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UnitedHealth
(NYSE:UNH)
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Rating:70Outperform
Price Target:
$416.00
▲(4.89% Upside)
Action:Upgraded
Date:10/14/26
UNH scores well on financial quality (strong absolute cash generation) and a constructive earnings outlook with raised 2026 EPS guidance and improving Medicare margins. The score is held back by weaker recent financial trajectory (TTM revenue decline and margin compression) and only middling technical momentum (negative MACD and below key moving averages). Valuation and dividend are supportive but not a major catalyst on their own.
Positive Factors
Strong cash generation
UnitedHealth’s substantial operating and free cash flow supports investment across insurance, pharmacy, care delivery, and technology services while funding dividends and other capital needs. Free cash flow has also generally tracked earnings well, indicating meaningful underlying cash conversion despite recent growth volatility.
Negative Factors
Revenue and margin compression
The recent deterioration in revenue and profitability indicates that UnitedHealth’s earnings base is under pressure despite its considerable scale. If weaker trends persist, lower margins could restrict reinvestment capacity, reduce operating flexibility, and make the long-term growth target harder to achieve.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Strong cash generation
UnitedHealth’s substantial operating and free cash flow supports investment across insurance, pharmacy, care delivery, and technology services while funding dividends and other capital needs. Free cash flow has also generally tracked earnings well, indicating meaningful underlying cash conversion despite recent growth volatility.
Read all positive factors
UnitedHealth Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Revenue by Type
Categorizes income by source, such as premiums, services, or products, revealing diversification and potential vulnerabilities in revenue streams.
Categorizes income by source, such as premiums, services, or products, revealing diversification and potential vulnerabilities in revenue streams.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyUnitedHealth (UNH) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$368.83B
Dividend Yield2.2%
Average Volume (3M)5.65M
Price to Earnings (P/E)23.5
Beta (1Y)0.40
Revenue Growth3.33%
EPS GrowthN/A
CountryUS
Employees390,000
SectorHealthcare
Sector Strength45
IndustryMedical - Healthcare Plans
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)17.52
Shares Outstanding897,594,850
10 Day Avg. Volume5,559,848
30 Day Avg. Volume5,648,578
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-1.62
Price to Book (P/B)3.19
Price to Sales (P/S)0.67
P/FCF Ratio18.69
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.10
Enterprise Value/Revenue0.90
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit3.97
Enterprise Value/Ebitda14.53
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$482.69Price Target Upside21.71% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering18
EPS Forecast (FY)20.6
Revenue Forecast (FY)$448.33B
UnitedHealth Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
UnitedHealth Group Incorporated (UNH) operates as a comprehensive healthcare enterprise across the United States, structuring its diverse services into four key divisions: UnitedHealthcare, Optum Health, Optum Insight, and Optum Rx. The UnitedHeal...
How the Company Makes Money
UnitedHealth primarily makes money through (1) health insurance and benefit administration and (2) health services, with revenue and earnings generated across its two main segments.
1) UnitedHealthcare (health benefits)
- Premium revenue: A major...
UnitedHealth Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Oct 13, 2026
(Q3-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Jan 20, 2027
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call was predominantly positive, with improved third-quarter earnings, a lower medical care ratio, raised 2026 adjusted EPS guidance, Medicare Advantage margin recovery, strong Optum operating metrics, AI and modernization progress, capital returns, and confidence in 2027 growth. The main challenges were persistently high medical costs, commercial trends above 11%, negative Medicaid core margins, No Surprises Act arbitration costs, and continued policy and funding pressures.Positive Updates
Strong Third-Quarter Financial Performance
Third-quarter 2026 revenue was $113 billion, and adjusted earnings per share was $4.69, up from $2.92 a year ago. The consolidated medical care ratio improved to 88.4% from 89.9% last year.
Negative Updates
Persistently High Healthcare Costs
Costs remain stubbornly high across the healthcare landscape, particularly in specialty pharmacy and acute healthcare service intensity. Management also said care intensity remains elevated relative to historical norms and that clinician pricing pressure continues.
