Upland Software (UPLD) AI Stock Analysis

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Upland Software

(NASDAQ:UPLD)

Rating:47Neutral

Price Target:

$2.50

▲(15.74%Upside)

Upland Software's overall stock score is driven by its challenging financial performance and valuation concerns. Despite some positive highlights from the recent earnings call, such as improved EBITDA margins and debt reduction, the company's declining revenue and profitability issues weigh heavily on its stock score. Technical indicators point to bearish sentiment, and the high beta implies significant market volatility. Investors should be cautious and monitor the company's strategic execution and market conditions.

Positive Factors

Financial Performance

Upland reported better-than-expected upside to revenue and EPS as the company continues to streamline the business.

Growth Prospects

Contract size continues to increase, indicating potential for larger future revenue.

Strategic Initiatives

Steady execution and a more compelling picture emerging post mobile messaging divestiture.

Negative Factors

Revenue Decline

Revenue declines are expected to extend into future years on divestitures and sunset revenue.

Revenue Impact

Upland divested another product line, Mobile Messaging, which was guided to negatively impact revenue by $25mm.

Upland Software (UPLD) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Market Cap

$61.53M

Dividend YieldN/A

Average Volume (3M)86.34K

Price to Earnings (P/E)―

Beta (1Y)2.38

Revenue Growth-8.17%

EPS Growth63.63%

CountryUS

Employees998

SectorTechnology

Sector Strength80

IndustrySoftware - Application

Share Statistics

EPS (TTM)0.23

Shares Outstanding28,484,280

10 Day Avg. Volume78,258

30 Day Avg. Volume86,345

Financial Highlights & Ratios

PEG Ratio-0.08

Price to Book (P/B)-4.55

Price to Sales (P/S)0.00

P/FCF Ratio3.55

Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A

Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A

Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A

Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A

Forecast

1Y Price Target

$5.00

Price Target Upside131.48% Upside

Rating ConsensusModerate Buy

Number of Analyst Covering3

Upland Software Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionUpland Software, Inc. is a provider of cloud-based enterprise work management software. Headquartered in Austin, Texas, the company offers a comprehensive suite of solutions designed to help organizations streamline their operations and enhance productivity. Upland Software's products cover various sectors, including project management, IT management, marketing, and customer experience management, catering to a wide range of industries.

How the Company Makes MoneyUpland Software generates revenue primarily through a subscription-based model, offering its software solutions as a service (SaaS) to businesses. Customers pay recurring fees to access Upland's suite of enterprise work management tools, which entails ongoing updates and customer support. Additionally, the company may earn revenue through professional services such as consulting, training, and implementation support, which help clients effectively integrate and utilize its software solutions. Upland's revenue is further bolstered by strategic partnerships and acquisitions that expand its product offerings and customer base, allowing it to enhance its market presence and drive growth.

Upland Software Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:May 12, 2025

(Q1-2025)

% Change Since: -8.86%|

Next Earnings Date:Jul 30, 2025

Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral

The earnings call reflects a mixed performance, with strong financial metrics such as exceeding revenue and EBITDA expectations and successful debt reduction. However, challenges include flat core organic growth in Q1 and a projected revenue decline. The company's strategic focus on high-margin products and AI innovation is promising, but execution will be key moving forward.

Q1-2025 Updates

Positive Updates

Revenue and Adjusted EBITDA Beat Expectations

Q1 revenue and adjusted EBITDA exceeded guidance midpoints, with adjusted EBITDA reaching $13.1 million and a 21% margin, up from 20% in 2024.

Free Cash Flow Exceeds Expectations

Q1 free cash flow was $7.9 million, higher than expected.

New Customer Wins and Expansions

Upland welcomed 107 new customers, including 19 major ones, and expanded relationships with 245 existing customers, 26 of which were major expansions.

AI-Enabled Product Recognition

Upland earned 76 badges in G2’s Spring 2025 report across its solutions, with notable recognition for AI-enabled products like Upland BA Insight and Upland InterFAX.

Improved Debt Position

Upland paid down $34.2 million of debt in Q1 2025, in addition to $189 million in 2024, reducing net leverage to an expected 3.7x by year-end.

Adjusted EBITDA Margin Growth

Adjusted EBITDA margin expected to expand to 26% in Q2 and 27% for the full year 2025, compared to 20% in 2024.

Negative Updates

Flat Core Organic Growth in Q1

Core organic growth rate was flat in Q1, although it is expected to move to 2% in Q2.

Revenue Decline Due to Divestitures

Divestiture of mobile messaging product lines lowered 2025 revenue guidance midpoint by $25 million.

Projected Revenue Decline

For the full year 2025, a report total revenue decline of 20% at the midpoint from 2024 is expected.

Termination of Chief Sales Officer

The company terminated its Chief Sales Officer in April, leading to changes in go-to-market strategy.

Company Guidance

During Upland Software's Q1 2025 earnings call, the company reported beating both revenue and adjusted EBITDA guidance midpoints, with Q1 adjusted EBITDA at $13.1 million and a margin of 21%. Despite a flat core organic growth rate in Q1, the company anticipates a 2% increase in Q2 and further growth throughout 2025. The call highlighted a significant expansion in adjusted EBITDA margins to 26% projected for Q2 and further increases expected in the second half of the year. Free cash flow was reported at $7.9 million, surpassing expectations. The company welcomed 107 new customers, including 19 major ones, and expanded relationships with 245 existing customers. Upland also completed divestitures, reducing its 2025 revenue guidance by $25 million but maintaining adjusted EBITDA guidance. The company emphasized its focus on high-margin, high-growth markets, projecting a full-year adjusted EBITDA margin of 27% and a decline in total revenue of 20% from 2024.

