Commodity Price RiskCommodity prices are the primary near-term risk to estimates with VG guiding to a significant EBITDA sensitivity for every $1/mmbtu change in liquefaction fees.
Earnings GuidanceThe 2025 EBITDA guidance was lower than previous estimates, implying lower margin assumptions and sensitivity to global gas margins.
Market ReactionThe stock experienced a significant drop of 36% following a challenging first release post-IPO, attributed to a 4Q24 miss, soft 2025 guidance, and mixed messaging.