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XPEL Inc (XPEL)
NASDAQ:XPEL

XPEL (XPEL) AI Stock Analysis

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XPEL

(NASDAQ:XPEL)

Rating:78Outperform
Price Target:
$43.00
▲(14.18%Upside)
XPEL's overall stock score reflects strong financial performance and positive earnings sentiment. Technical indicators show a bullish trend, while the valuation remains fair. The lack of dividend yield and regional challenges are minor concerns amidst the company's growth trajectory.

XPEL (XPEL) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

XPEL Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionXPEL, Inc. manufactures, sells, distributes, and installs after-market automotive products. The company offers automotive surface and paint protection films, headlight protection, and automotive and architectural window films, as well as proprietary software. It also provides merchandise and apparel; ceramic coatings; and tools and accessories, which includes squeegees and microfiber towels, application fluids, plotter cutters, knives, and other products. In addition, the company offers paint protection kits, car wash products, after-care products, and installation tools through its website. It sells its products to independent installers and new car dealerships, third-party distributors, and company-owned installation centers, as well as through franchisees and online sales channels. The company serves in the United States, China, Canada, Continental Europe, the United Kingdom, Asia Pacific, Latin America, the Middle East/Africa, and internationally. XPEL, Inc. was founded in 1997 and is headquartered in San Antonio, Texas.
How the Company Makes MoneyXPEL generates revenue primarily through the sale of its protective film products and related services. The company's key revenue streams include direct sales to automotive dealerships, service centers, and aftermarket suppliers, as well as sales through a network of distributors. XPEL also earns income from providing installation training and support services to its partners. Significant partnerships with automotive manufacturers and dealerships enhance the company's market reach and contribute to its earnings. Additionally, XPEL's expanding product line into residential and commercial sectors provides new revenue opportunities.

XPEL Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)

Any
Any
Product Revenue by Type
Product Revenue by Type
Analyzes revenue from different product lines, providing insight into which products drive growth and which may need strategic adjustments.
Chart InsightsXPEL's Paint Protection Film revenue shows steady growth with occasional dips, while Window Film revenue has surged, driven by new windshield protection products. The latest earnings call highlights a 28.1% growth in the window film line, reflecting strategic success. Despite challenges in Canada and China, strong U.S. and Middle East performance, along with a $50 million share repurchase plan, indicate confidence in future growth. The focus on cost management and strategic investments suggests resilience amid market uncertainties.
Data provided by:Main Street Data

XPEL Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:May 06, 2025
(Q1-2025)
|
% Change Since: 28.88%|
Next Earnings Date:Aug 06, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The earnings call presented a generally positive outlook with strong revenue growth, particularly in the U.S. and Middle East regions, and significant increases in EBITDA and window film sales. However, challenges remain in the Canadian market with declining revenue and customer sentiment, as well as ongoing strategic adjustments in China amid tariff concerns. Despite these lowlights, the overall sentiment leans towards optimism with strategic investments and cost management initiatives in place.
Q1-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Revenue Growth
Revenue grew 15.2% to $103.8 million with strong performance in the U.S. region which saw an 11.6% increase to $58.1 million.
EBITDA Increase
EBITDA grew 23.2% to $14.4 million, marking a 14% EBITDA margin.
Record Revenue in the Middle East
The Middle East region achieved record revenue in the quarter.
Strong Performance of Window Films
Total window film product line grew 28.1% in the quarter, with automotive window tint up by 16.2% and architectural window film by 9.6%.
Solid Gross Margin
Gross margin performance was strong at 42.3%.
Share Repurchase Plan
Announced a $50 million share repurchase plan authorization.
Negative Updates
Revenue Decline in Canada
Revenue in the Canada region declined 14.9% to $9.4 million, with a notable challenge in customer sentiment.
Challenges in China Market
Although China revenue was in line with expectations, the company faces ongoing adjustments to market strategy and potential impacts from tariff situations.
SG&A Expense Increase
SG&A expenses grew 14.4% to $32.8 million, including a significant $0.4 million in restructuring costs.
Company Guidance
During the first quarter of 2025 earnings call, XPEL Incorporated reported a revenue increase of 15.2% to $103.8 million, with the U.S. region contributing $58.1 million, reflecting an 11.6% growth. The company's EBITDA grew by 23.2% to $14.4 million, achieving a 14% EBITDA margin. XPEL's gross margin stood at 42.3%. Despite a 14.9% decline in Canada's revenue to $9.4 million, the company experienced record revenue in the Middle East and its second-highest quarter in Europe. The company's total window film product line saw a 28.1% growth, driven by new windshield protection film products. SG&A expenses grew 14.4% to $32.8 million, with restructuring costs contributing $400,000 in Q1 and $300,000 anticipated in Q2. XPEL announced a $50 million share repurchase plan, emphasizing continued investment in business growth and cost management. The company expects Q2 revenue to range between $117 million and $119 million, while maintaining a focus on optimizing its business strategy amid tariff uncertainties.

