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USA Rare Earth
(NASDAQ:USAR)
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Rating:47Neutral
Price Target:
$15.50
▼(-20.14% Downside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:09/06/26
The score is held down primarily by very weak financial performance (extreme losses, minimal gross margin, and heavy negative free cash flow) and only modest technical momentum. Offsetting this, the latest earnings call highlighted meaningful strategic progress and strong liquidity to fund the buildout, but execution and commercialization risks remain high. Valuation is also constrained by negative earnings and no dividend yield support in the provided data.
Positive Factors
Integrated rare-earth platform
The completed Serra Verde merger strengthens USAR’s strategic position by linking a rare-earth production source with processing and magnet capabilities. A broader mine-to-magnet platform can improve control over feedstock, support customer supply security, and create more opportunities to capture value across the chain.
Negative Factors
Severe losses and cash burn
USAR’s current financial profile is not self-funding: very large losses and sustained negative operating and free cash flow require continued reliance on its cash balance or external capital. Until production and margins scale, this weak earnings base can constrain financial flexibility and increase funding risk.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Integrated rare-earth platform
The completed Serra Verde merger strengthens USAR’s strategic position by linking a rare-earth production source with processing and magnet capabilities. A broader mine-to-magnet platform can improve control over feedstock, support customer supply security, and create more opportunities to capture value across the chain.
Read all positive factors
USA Rare Earth (USAR) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$6.02B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)12.45M
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)-0.15
Revenue GrowthN/A
EPS Growth-270.60%
CountryUS
Employees132
SectorBasic Materials
Sector Strength58
IndustryIndustrial Materials
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)-2.40
Shares Outstanding375,076,570
10 Day Avg. Volume11,002,387
30 Day Avg. Volume12,451,564
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio>-0.01
Price to Book (P/B)2.37
Price to Sales (P/S)709.95
P/FCF Ratio-13.51
Enterprise Value/Market Cap<0.01
Enterprise Value/Revenue<0.01
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit>-0.01
Enterprise Value/Ebitda>-0.01
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$35.50Price Target Upside82.90% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering7
EPS Forecast (FY)-0.54
Revenue Forecast (FY)$68.77M
USA Rare Earth Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
USA Rare Earth Inc. specializes in the production of magnets. The company is actively developing an integrated facility that will manage the entire lifecycle of NdFeB magnet creation, from mineral sourcing and extraction to processing and final ma...
How the Company Makes Money
USAR’s intended revenue model is based on selling rare earth products and related materials into industrial supply chains, but specific, verified details on current revenue, pricing, customers, or signed offtake contracts are not available in the ...
USA Rare Earth Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Aug 10, 2026
(Q2-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Nov 05, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call emphasized rapid, tangible progress toward building an integrated rare-earth supply chain outside China — including acquisitions (Serra Verde intent, TMRC closed), investments (Carester), commissioning of facilities (Wheat Ridge hydromet, LCM Yttrium production), a sizable commercial pipeline (100+ prospects, MOUs/LOIs for 2,500 t) and a strong cash position (~$1.5B). These strategic and operational milestones materially de-risk the long-term plan and present pricing and market-share opportunities given sharp Western price increases (dysprosium +90% YTD; Yttrium +60% since March). Offsetting these positives are near-term margin pressure from raw material shortages, significant operating losses and capex spend (Q2 operating expense ~$45M, capex $66M), milestone/timing risk for government reimbursements, and uncertainty around customer qualification timelines. On balance, the call presented more substantial progress and opportunity than setbacks, though execution risks remain in the near term.Positive Updates
Strategic Acquisitions and Investments
Announced intent to acquire Serra Verde (scaled operating source of light and heavy magnetic rare earths), investment in Carester (heavy rare earth processing capability and IP), closed acquisition of TMRC to consolidate Round Top ownership, and selected Blacksburg, SC for a second U.S. magnet and metals facility (groundbroken and long-lead equipment ordered).
Negative Updates
Gross Margin and Raw Material Cost Pressure
Gross margins were negatively impacted by higher raw material input costs driven by industry-wide supply challenges, particularly acute in heavy rare earths; management is actively engaging alternative supply sources until Serra Verde and Carester feedstock access comes online.