Read all updates
Q3-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Strong Third-Quarter Financial Performance
Third-quarter 2026 revenue was $113 billion, and adjusted earnings per share was $4.69, up from $2.92 a year ago. The consolidated medical care ratio improved to 88.4% from 89.9% last year.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
UnitedHealth Group reaffirmed its 13%-16% long-term target growth range, views the lower end of its long-term 13%-16% growth rate as a more reasonable starting point for 2027, and updated 2026 adjusted EPS guidance to at least $20.50; it expects debt-to-cap ratio to approach 40% by year-end, dividends to exceed $8 billion by year-end, 2026 core Medicaid margins to be moderately better than negative 1%, and 2026 Medicare margins to be near the top end of the 2%-4% range. For 2027, more than 94% of Medicare-eligible individuals nationwide will have access to a UnitedHealthcare Medicare plan, approximately 90% will have access to a Medicare Advantage plan with a $0 premium option, chronic special needs plans will be available to nearly 50 million Medicare-eligible individuals, and the company expects to approach 75% of total members in four-plus Star plans compared to the industry average of 70%; Optum Health remains paced toward its 6%-8% target margin range by 2028, while Optum Insight expects meaningful progress in 2027, setting the foundation for accelerating growth in 2028 and beyond.UnitedHealth Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
74
Positive
Balance Sheet
72
Positive
Cash Flow
78
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 449.66B | 447.57B | 400.28B | 371.62B | 324.16B | 287.60B |
| Gross Profit | 102.58B | 82.92B | 89.40B | 90.96B | 79.62B | 69.65B |
| EBITDA | 27.99B | 23.06B | 28.08B | 36.33B | 31.84B | 27.07B |
| Net Income | 15.88B | 12.06B | 14.40B | 22.38B | 20.12B | 17.29B |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 312.78B | 309.58B | 298.28B | 273.72B | 245.71B | 212.21B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 28.55B | 28.12B | 29.11B | 29.63B | 27.91B | 23.91B |
| Total Debt | 74.33B | 78.39B | 76.90B | 67.44B | 57.62B | 46.00B |
| Total Liabilities | 207.24B | 207.88B | 195.69B | 174.80B | 159.36B | 135.73B |
| Stockholders Equity | 104.13B | 94.11B | 92.66B | 88.76B | 77.77B | 71.76B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 22.83B | 16.07B | 20.70B | 25.68B | 23.40B | 19.89B |
| Operating Cash Flow | 26.20B | 19.70B | 24.20B | 29.07B | 26.21B | 22.34B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -11.43B | -8.69B | -20.53B | -15.57B | -28.48B | -10.37B |
| Financing Cash Flow | -16.06B | -11.64B | -3.51B | -11.53B | 4.23B | -7.46B |
UnitedHealth Technical Analysis
Positive
396.59
Price Trends
388.98
Positive
400.48
Positive
359.22
Positive
Market Momentum
8.40
Negative
59.46
Neutral
42.69
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For UNH, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 396.59 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 396.92, above the 50-day MA of 388.98, and above the 200-day MA of 359.22, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 8.40 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 59.46 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 42.69 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for UNH.
UnitedHealth Risk Analysis
UnitedHealth disclosed 21 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. UnitedHealth reported the most risks in the "Legal & Regulatory" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
UnitedHealth Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (51)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
76 Outperform | $91.18B | 17.97 | 11.59% | 1.63% | 3.60% | -4.06% | |
75 Outperform | $78.85B | 12.31 | 15.24% | 2.07% | 8.15% | 31.47% | |
70 Outperform | $368.83B | 23.45 | 16.10% | 2.20% | 3.33% | ― | |
65 Neutral | $50.14B | 39.21 | 6.91% | 0.85% | 18.33% | -18.53% | |
63 Neutral | $33.97B | 23.18 | 6.78% | ― | 9.71% | ― | |
62 Neutral | $115.53B | 23.58 | 6.43% | 2.94% | 7.41% | 6.51% | |
51 Neutral | $7.86B | -0.30 | -43.30% | 2.27% | 22.53% | -2.21% |
* Healthcare Sector Average
UNH
UnitedHealth
406.97
74.27
22.32%
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68.45
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CI
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298.23
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24.79%
CVS
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14.43
19.03%
HUM
Humana
414.50
139.89
50.94%
ELV
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420.07
109.06
35.06%
UnitedHealth Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyRegulatory Filings and Compliance
UnitedHealth to Present Strategy at Wells Fargo Conference
Neutral
Sep 8, 2026
UnitedHealth Group senior leaders will participate in an interview-style discussion at the Wells Fargo 21st Annual Healthcare Conference on Wednesday, September 9, 2026, at 8:00 a.m. Eastern Time, addressing the company’s strategy, market po...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.