XPEL Financial Statement Overview

Summary
XPEL exhibits strong financial performance with consistent revenue and profitability growth. Their solid balance sheet shows low leverage and effective equity utilization. However, slight profit volatility and cash flow fluctuations require attention.
Income Statement
85
Very Positive
XPEL has demonstrated strong revenue growth with a consistent upward trajectory from 2020 to TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months). The Gross Profit Margin is solid, indicating efficient cost management. The Net Profit Margin and EBIT Margin are healthy, reflecting good operational efficiency. However, slight fluctuations in Net Income suggest potential volatility in profit generation.
Balance Sheet
80
Positive
The company maintains a strong Equity Ratio, signifying financial stability and low leverage risk. The Debt-to-Equity ratio is favorable, suggesting low reliance on external debt. Return on Equity is robust, indicating effective use of equity capital. Overall, the balance sheet reflects a healthy financial position with manageable liabilities.
Cash Flow
78
Positive
Operating Cash Flow has improved significantly, supporting net income with a positive Operating Cash Flow to Net Income Ratio. Free Cash Flow growth is notable, though capital expenditures have impacted cash reserves. The company exhibits good cash flow management, though there are potential risks associated with investment and financing cash flow fluctuations.
Breakdown
TTMDec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021Dec 2020
Income StatementTotal Revenue
67.75M420.40M396.29M323.99M259.26M158.92M
Gross Profit
16.77M177.36M162.41M127.51M92.68M54.03M
EBIT
2.24M59.15M66.97M53.94M40.12M23.37M
EBITDA
4.00M69.47M76.87M61.77M40.12M23.37M
Net Income Common Stockholders
1.19M45.49M52.80M41.38M31.57M18.28M
Balance SheetCash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
4.38M22.09M11.61M8.06M9.64M29.03M
Total Assets
38.63M285.61M252.04M193.36M161.01M83.84M
Total Debt
5.91M21.08M36.06M42.08M38.26M12.12M
Net Debt
1.53M-1.00M24.45M34.02M28.61M-16.91M
Total Liabilities
16.08M60.15M72.05M68.64M76.55M30.46M
Stockholders Equity
22.74M225.46M179.99M124.72M84.46M53.38M
Cash FlowFree Cash Flow
1.75M41.11M29.74M2.50M10.58M16.31M
Operating Cash Flow
3.95M47.82M37.38M12.06M18.27M18.47M
Investing Cash Flow
-3.31M-18.40M-26.35M-14.16M-56.81M-4.66M
Financing Cash Flow
1.56M-19.25M-7.26M602.00K19.24M3.51M

XPEL Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Positive
Last Price37.66
Price Trends
50DMA
32.20
Positive
100DMA
34.63
Positive
200DMA
38.59
Negative
Market Momentum
MACD
1.17
Positive
RSI
61.58
Neutral
STOCH
80.50
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For XPEL, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 37.66 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 36.69, above the 50-day MA of 32.20, and below the 200-day MA of 38.59, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 1.17 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 61.58 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 80.50 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for XPEL.

XPEL Risk Analysis

XPEL disclosed 52 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. XPEL reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

XPEL Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (63)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
SMSMP
80
Outperform
$673.06M11.839.00%3.97%13.53%-4.76%
79
Outperform
$669.82M10.7026.52%4.14%1.14%127.04%
78
Outperform
$1.04B22.0222.48%8.37%-1.37%
70
Outperform
$885.68M17.667.74%-0.51%9.10%
63
Neutral
$1.48B805.10-14.33%-5.33%-292.58%
63
Neutral
$6.98B11.412.80%4.24%2.68%-24.94%
55
Neutral
$1.15B128.36-23.41%1.26%-435.73%
* Consumer Cyclical Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
XPEL
XPEL
37.66
-1.98
-4.99%
PLOW
Douglas Dynamics
28.73
5.47
23.52%
SMP
Standard Motor Products
30.84
2.81
10.02%
FOXF
Fox Factory Holding
27.72
-19.07
-40.76%
THRM
Gentherm
28.14
-24.84
-46.89%
ADNT
Adient
18.80
-8.84
-31.98%

XPEL Corporate Events

Executive/Board ChangesShareholder MeetingsBusiness Operations and Strategy
XPEL Holds Annual Stockholders Meeting on June 4, 2025
Positive
Jun 9, 2025

On June 4, 2025, XPEL, Inc. held its annual stockholders meeting, where key decisions were made. The meeting included the election of five board directors, the ratification of Deloitte & Touche, LLP as the accounting firm, approval of executive compensation, and the adoption of the 2025 Employee Stock Purchase Plan, reflecting strong shareholder support and strategic alignment for the company’s future operations.

The most recent analyst rating on (XPEL) stock is a Buy with a $52.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on XPEL stock, see the XPEL Stock Forecast page.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.