model is centered around direct sales to consumers, partnerships with automotive dealerships, and collaborations with professional installers. Significant revenue streams include the sale of paint protection films and window tints, which are marketed for their ability to protect vehicle surfaces and interiors from damage and wear. XPEL's partnerships with automotive dealers and aftermarket service providers play a crucial role in expanding its market reach and enhancing sales volumes. Additionally, the company's global distribution network and focus on high-quality product innovation contribute to its strong market position and revenue growth.

XPEL Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)

Any

Product Revenue by Type

Product Revenue by Type
Analyzes revenue from different product lines, providing insight into which products drive growth and which may need strategic adjustments.

Chart InsightsXPEL's Paint Protection Film continues to be a stable revenue driver, with consistent growth despite a slight dip in early 2024. The Window Film segment shows robust expansion, particularly in Q4 2024, aligning with the earnings call's highlight of a 32.9% growth driven by automotive demand and strategic partnerships. Despite macroeconomic challenges, including a decline in the Chinese market, XPEL's strategic focus on product diversification and geographic expansion, such as the successful launch of windshield protection film, positions the company for sustained growth.

Data provided by:

Main Street Data

XPEL Financial Statement Overview

Summary

XPEL maintains a strong financial position with consistent revenue and profit growth, a low Debt-to-Equity Ratio, and robust cash flow management. The company is well-positioned for future growth, though improvements in operational efficiencies could enhance profitability further.

Income Statement

Very Positive

XPEL has demonstrated solid revenue growth with a TTM increase to $420.4M from $396.3M in the previous year, reflecting a growth rate of 6.08%. Gross Profit Margin is stable at 42.2%, and Net Profit Margin is strong at 10.82%. However, EBIT and EBITDA margins have slightly decreased, indicating some pressure on operational efficiency.

Balance Sheet

Positive

The company maintains a healthy balance sheet with a low Debt-to-Equity Ratio of 0.093, indicating strong equity backing. The Return on Equity (ROE) is impressive at 20.17%, showing effective use of equity capital. The Equity Ratio is high at 78.9%, highlighting a solid financial foundation. However, overall asset growth could be optimized further.

Cash Flow

Very Positive

XPEL exhibits robust cash flow management with a substantial Free Cash Flow growth of 38.2% in the TTM. The Operating Cash Flow to Net Income Ratio is 1.05, reflecting efficient conversion of net income into cash. The Free Cash Flow to Net Income Ratio is 0.90, underscoring strong free cash flow generation aligned with profitability.

Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Breakdown
Income Statement		Total Revenue
420.40M	396.29M	323.99M	259.26M	158.92M
	Gross Profit
177.36M	162.41M	127.51M	92.68M	54.03M
	EBIT
59.15M	66.97M	53.94M	40.12M	23.37M
	EBITDA
69.47M	76.87M	61.77M	40.12M	23.37M
	Net Income Common Stockholders
45.49M	52.80M	41.38M	31.57M	18.28M
Balance Sheet		Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
22.09M	11.61M	8.06M	9.64M	29.03M
	Total Assets
285.61M	252.04M	193.36M	161.01M	83.84M
	Total Debt
21.08M	36.06M	42.08M	38.26M	12.12M
	Net Debt
-1.00M	24.45M	34.02M	28.61M	-16.91M
	Total Liabilities
60.15M	72.05M	68.64M	76.55M	30.46M
	Stockholders Equity
225.46M	179.99M	124.72M	84.46M	53.38M
Cash Flow		Free Cash Flow
41.11M	29.74M	2.50M	10.58M	16.31M
	Operating Cash Flow
47.82M	37.38M	12.06M	18.27M	18.47M
	Investing Cash Flow
-18.40M	-26.35M	-14.16M	-56.81M	-4.66M
	Financing Cash Flow
-19.25M	-7.26M	602.00K	19.24M	3.51M

XPEL Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment

Positive

Last Price33.43

Price Trends

50DMA

29.66

Positive

100DMA

35.59

Positive

200DMA

38.97

Negative

Market Momentum

MACD

0.63

Negative

RSI

73.77

Negative

STOCH

73.79

Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For XPEL, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 33.43 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 27.97, above the 50-day MA of 29.66, and below the 200-day MA of 38.97, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.63 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 73.77 is Negative, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 73.79 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for XPEL.

