Vonovia SE Shs Unsponsored American Depositary Receipt Repr 1/2 Sh (VONOY) AI Stock Analysis

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Vonovia SE Shs Unsponsored American Depositary Receipt Repr 1/2 Sh

(Other OTC:VONOY)

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Rating:64Neutral

Price Target:$10.00▲(5.40% Upside)

Action:downgraded

Date:11/04/26

Attractive valuation and solid financial recovery are primary positives, while weak technical indicators and cautious earnings guidance limit the score.

Positive Factors

Resilient Rental OperationsRental growth, very high collection rates, and low vacancy demonstrate durable demand for Vonovia’s housing portfolio. This recurring operating base supports predictable revenue and cash generation, while occupancy resilience provides a foundation for continued rent increases and property-level earnings.

Negative Factors

Elevated LeverageLeverage remains materially above management’s desired approximately 40% LTV and below-12x net debt-to-EBITDA objectives. This increases sensitivity to property valuations and refinancing costs, while making deleveraging dependent on disposals, cash discipline, and a functioning transaction market.

Vonovia SE Shs Unsponsored American Depositary Receipt Repr 1/2 Sh (VONOY) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Market Cap: $16.15B
Dividend Yield: 6.92%
Average Volume (3M): 267.62K
Price to Earnings (P/E): 3.7
Beta (1Y): 0.41
Revenue Growth: -14.52%
EPS Growth: 972.88%
Country: US
Employees: 12,708
Sector: Real Estate
Sector Strength: 65
Industry: Real Estate - Services

Vonovia SE Shs Unsponsored American Depositary Receipt Repr 1/2 Sh Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Vonovia SE functions as an integrated residential real estate enterprise operating across Europe. Its business activities are structured into five distinct segments: Rental, Value-Add, Recurring Sales, Development, and Deutsche Wohnen. The firm deliv...

How the Company Makes Money

Vonovia primarily makes money by generating recurring rental income from its large portfolio of residential properties. Tenants pay monthly rent, and this rental business is supported by in-house property management operations that handle leasing, ma...

Vonovia SE Shs Unsponsored American Depositary Receipt Repr 1/2 Sh Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Nov 03, 2026(Q3-2026)|% Change Since:3.97%|Next Earnings Date:Feb 17, 2027

Earnings Call SentimentNeutral

The call presented a resilient core operating business, particularly in rental and value-add, alongside meaningful disposal progress, strong refinancing access, and attractive opportunities in modernization, AI, and B2B services. However, these positives were offset by higher financing costs, weaker transaction activity, lower development and recurring-sales contributions, cautious valuation expectations, and a more challenging path to the 40% LTV target. The balance of strong operations and significant financial and market constraints supports a neutral overall assessment.

Positive Updates

Resilient Rental Performance

Rental revenue increased by 3% to approximately EUR 2.6 billion despite 5,000 fewer units, while rental EBITDA increased by 3.5% to approximately EUR 1.9 billion. Organic rent growth was 3.8%, vacancy was 2.3%, and the collection rate remained at 99.6%.

Negative Updates

Higher Financing Costs Offset EBITDA Growth

Adjusted EBITDA increased by 3.3% to approximately EUR 2.2 billion, but the growth was offset by higher financing expenses. Adjusted EBT was around EUR 1.4 billion, or EUR 1.66 per share, and adjusted shareholder earnings were approximately EUR 1.12 billion, or EUR 1.32 per share.

Company Guidance

For 2026, Vonovia guided to investment volume of EUR 1.3 billion, year-end organic rent growth of 3.8%, adjusted EBITDA total in the bottom half of the range, adjusted EBT around the low end of the range, and adjusted shareholder earnings towards the upper half of the range. For 2027 and '28, adjusted EBITDA total is expected to show growth only towards the lower end of the original 2028 ambition range, while adjusted EBT and adjusted shareholder earnings are estimated to move broadly sideways; planning assumes 5% refinancing cost, with 5%, 5.5% in the planning going forward. The targets remain approximately 40% LTV, net debt-to-EBITDA below 12x and ICR comfortably above 3x, although reaching 40% LTV already 2028 will be more demanding; the long-term rental growth guidance is 4.5%, and AI-driven productivity gains are expected to contribute around EUR 50 million annually by 2030.