Read all updates
Q2-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Strategic Acquisitions and Investments
Announced intent to acquire Serra Verde (scaled operating source of light and heavy magnetic rare earths), investment in Carester (heavy rare earth processing capability and IP), closed acquisition of TMRC to consolidate Round Top ownership, and selected Blacksburg, SC for a second U.S. magnet and metals facility (groundbroken and long-lead equipment ordered).
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management's guidance and targets were detailed and metric‑heavy: Q2 revenues were about $6.0M, operating expenses ~$45M, GAAP net loss $10.3M (‑$0.05/sh) including a ~$22.4M non‑cash fair‑value adjustment and an adjusted net loss of $33.5M (‑$0.15/sh); cash and cash equivalents were ~$1.5B and Q2 capex was $66M; they signed milestone‑based Department of Commerce reimbursement agreements and expect to apply for the first reimbursement in the coming months. Operational targets include first magnet sales by year‑end, Stillwater run‑rate capacity of 600 metric tons by YE‑2026 and 1,200 mt in Q1‑2027 (ultimately 3,600 mt magnet / 5,000 mt metal capacity at Stillwater), Blacksburg to start operations early 2028 with shell complete end‑2027 and ultimate Blacksburg capacity of 6,400 mt magnets / 5,000 mt metals, and a U.S. target of 10,000 mt of metal/alloy and magnet capacity by 2029. Round Top remains on track for a year‑end DFS and S‑K 1300 filing in early 2027, with >10,000 ft drilled so far, heavy‑rare distribution >70% and commercial operations targeted in late 2028; the Serra Verde shareholder vote is Aug 28 with close shortly after and Serra Verde expected to scale to ~6,400 mt trio run‑rate by end‑2027. Recycling (swarf) could supply ~20–30% of finished‑magnet feedstock, Stillwater headcount is 140 targeting 200 by year‑end, and market context noted dysprosium oxide Western prices up >90% in 2026 to nearly $2,000/kg (~9x China) and yttrium oxide +60% since March (>200x China).USA Rare Earth Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
14
Very Negative
Balance Sheet
28
Negative
Cash Flow
12
Very Negative
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 13.16M | 1.64M | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 968.87M |
| Gross Profit | -7.12M | -1.39M | -389.00K | 0.00 | -210.00K | 811.75M |
| EBITDA | -119.14M | -57.92M | -15.20M | -985.21K | -23.59M | 743.92M |
| Net Income | -284.21M | -297.56M | -15.73M | 6.75M | -23.84M | 331.62M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 3.00B | 695.00M | 69.07M | 259.47M | 66.86M | 5.54B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 1.59B | 359.93M | 16.76M | 275.67K | 26.97M | 0.00 |
| Total Debt | 13.54M | 3.05M | 854.00K | 1.09M | 902.00K | 3.12B |
| Total Liabilities | 453.37M | 200.71M | 36.30M | 13.41M | 34.81M | 3.26B |
| Stockholders Equity | 2.54B | 492.63M | 30.13M | 246.06M | 27.48M | 2.29B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | -245.52M | -86.34M | -16.10M | -27.88M | -19.91M | 476.93M |
| Operating Cash Flow | -106.07M | -48.98M | -12.99M | -21.93M | -14.80M | 709.75M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -241.66M | -139.57M | -3.29M | -5.96M | -15.15M | -233.24M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 1.82B | 531.72M | 19.84M | 14.11M | 22.26M | -477.15M |
USA Rare Earth Technical Analysis
Negative
19.41
Price Trends
17.42
Negative
20.84
Negative
19.28
Negative
Market Momentum
-0.25
Positive
39.65
Neutral
8.11
Positive
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For USAR, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 19.41 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 18.19, above the 50-day MA of 17.42, and above the 200-day MA of 19.28, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.25 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 39.65 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 8.11 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for USAR.
