Vonovia SE Shs Unsponsored American Depositary Receipt Repr 1/2 Sh (VONOY) AI Stock Analysis

Company Guidance

Vonovia reiterated full‑year 2026 and medium‑term 2028 targets while flagging downside risk in the sales segments: for 2026 it guides rental revenue of EUR 3.45–3.55bn, organic rent growth of ~4% (revised down 20bps), total investments of ~EUR 1.4bn, adjusted EBITDA of EUR 2.95–3.05bn, adjusted EBT of EUR 1.9–2.0bn and adjusted shareholder earnings of EUR 1.4–1.5bn; for 2028 it targets rental revenue EUR 3.7–3.8bn, organic rent growth ~5%, investments ~EUR 2bn, adjusted EBITDA EUR 3.2–3.5bn, adjusted EBT mid‑single‑digit CAGR (2024–28) and adjusted EBITDA mix goals of Value‑add 9–12%, Recurring Sales 5–8% and Development 4–5%; leverage targets remain LTV ≈40%, net debt/EBITDA <12x and ICR comfortably >3x by year‑end 2028. The company points to H1 progress — adjusted EBITDA ~EUR 1.46bn, operating free cash flow EUR 607.5m, like‑for‑like value growth +1.1% excl. investments (+1.8% incl.), fair value ~EUR 81.8bn, refinancings ~EUR 4.4bn (avg. duration ~8 years, avg. euro coupon ~3.2%), trimmed 2027 refinancing to ~EUR 3bn and disposals ~EUR 700m (including ~EUR 200m Vesteda) — but cautions that weaker H2 sales activity could make the upper half of 2026 EBITDA/EBT guidance ambitious (while potentially supporting adjusted shareholder earnings via lower tax outflows).