voestalpine AG (VLPNY) AI Stock Analysis

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voestalpine AG

(Other OTC:VLPNY)

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Rating:64Neutral

Price Target:$10.00▲(8.45% Upside)

Action:reiterated

Date:08/10/26

The score is primarily supported by improving financial performance and a solid, low-leverage balance sheet, while technicals also indicate a constructive uptrend. The main constraint is valuation (P/E ~20 with only ~1.62% yield) alongside softer recent free-cash-flow momentum.

Positive Factors

Revenue and margin reboundThe sharp TTM revenue rebound and broader margin improvement indicate stronger operating performance than the prior annual period. If maintained, this recovery can improve earnings capacity, support investment in higher-value products, and strengthen the company’s position across industrial end markets over the next several quarters.

Negative Factors

Profitability below prior peaksAlthough profitability has improved, returns remain well below the company’s stronger 2022–2023 levels. This indicates that earnings have not fully normalized and remain exposed to the steel cycle, limiting the durability of current margins and reducing internal capacity for investment or shareholder returns.

voestalpine AG (VLPNY) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Market Cap: $8.11B
Dividend Yield: 1.87%
Average Volume (3M): 1,297
Price to Earnings (P/E): 13.6
Beta (1Y): 0.99
Revenue Growth: 4.84%
EPS Growth: 348.63%
Country: US
Employees: 48,777
Sector: Basic Materials
Sector Strength: 61
Industry: Steel

voestalpine AG Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

voestalpine AG engages in the production, processing, and distribution of steel products. It operates through the following divisions: Steel, High Performance Metals, Metal Engineering, Metal Forming, and Holding and Group Services. The Steel divisio...

How the Company Makes Money

voestalpine makes money primarily by manufacturing and selling steel, advanced metal products, and metal-based components and systems to industrial customers. Its revenue model is largely business-to-business and is driven by volumes shipped, product...

voestalpine AG Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Feb 10, 2026(Q3-2026)|% Change Since:-10.77%|Next Earnings Date:Nov 10, 2026

Earnings Call SentimentPositive

The call presents a cautiously positive picture: management reported resilient operational results (EBITDA growth, strong cash generation, lower net debt and solid equity ratio), confirmed FY guidance, and highlighted strategic growth initiatives and on-time decarbonization projects. Offsetting this are notable near-term headwinds — revenue decline driven by lower prices, division-level weakness in HPM and Metal Engineering (tariff and import pressures), higher effective tax rate, and timing uncertainty from a pending divestment and delayed project volumes. Overall the company appears financially robust and executing its reorganization and growth plans, but faces cyclical and policy-related risks that temper near-term visibility.

Positive Updates

Solid Group EBITDA and Profitability

Group EBITDA of ~EUR 1.0 billion in the first 9 months (vs. EUR 970 million prior year), an increase of roughly +3.1%. EBIT reported at ~EUR 470 million versus EUR 390 million a year earlier (approx. +20.5%). Management notes all profit-line items were 'in green'.

Negative Updates

Revenue decline and price headwinds

Group revenues were down roughly EUR 600 million year-on-year for the first 9 months. Management attributes ~EUR 450 million of that to lower prices and ~EUR 50 million to a weaker US dollar; volume effects added ~EUR 120 million but were insufficient to offset price declines.

Company Guidance

Management confirmed full‑year EBITDA guidance of EUR 1.40–1.55 billion and reiterated CapEx guidance of EUR 1.1 billion, while expecting positive free cash flow for the full year and a slight positive FCF in Q4; they warned Q4 will include ~EUR 180 million ETS cash payments and around EUR 350 million of additional cash outs to year‑end (ETS + CapEx). For the first 9 months they reported EBITDA of ~EUR 1.0 billion (vs. EUR 970 million LY), cash flow from results of EUR 873 million plus a working‑capital release of EUR 228 million, and a reduction in net debt of roughly EUR 200–300 million (net debt/EBITDA ~1.0x; gearing ~19%; equity ~EUR 7.6 billion, ~50%); management expects stable auto volumes (~12 million cars p.a.), continued strength in rail/aerospace/warehouse, a gradual steel price recovery (safeguards effective from July) and a midterm normalised CapEx run‑rate nearer to ~EUR 1.0 billion p.a. after the decarbonization peak.

voestalpine AG Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Financials show a clear TTM rebound (revenue +61.4% with improved margins) and a healthier balance sheet (low debt-to-equity ~0.26). Offsetting this, profitability is still well below prior cycle highs and free cash flow has weakened year over year (FCF ~442M, -20.7%), with modest FCF conversion (~0.31).

