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Victory Capital Holdings
(NASDAQ:VCTR)
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Rating:78Outperform
Price Target:
$127.00
â–²(5.27% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:09/11/26
The score is driven primarily by strong financial performance (high margins and high-quality cash flow) and a very positive earnings call (record results and raised long-term margin guidance). Offsetting these strengths are only moderate valuation (P/E ~20 with a modest ~1.78% yield), mixed near-term technicals (below the 20-day average with neutral RSI), and incremental execution/financing risk from the announced First Eagle acquisition.
Positive Factors
Strong client-asset growth and organic flows
Rising client assets and positive net flows directly expand the fee-generating base of Victory’s business. Broad demand across solutions, fixed income, equities and ETFs supports durable distribution strength and reduces reliance on any single investment product or channel.
Negative Factors
First Eagle acquisition adds leverage and execution complexity
The First Eagle transaction could materially increase scale, but sizable new borrowing raises financial obligations and reduces flexibility if integration takes longer than expected. Regulatory approvals, shareholder authorization, client consents and complex preferred equity also create several execution dependencies.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Strong client-asset growth and organic flows
Rising client assets and positive net flows directly expand the fee-generating base of Victory’s business. Broad demand across solutions, fixed income, equities and ETFs supports durable distribution strength and reduces reliance on any single investment product or channel.
Read all positive factors
Victory Capital Holdings Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Revenue by Segment
Breaks down where Victory Capital earns its revenue—management fees, performance fees, advisory or distribution—and shows which businesses drive growth and profitability. Reveals how dependent results are on AUM and market returns versus recurring or higher-margin businesses, highlighting where fee pressure or client outflows could hurt earnings and where strategic shifts could boost margins.
Breaks down where Victory Capital earns its revenue—management fees, performance fees, advisory or distribution—and shows which businesses drive growth and profitability. Reveals how dependent results are on AUM and market returns versus recurring or higher-margin businesses, highlighting where fee pressure or client outflows could hurt earnings and where strategic shifts could boost margins.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyVictory Capital Holdings (VCTR) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$6.49B
Dividend Yield1.91%
Average Volume (3M)646.76K
Price to Earnings (P/E)18.9
Beta (1Y)1.22
Revenue Growth50.24%
EPS Growth33.56%
CountryUS
Employees699
SectorFinancial
Sector Strength70
IndustryAsset Management
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)5.49
Shares Outstanding61,509,570
10 Day Avg. Volume635,132
30 Day Avg. Volume646,765
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-2.01
Price to Book (P/B)1.70
Price to Sales (P/S)3.16
P/FCF Ratio17.43
Enterprise Value/Market Cap<0.01
Enterprise Value/Revenue<0.01
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit<0.01
Enterprise Value/Ebitda<0.01
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$107.80Price Target Upside-10.64% Downside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering7
EPS Forecast (FY)7.95
Revenue Forecast (FY)$1.64B
Victory Capital Holdings Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Victory Capital Holdings, Inc. operates as a global asset management enterprise, along with its various subsidiaries. The firm provides an extensive suite of services, encompassing investment advisory, fund administration, compliance, transfer age...
How the Company Makes Money
Victory Capital primarily makes money by charging fees for managing client assets. Its core revenue stream is investment advisory (management) fees that are typically calculated as a percentage of assets under management (AUM); as AUM rises or fal...
Victory Capital Holdings Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Aug 05, 2026
(Q2-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Oct 29, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call communicated a strongly positive operational and financial quarter with multiple records (AUM, revenue, adjusted EBITDA, EPS) and clear evidence of sustained organic flow momentum, ETF growth, strong investment performance, and full realization of acquisition synergies. Management increased long-term margin guidance and emphasized a large international footprint via the Amundi partnership and a sizeable won-but-not-funded pipeline. Minor cautions include episodic revenue items that can cause quarterly variability, limited quantification of the won-but-not-funded pipeline, modest scale to date in distributing Amundi products in the U.S., and a relatively low cash balance on the balance sheet. Overall the positives substantially outweigh these manageable items.Positive Updates
Record Quarter Across Key Financial Metrics
Q2 2026 revenue $435.4M (+12% QoQ, +24% YoY); adjusted EBITDA $242.7M with margin 55.8% (record); adjusted net income with tax benefit $182.9M or $2.21 per diluted share (+21% QoQ, +41% YoY).
Negative Updates
Episodic Nature of Certain Revenue Components
Certain annual fees recorded in Q2 are episodic (not traditional performance fees) and can cause quarter-to-quarter variability in the investment management fee line; management reiterates long-term fee-rate guidance of 46–47 bps.
Read all updates
Q2-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Record Quarter Across Key Financial Metrics
Q2 2026 revenue $435.4M (+12% QoQ, +24% YoY); adjusted EBITDA $242.7M with margin 55.8% (record); adjusted net income with tax benefit $182.9M or $2.21 per diluted share (+21% QoQ, +41% YoY).
