Virginia National Bankshares (VABK) AI Stock Analysis

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Virginia National Bankshares

(NASDAQ:VABK)

Select Model

Rating:77Outperform

Price Target:$61.00▲(15.53% Upside)

Action:reiterated

Date:10/09/26

The score is driven primarily by strong financial performance (solid profitability and conservative leverage) and supportive valuation (low P/E with a ~3% dividend yield). Technicals add a moderate tailwind with price above key moving averages and neutral-to-positive momentum. Positive corporate actions (buyback authorization and dividend) further support the outlook, while cash flow softness and historical earnings volatility temper the score.

Positive Factors

Strong profitability and renewed growthHigh profitability and renewed revenue growth indicate that the community banking model is generating meaningful earnings while expanding. If maintained, this combination can support internal capital formation, strengthen competitive positioning, and provide resources for continued lending and service investment.

Negative Factors

Declining free cash flowThe recent decline in free cash flow weakens the cash conversion trend even though reported earnings strengthened. If sustained, lower cash generation could reduce the flexibility available for lending growth, shareholder distributions, and other capital allocation priorities over the coming quarters.

Virginia National Bankshares (VABK) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Market Cap: $288.64M
Dividend Yield: 2.73%
Average Volume (3M): 10.87K
Price to Earnings (P/E): 10.7
Beta (1Y): 0.62
Revenue Growth: 7.74%
EPS Growth: 49.05%
Country: US
Employees: 144
Sector: Financial
Sector Strength: 68
Industry: Banks - Regional

Virginia National Bankshares Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Virginia National Bankshares Corporation operates as the parent entity for Virginia National Bank, delivering a comprehensive suite of commercial banking solutions. Its operations are structured into four distinct divisions: the primary banking segme...

Virginia National Bankshares Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Overall fundamentals are solid: strong profitability for a regional bank (TTM net margin ~28%) and improving operating profitability with revenue growth re-accelerating (~6% TTM). Balance sheet leverage is conservative (TTM debt-to-equity ~0.15) with healthy ROE (~13%). Offsetting factors include historical volatility in margins/growth across years and a recent decline in free cash flow (about -11% TTM) despite stronger earnings.

Income Statement

78Positive

Balance Sheet

82Very Positive

Cash Flow

71Positive

Financial statement breakdown
Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	88.02M	83.34M	82.61M	79.09M	69.99M	58.74M
Gross Profit	63.43M	57.47M	53.66M	57.34M	66.70M	54.44M
EBITDA	34.52M	28.07M	25.16M	28.04M	33.63M	16.32M
Net Income	24.80M	19.26M	16.97M	19.26M	23.44M	10.07M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	1.64B	1.65B	1.62B	1.65B	1.62B	1.97B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	35.70M	60.06M	280.64M	448.99M	578.28M	660.19M
Total Debt	29.05M	29.75M	29.13M	79.92M	9.59M	10.47M
Total Liabilities	1.44B	1.47B	1.46B	1.49B	1.49B	1.81B
Stockholders Equity	194.69M	184.16M	160.30M	153.04M	133.42M	161.99M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	23.17M	20.75M	14.56M	12.73M	22.14M	11.77M
Operating Cash Flow	23.25M	21.33M	15.29M	13.90M	22.68M	13.06M
Investing Cash Flow	44.19M	31.80M	15.75M	-19.77M	-167.20M	262.19M
Financing Cash Flow	-28.62M	381.00K	-42.33M	-5.88M	-324.19M	198.89M

Virginia National Bankshares Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis SentimentPositive

Last Price52.80

Price Trends

50DMA48.89Positive

100DMA47.18Positive

200DMA43.79Positive

Market Momentum

MACD1.15Negative

RSI61.41Neutral

STOCH74.50Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For VABK, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 52.80 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 50.71, above the 50-day MA of 48.89, and above the 200-day MA of 43.79, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 1.15 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 61.41 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 74.50 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for VABK.

Virginia National Bankshares Risk Analysis

Virginia National Bankshares disclosed 36 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Virginia National Bankshares reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.

Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy

Latest Risks Added

0 New Risks

Virginia National Bankshares Peers Comparison

Overall Rating

UnderperformOutperform

Sector (68)

Financial Indicators

VABK against its peers
Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
VABK	77Outperform	$288.64M	10.69	14.18%	2.73%	7.74%	49.05%
EFSI	75Outperform	$245.44M	13.85	9.27%	2.71%	17.02%	47.37%
LCNB	75Outperform	$278.40M	11.13	8.95%	4.49%	-1.78%	5.15%
FXNC	71Outperform	$274.89M	11.93	12.06%	2.24%	0.88%	103.52%
FRAF	70Outperform	$313.04M	11.14	15.56%	1.95%	7.25%	76.47%
Sector *	68Neutral	$18.00B	11.42	9.92%	3.81%	9.73%	1.22%
OPBK	65Neutral	$220.55M	7.31	12.79%	3.66%	7.57%	28.18%

* Financial Sector Average

Performance Comparison

VABK and its peers over the selected period
Ticker	Company Name	Price	Change	% Change
VABK	Virginia National Bankshares Corporation	52.80	14.34	37.27%
LCNB	Lcnb Corporation	19.59	4.82	32.63%
OPBK	Op Bancorp	14.76	1.98	15.48%
FXNC	First National Corp	30.42	7.93	35.23%
FRAF	Franklin Financial Services	69.08	23.02	49.98%
EFSI	Eagle Financial Services	45.71	10.87	31.20%

Virginia National Bankshares Corporate Events

Business Operations and StrategyStock Buyback

Virginia National Bankshares Launches New Share Repurchase Program

Positive

Oct 8, 2026

On October 6, 2026, Virginia National Bankshares Corporation announced a new share repurchase plan authorizing buybacks of up to $18.7 million of its common stock through October 5, 2027, signaling confidence in its capital position and long-term val...

Glossary

BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.

Date of analysis: Oct 08, 2026

Virginia National Bankshares AI Stock Analysis