Vonovia SE Shs Unsponsored American Depositary Receipt Repr 1/2 Sh Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Strong profitability recovery with 60.7% net margin and positive cash flows, tempered by balance sheet leverage and historical volatility.

Income Statement

75Positive

Balance Sheet

65Positive

Cash Flow

70Positive

Financial statement breakdown
Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	6.24B	4.78B	5.94B	5.23B	5.15B	3.62B
Gross Profit	3.55B	2.39B	2.25B	2.47B	2.86B	2.23B
EBITDA	4.52B	2.96B	408.00M	-7.90B	1.26B	9.81B
Net Income	3.88B	3.58B	-896.00M	-6.29B	-669.40M	2.68B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	93.07B	93.22B	90.24B	92.00B	101.39B	105.91B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	1.85B	3.26B	2.02B	1.59B	1.20B	1.32B
Total Debt	42.89B	43.29B	43.21B	43.49B	45.69B	47.69B
Total Liabilities	61.19B	61.06B	62.11B	62.05B	66.95B	69.78B
Stockholders Equity	27.19B	27.45B	24.00B	25.68B	31.33B	33.29B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	1.27B	1.26B	2.40B	1.90B	1.86B	1.47B
Operating Cash Flow	1.40B	1.59B	2.40B	1.90B	2.08B	1.82B
Investing Cash Flow	-874.70M	-387.38M	-187.60M	-825.90M	938.20M	-19.12B
Financing Cash Flow	-378.52M	182.69M	-1.82B	-961.00M	-3.15B	18.13B

Vonovia SE Shs Unsponsored American Depositary Receipt Repr 1/2 Sh Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis SentimentNeutral

Last Price9.49

Price Trends

50DMA9.89Negative

100DMA10.97Negative

200DMA12.04Negative

Market Momentum

MACD-0.18Negative

RSI51.73Neutral

STOCH73.58Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For VONOY, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 9.49 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 9.23, below the 50-day MA of 9.89, and below the 200-day MA of 12.04, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.18 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 51.73 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 73.58 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for VONOY.

Vonovia SE Shs Unsponsored American Depositary Receipt Repr 1/2 Sh Peers Comparison

Overall Rating

UnderperformOutperform

Sector (65)

Financial Indicators

VONOY against its peers
Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
JLL	72Outperform	$17.11B	16.57	14.64%	―	11.40%	76.93%
BEKE	68Neutral	$19.94B	28.08	6.99%	1.49%	-11.19%	30.74%
CSGP	66Neutral	$12.60B	74.50	2.23%	―	20.20%	745.11%
Sector *	65Neutral	$2.17B	12.19	3.79%	4.94%	3.15%	1.96%
CWK	65Neutral	$3.20B	51.16	3.48%	―	11.04%	-66.92%
VONOY	64Neutral	$15.57B	3.67	14.27%	6.92%	-14.52%	972.88%
CBRE	60Neutral	$39.06B	30.02	16.03%	―	14.17%	15.41%

* Real Estate Sector Average

Performance Comparison

VONOY and its peers over the selected period
Ticker	Company Name	Price	Change	% Change
VONOY	Vonovia SE Shs Unsponsored American Depositary Receipt Repr 1/2 Sh	9.49	-4.42	-31.79%
CBRE	Cbre Group	141.11	-8.88	-5.92%
CSGP	CoStar Group	32.58	-34.78	-51.63%
JLL	Jones Lang Lasalle	390.33	102.26	35.50%
CWK	Cushman & Wakefield	14.93	-0.49	-3.18%
BEKE	KE Holdings Inc. Sponsored ADR Class A	18.57	3.01	19.31%

Glossary

BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.

Date of analysis: Nov 04, 2026

Vonovia SE Shs Unsponsored American Depositary Receipt Repr 1/2 Sh AI Stock Analysis