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Victory updated its long‑term guidance and capital priorities: long‑term adjusted EBITDA margin guidance was raised to 50% (from 49%), it expects a normalized investment management fee rate of 46–47 bps (Q2 was 47.9 bps), and cash compensation is expected to run in the low‑to‑mid‑20% of revenue while more than two‑thirds of operating expenses remain variable; strategic acquisitions remain the primary use of capital but the firm will be opportunistic on buybacks (Q2 repurchases 1.1M shares; YTD 3.2M) and shareholder returns (Q2 cash returned $138M; dividend declared $0.50/sh), with a current net leverage of 1.0x adjusted EBITDA, $70M of cash, an undrawn $100M revolver, ~$2.5M in annual interest savings from Term Loan repricing, and the full $110M of Pioneer net run‑rate expense synergies now realized.Victory Capital Holdings Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
84
Very Positive
Balance Sheet
74
Positive
Cash Flow
88
Very Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 1.56B | 1.31B | 893.48M | 821.03M | 854.80M | 890.26M |
| Gross Profit | 1.11B | 928.44M | 529.77M | 455.97M | 455.50M | 479.05M |
| EBITDA | 745.23M | 565.96M | 481.37M | 394.32M | 440.14M | 391.80M |
| Net Income | 460.90M | 330.06M | 288.86M | 213.16M | 275.51M | 278.39M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 4.18B | 4.25B | 2.55B | 2.54B | 2.54B | 2.58B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 70.13M | 163.69M | 126.73M | 123.55M | 38.17M | 69.53M |
| Total Debt | 1.01B | 970.01M | 963.86M | 989.27M | 985.51M | 1.13B |
| Total Liabilities | 1.80B | 1.82B | 1.43B | 1.49B | 1.48B | 1.65B |
| Stockholders Equity | 2.38B | 2.42B | 1.12B | 1.05B | 1.07B | 929.93M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 563.22M | 236.85M | 338.70M | 325.12M | 329.97M | 363.52M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 566.99M | 240.41M | 339.98M | 330.29M | 335.21M | 376.20M |
| Investing Cash Flow | 12.03M | 77.66M | -3.98M | -7.84M | -6.32M | -556.59M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -616.58M | -329.45M | -332.76M | -237.13M | -360.19M | 227.22M |
Victory Capital Holdings Technical Analysis
Neutral
120.64
Price Trends
106.46
Negative
95.18
Positive
81.18
Positive
Market Momentum
-0.20
Positive
35.71
Neutral
15.82
Positive
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For VCTR, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 120.64 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 113.14, above the 50-day MA of 106.46, and above the 200-day MA of 81.18, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.20 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 35.71 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 15.82 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for VCTR.
Victory Capital Holdings Risk Analysis
Victory Capital Holdings disclosed 51 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Victory Capital Holdings reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Victory Capital Holdings Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (68)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
86 Outperform | $3.36B | 10.50 | 25.41% | 9.77% | ― | 0.94% | |
83 Outperform | $4.35B | 10.42 | 34.06% | 2.54% | 15.25% | 19.43% | |
80 Outperform | $9.00B | 11.00 | 26.95% | 0.01% | 11.74% | 108.91% | |
78 Outperform | $6.49B | 18.89 | 19.29% | 1.91% | 50.24% | 33.56% | |
78 Outperform | $3.72B | 21.97 | 29.72% | 3.66% | 12.59% | 2.98% | |
78 Outperform | $2.98B | 8.57 | 70.99% | 11.09% | 7.40% | 9.66% | |
68 Neutral | $18.00B | 11.42 | 9.92% | 3.81% | 9.73% | 1.22% |
* Financial Sector Average
VCTR
Victory Capital Holdings
103.72
38.13
58.12%
AMG
Affiliated Managers
342.82
104.57
43.89%
AB
AllianceBernstein
35.50
0.50
1.44%
CNS
Cohen & Steers
71.85
5.00
7.48%
FHI
Federated Hermes
56.69
5.51
10.77%
APAM
Artisan Partners
36.33
-4.62
-11.28%
Victory Capital Holdings Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Victory Capital Reports Record Growth in Client Assets
Positive
Sep 11, 2026
On September 11, 2026, Victory Capital reported total assets under management of $356.5 billion and other assets of $3.7 billion, bringing total client assets to $360.2 billion as of August 31, 2026. Average total AUM for August stood at $353.2 bi...
Business Operations and StrategyM&A TransactionsPrivate Placements and Financing
Victory Capital announces major acquisition and equity financing
Positive
Aug 31, 2026
On August 25, 2026, Victory Capital Holdings agreed to acquire investment manager First Eagle in a cash-and-stock transaction featuring new non-voting preferred shares, with the purchase price subject to customary financial adjustments and stringe...
Business Operations and StrategyM&A Transactions
Victory Capital to Acquire First Eagle Investments
Positive
Aug 26, 2026
On August 26, 2026, Victory Capital announced a definitive agreement to acquire 100% of First Eagle Investments from Genstar Capital and First Eagle employees for approximately $7.0 billion in cash and stock, plus assumed debt. First Eagle, an ind...
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Victory Capital Highlights Growing, Stable Client Asset Base
Positive
Aug 12, 2026
On August 12, 2026, Victory Capital reported that total assets under management reached $345.1 billion and other assets $3.7 billion, bringing total client assets to $348.8 billion as of July 31, 2026. Average total client assets for July were $34...
Executive/Board Changes
Victory Capital appoints Nicolas Calcoen to board
Positive
Jul 23, 2026
On July 22, 2026, Victory Capital director Dominique Carrel-Billiard notified the board of his intent to resign effective July 23, 2026, following his departure from Amundi, with the company noting the move did not stem from any disagreement over ...
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Victory Capital Reports Record Second-Quarter Asset Growth
Positive
Jul 13, 2026
On June 13, 2026, Victory Capital Holdings Inc. reported that its total assets under management reached $342.4 billion and total client assets stood at $346.1 billion as of June 30, 2026. The firm’s asset mix showed strength in solutions, fi...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.