Income Statement

62Positive

Balance Sheet

72Positive

Cash Flow

56Neutral

Financial statement breakdown
Breakdown	TTM	Mar 2026	Mar 2025	Mar 2024	Mar 2023	Mar 2022
Income Statement
Total Revenue	15.22B	15.16B	15.74B	16.68B	18.23B	14.92B
Gross Profit	3.12B	2.93B	2.84B	2.79B	3.64B	3.36B
EBITDA	1.47B	1.44B	1.40B	1.74B	2.63B	2.06B
Net Income	521.50M	427.55M	153.50M	100.80M	1.06B	1.30B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	15.86B	16.35B	15.73B	16.56B	17.09B	17.02B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	981.10M	1.21B	1.09B	1.48B	1.40B	988.40M
Total Debt	2.04B	2.49B	2.69B	3.06B	2.99B	3.19B
Total Liabilities	7.83B	8.54B	8.27B	9.06B	9.32B	9.96B
Stockholders Equity	7.81B	7.59B	7.22B	7.19B	7.45B	6.91B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	442.00M	560.44M	311.90M	366.00M	204.10M	588.90M
Operating Cash Flow	1.44B	1.55B	1.42B	1.45B	956.20M	1.24B
Investing Cash Flow	-432.71M	-804.76M	-1.25B	-853.00M	-47.10M	-629.80M
Financing Cash Flow	-896.61M	-428.25M	-699.50M	-325.30M	-685.90M	-948.30M

voestalpine AG Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis SentimentNegative

Last Price9.22

Price Trends

50DMA10.13Negative

100DMA10.17Negative

200DMA10.06Negative

Market Momentum

MACD-0.23Positive

RSI36.91Neutral

STOCH12.50Positive

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For VLPNY, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 9.22 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 9.68, below the 50-day MA of 10.13, and below the 200-day MA of 10.06, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.23 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 36.91 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 12.50 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for VLPNY.

voestalpine AG Peers Comparison

Overall Rating

UnderperformOutperform

Sector (61)

Financial Indicators

VLPNY against its peers
Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
MT	73Outperform	$44.68B	25.04	3.31%	1.21%	3.25%	-27.63%
TX	73Outperform	$10.36B	14.58	5.77%	4.17%	-0.65%	18.90%
CRS	68Neutral	$14.02B	24.83	26.93%	0.28%	10.21%	38.28%
VLPNY	64Neutral	$8.26B	13.63	6.90%	1.87%	4.84%	348.63%
GGB	63Neutral	$8.52B	15.56	5.06%	3.23%	10.25%	4.20%
Sector *	61Neutral	$10.43B	7.12	-0.05%	2.87%	2.86%	-36.73%
PKX	56Neutral	$15.16B	15.35	2.39%	3.11%	-3.30%	164.60%

* Basic Materials Sector Average

Performance Comparison

VLPNY and its peers over the selected period
Ticker	Company Name	Price	Change	% Change
VLPNY	Voestalpine Ag OTC	9.22	2.19	31.19%
MT	ArcelorMittal	59.81	22.08	58.51%
CRS	Carpenter Technology Corp	283.08	-27.03	-8.72%
GGB	Gerdau	4.66	1.29	38.36%
PKX	Posco	49.67	-5.12	-9.34%
TX	Ternium	52.77	18.70	54.90%

Glossary

BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.

Date of analysis: Aug 10, 2026

voestalpine AG AI Stock Analysis