Upland Software Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Upland Software is facing financial challenges with declining revenues, persistent losses, and negative equity. These factors indicate potential risks to financial stability. While the company shows strength in gross profit margins and cash management, the overall financial health is concerning due to high leverage and negative profitability metrics. Strategic measures are needed to address these financial strains to ensure long-term viability.

Income Statement

Neutral

Upland Software has faced a decline in revenue over the past years, with a notable decrease from $317.3 million in 2022 to $274.8 million in 2024. Gross profit margin stands at 70.5% for 2024, indicating cost efficiency in production. However, the company struggles with profitability, reflected by negative EBIT and net income margins, with a net loss of $118.3 million in 2024. This trend shows financial strain and challenges in managing expenses relative to revenue.

Balance Sheet

Negative

The balance sheet reveals a worrying situation with negative stockholders' equity of -$18.3 million in 2024, indicating liabilities exceeding assets. The debt-to-equity ratio cannot be calculated due to negative equity, which signals high financial leverage. The equity ratio is also negative, further highlighting potential solvency issues. These factors suggest significant financial risk and instability.

Cash Flow

Neutral

Cash flow analysis shows a positive trend in free cash flow generation, with $23.4 million in 2024, although operating cash flow has decreased from $49.9 million in 2023 to $24.2 million in 2024. The free cash flow to net income ratio is positive, indicating effective cash management despite losses. However, the decrease in operating cash flow suggests declining cash-generating capacity, which could impact future operations.

Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Breakdown
Income Statement		Total Revenue
274.79M	297.85M	317.30M	302.02M	291.78M
	Gross Profit
193.70M	201.49M	213.56M	202.56M	193.33M
	EBIT
-102.30M	-163.92M	-6.95M	-13.70M	3.15M
	EBITDA
-46.17M	-96.99M	15.14M	18.00M	22.04M
	Net Income Common Stockholders
-118.32M	-179.87M	-68.41M	-58.21M	-51.22M
Balance Sheet		Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
56.43M	236.56M	248.65M	189.16M	250.03M
	Total Assets
529.52M	870.02M	1.11B	1.03B	1.01B
	Total Debt
291.96M	480.62M	523.13M	528.65M	533.30M
	Net Debt
235.53M	244.06M	274.48M	339.49M	283.28M
	Total Liabilities
424.60M	626.09M	692.30M	712.72M	704.61M
	Stockholders Equity
-18.30M	243.93M	421.16M	316.29M	306.62M
Cash Flow		Free Cash Flow
23.36M	48.72M	29.11M	40.62M	34.30M
	Operating Cash Flow
24.24M	49.94M	29.98M	41.74M	35.62M
	Investing Cash Flow
-882.00K	-1.22M	-63.22M	-93.53M	-68.97M
	Financing Cash Flow
-202.31M	-61.38M	94.15M	-8.18M	107.90M

Upland Software Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment

Negative

Last Price2.16

Price Trends

50DMA

2.55

Negative

100DMA

3.20

Negative

200DMA

3.07

Negative

Market Momentum

MACD

-0.10

Positive

RSI

35.79

Neutral

STOCH

8.29

Positive

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For UPLD, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 2.16 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 2.43, below the 50-day MA of 2.55, and below the 200-day MA of 3.07, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.10 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 35.79 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 8.29 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for UPLD.

Upland Software Risk Analysis

Upland Software disclosed 47 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Upland Software reported the most risks in the “Finance & Corporate” category.

Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy

Latest Risks Added 2 New Risks

We continually assess the strategic fit of our existing businesses and may sunset and/or divest of certain underperforming or non-strategic assets that are deemed not to fit with our strategic plan or are not achieving the desired return on investment, and we cannot be certain that our business, operating results and financial condition will not be materially and adversely affected. Q4, 2024

Our business strategy includes plans for organic growth, and our financial condition and results of operations could be adversely affected if we fail to grow or fail to manage our growth effectively. Q4, 2024

Upland Software Peers Comparison

Overall Rating

UnderperformOutperform

Sector (61)

Financial Indicators

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
Sector *	61 Neutral	$11.50B	10.46	-6.94%	2.92%	7.57%	-9.01%
RSSS	59 Neutral	$89.59M	―	-30.88%	―	18.51%	-714.65%
PSQH	58 Neutral	$97.91M	―	-223.65%	―	221.24%	13.36%
DUOT	53 Neutral	$89.15M	―	-189.13%	―	89.27%	26.30%
UPLD	47 Neutral	$61.53M	―	-208.78%	―	-8.17%	63.63%
LPSN	47 Neutral	$67.86M	―	-137.76%	―	-23.04%	11.60%

* Technology Sector Average

Performance Comparison

UPLD

Upland Software

2.16

-0.59

-21.45%

LPSN

Liveperson

0.72

0.10

16.13%

DUOT

Duos Technologies Group

7.65

5.35

232.61%

RSSS

Research Solutions

2.76

0.15

5.75%

PSQH

PSQ Holdings

2.15

-1.23

-36.39%

Upland Software Corporate Events

Executive/Board Changes

Upland Software Eliminates Chief Sales Officer Role

Neutral

Apr 4, 2025

On April 1, 2025, Upland Software, Inc. eliminated the Chief Sales Officer position and terminated Oliver Yates, the CSO, without cause. Mr. Yates’s departure was not due to any disputes or disagreements with the company, including issues related to accounting or financial reporting, and he will receive severance as per his employment agreement.

Glossary

OutperformA stock rated as "Outperform" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider this stock a good buying opportunity.

NeutralA stock rated as "Neutral" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly attractive nor unattractive for investment. Investors may consider holding onto the stock, as it is not expected to either significantly outperform or underperform the market.

UnderperformA stock rated as "Underperform" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock may deliver lower returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider selling the stock or avoiding it as an investment.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.