XPEL Risk Analysis

XPEL disclosed 52 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. XPEL reported the most risks in the “Finance & Corporate” category.

Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy

Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

XPEL Peers Comparison

Overall Rating

UnderperformOutperform

Sector (61)

Financial Indicators

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
XPEL	80 Outperform	$924.41M	19.50	22.48%	―	8.37%	-1.37%
PLOW	77 Outperform	$589.01M	9.04	26.52%	4.63%	1.14%	127.08%
SMP	73 Outperform	$619.86M	10.86	9.00%	4.20%	13.53%	-4.76%
THRM	68 Neutral	$793.71M	16.14	7.74%	―	-0.51%	9.10%
FOXF	63 Neutral	$840.09M	128.36	0.54%	―	-4.80%	-94.50%
ADNT	62 Neutral	$1.06B	805.10	-0.10%	―	-5.42%	-99.08%
Sector *	61 Neutral	$6.58B	11.77	3.05%	3.99%	2.61%	-21.52%

* Consumer Cyclical Sector Average

Performance Comparison

XPEL

35.60

3.31

10.25%

PLOW

Douglas Dynamics

25.50

2.40

10.39%

SMP

Standard Motor Products

28.20

-3.08

-9.85%

FOXF

Fox Factory Holding

20.32

-25.35

-55.51%

THRM

Gentherm

25.87

-25.70

-49.84%

ADNT

Adient

12.58

-15.98

-55.95%

XPEL Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:May 06, 2025

(Q1-2025)

% Change Since: 14.41%|

Next Earnings Date:Aug 06, 2025

Earnings Call Sentiment Positive

The earnings call presented a generally positive outlook with strong revenue growth, particularly in the U.S. and Middle East regions, and significant increases in EBITDA and window film sales. However, challenges remain in the Canadian market with declining revenue and customer sentiment, as well as ongoing strategic adjustments in China amid tariff concerns. Despite these lowlights, the overall sentiment leans towards optimism with strategic investments and cost management initiatives in place.

Q1-2025 Updates

Positive Updates

Revenue Growth

Revenue grew 15.2% to $103.8 million with strong performance in the U.S. region which saw an 11.6% increase to $58.1 million.

EBITDA Increase

EBITDA grew 23.2% to $14.4 million, marking a 14% EBITDA margin.

Record Revenue in the Middle East

The Middle East region achieved record revenue in the quarter.

Strong Performance of Window Films

Total window film product line grew 28.1% in the quarter, with automotive window tint up by 16.2% and architectural window film by 9.6%.

Solid Gross Margin

Gross margin performance was strong at 42.3%.

Share Repurchase Plan

Announced a $50 million share repurchase plan authorization.

Negative Updates

Revenue Decline in Canada

Revenue in the Canada region declined 14.9% to $9.4 million, with a notable challenge in customer sentiment.

Challenges in China Market

Although China revenue was in line with expectations, the company faces ongoing adjustments to market strategy and potential impacts from tariff situations.

SG&A Expense Increase

SG&A expenses grew 14.4% to $32.8 million, including a significant $0.4 million in restructuring costs.

Company Guidance

During the first quarter of 2025 earnings call, XPEL Incorporated reported a revenue increase of 15.2% to $103.8 million, with the U.S. region contributing $58.1 million, reflecting an 11.6% growth. The company's EBITDA grew by 23.2% to $14.4 million, achieving a 14% EBITDA margin. XPEL's gross margin stood at 42.3%. Despite a 14.9% decline in Canada's revenue to $9.4 million, the company experienced record revenue in the Middle East and its second-highest quarter in Europe. The company's total window film product line saw a 28.1% growth, driven by new windshield protection film products. SG&A expenses grew 14.4% to $32.8 million, with restructuring costs contributing $400,000 in Q1 and $300,000 anticipated in Q2. XPEL announced a $50 million share repurchase plan, emphasizing continued investment in business growth and cost management. The company expects Q2 revenue to range between $117 million and $119 million, while maintaining a focus on optimizing its business strategy amid tariff uncertainties.

Glossary

OutperformA stock rated as "Outperform" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider this stock a good buying opportunity.

NeutralA stock rated as "Neutral" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly attractive nor unattractive for investment. Investors may consider holding onto the stock, as it is not expected to either significantly outperform or underperform the market.

UnderperformA stock rated as "Underperform" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock may deliver lower returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider selling the stock or avoiding it as an investment.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.