USA Rare Earth Risk Analysis
USA Rare Earth disclosed 56 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. USA Rare Earth reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
USA Rare Earth Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
68 Neutral | $5.24B | 59.33 | 9.41% | 0.22% | 21.56% | 454.16% | |
61 Neutral | $10.43B | 7.12 | -0.05% | 2.87% | 2.86% | -36.73% | |
54 Neutral | $9.14B | -147.78 | -2.66% | ― | 71.92% | 44.39% | |
47 Neutral | $6.02B | -6.48 | -23.45% | ― | ― | -270.60% | |
46 Neutral | $740.63M | -11.04 | -35.30% | ― | ― | -48.46% | |
45 Neutral | $554.69M | -5.30 | -21.43% | ― | ― | -265.11% |
* Basic Materials Sector Average
USAR
USA Rare Earth
15.56
1.50
10.67%
MTRN
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257.51
146.59
132.16%
NB
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3.81
-1.48
-27.94%
MP
MP Materials
50.51
-13.00
-20.47%
CRML
Critical Metals Corp
6.43
0.21
3.38%
IPX
Iperionx Ltd. ADR
18.67
-25.92
-58.12%
USA Rare Earth Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board ChangesM&A TransactionsPrivate Placements and Financing
USA Rare Earth Completes Strategic Merger with Serra Verde
Positive
Sep 4, 2026
On September 3, 2026, USA Rare Earth closed its merger with SVRE Holdings, the Serra Verde Group, folding the Brazilian heavy rare earth producer into a wholly owned subsidiary and paying $300 million in cash plus 126,849,307 USAR shares to Serra ...
Business Operations and StrategyM&A TransactionsShareholder Meetings
USA Rare Earth Shareholders Approve Merger-Related Share Issuance
Positive
Aug 31, 2026
On August 28, 2026, USA Rare Earth, Inc. held a special meeting of stockholders to vote on approving the issuance of 126,849,307 new common shares in connection with a planned merger involving Middlebury Merger Sub, Ltd., SVRE Holdings Ltd., and S...
Business Operations and StrategyM&A TransactionsPrivate Placements and FinancingShareholder Meetings
USA Rare Earth secures $1.55 billion strategic funding
Positive
Aug 24, 2026
Following capitalization of a U.S. government-backed special purpose vehicle on August 24, 2026, USA Rare Earth secured an upsized $1.55 billion funding package to support an offtake agreement for 100 percent of Phase 1 production from Serra Verde...
Business Operations and StrategyM&A TransactionsRegulatory Filings and Compliance
USA Rare Earth Completes Merger With Texas Mineral Resources
Positive
Aug 7, 2026
On August 7, 2026, USA Rare Earth, Inc. completed a previously announced two-step merger with Texas Mineral Resources Corp., using two wholly owned merger subsidiaries to consolidate TMRC under USAR’s control. The transaction positions TMRC ...
Business Operations and StrategyM&A Transactions
USA Rare Earth takes strategic stake in Carester
Positive
Jul 23, 2026
USA Rare Earth said on July 23, 2026 that it had signed definitive agreements to acquire a strategic minority stake of about 13.6% in French rare earth processor Carester, alongside a similar investment by InfraVia’s Critical Metals Fund. Th...
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board ChangesM&A Transactions
USA Rare Earth Announces CEO Transition and Integration Focus
Positive
Jul 20, 2026
On July 20, 2026, USA Rare Earth announced a leadership transition in which Chief Executive Officer and Board Director Barbara Humpton will retire on October 1, 2026, with Serra Verde Group CEO Thras Moraitis becoming CEO of USA Rare Earth on the ...
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial DisclosuresM&A TransactionsPrivate Placements and FinancingRegulatory Filings and Compliance
USA Rare Earth Amends SVRE Merger, Updates Financing
Neutral
Jul 17, 2026
On July 16, 2026, USA Rare Earth, Inc. amended its merger agreement with SVRE Holdings Ltd., tying completion of the deal to the continued effectiveness of an April 20, 2026 offtake agreement for long‑term supply of rare earth materials and ...
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial DisclosuresM&A TransactionsPrivate Placements and FinancingRegulatory Filings and Compliance
USA Rare Earth updates merger terms and financing plans
Positive
Jun 15, 2026
On June 15, 2026, USA Rare Earth filed an amended preliminary proxy statement with the SEC that includes updated unaudited pro forma condensed combined financial statements reflecting its planned merger with Serra Verde Group’s parent SVRE, ...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.