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Tri-County Financial Group (TYFG) AI Stock Analysis

5 Followers
TYFG

Tri-County Financial Group

(Other OTC:TYFG)

Select Model
Rating:68Neutral
Price Target:$91.00â–²(9.15% Upside)
Action:reiterated
Date:11/03/26

The stock's strong technical momentum and reasonable valuation are the primary drivers of the score. The financial performance is a mixed bag, with improving net income and a healthier balance sheet offset by declining cash flows and compressed margins. The pending merger with HBT Financial represents a notable future catalyst but is excluded from the current score calculation.

Positive Factors
Improving Revenue and ProfitabilityThe recent rebound in revenue and profitability indicates improving operating performance and customer activity. Higher margins can strengthen retained earnings and internal funding capacity, while sustained improvement would provide a more durable base for growth and support the company through normal regional-banking cycles.
Negative Factors
Moderate Returns and Remaining DebtAlthough leverage has improved, moderate return on equity indicates the company is not converting its capital base into especially strong profitability. Sizable remaining debt leaves less room for error if credit costs rise or earnings weaken, potentially limiting flexibility and long-term shareholder returns.

Tri-County Financial Group (TYFG) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

-20%0%20%40%60%80%TYFG+76.52%SPY+12.53%Dec '25Jan '26Feb '26Mar '26Apr '26May '26Jun '26Jul '26Aug '26Sep '26Oct '26Nov '26
Market Cap
$202.44M
Dividend Yield
1.31%
Average Volume (3M)
4,106
Price to Earnings (P/E)
12.5
Beta (1Y)
0.13
Revenue Growth
4.88%
EPS Growth
30.33%
Country
US
Employees
287
Sector
Financial
Sector Strength
68
Industry
Banks - Regional

Tri-County Financial Group Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Tri-County Financial Group, Inc. operates as the holding company for First State Bank, delivering a comprehensive suite of banking and financial services to individual consumers and corporate clients throughout the United States. The company's deposi...

Tri-County Financial Group Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Revenue and net income are recovering, but margin compression and declining cash flow limit the score. The balance sheet is strengthening with lower leverage, but overall profitability remains below historical peaks.

Income Statement

60Neutral

Balance Sheet

68Positive

Cash Flow

55Neutral
Financial statement breakdown
BreakdownTTMDec 2025Dec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue102.08M99.26M93.53M84.84M67.78M78.86M
Gross Profit70.51M66.67M59.82M59.12M62.53M70.60M
EBITDA22.73M18.49M13.86M15.06M18.16M19.68M
Net Income16.19M13.66M10.43M10.04M12.24M13.22M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets1.56B1.60B1.54B1.55B1.54B1.40B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments58.35M200.40M186.15M201.75M256.59M309.52M
Total Debt77.19M110.88M101.27M148.30M253.16M41.16M
Total Liabilities1.40B1.44B1.40B1.42B1.41B1.27B
Stockholders Equity165.00M157.77M143.19M136.14M133.08M136.64M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow23.81M10.16M11.11M11.69M22.79M56.74M
Operating Cash Flow23.98M10.63M12.32M12.07M25.07M57.55M
Investing Cash Flow9.89M-43.67M29.58M-18.40M-314.83M-49.19M
Financing Cash Flow-20.40M37.70M-24.94M-2.46M140.66M67.56M

Tri-County Financial Group Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis SentimentPositive
Last Price83.38

Price Trends

50DMA80.22Positive
100DMA74.55Positive
200DMA64.06Positive

Market Momentum

MACD1.02Negative
RSI68.12Neutral
STOCH93.23Negative

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TYFG, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 83.38 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 80.94, above the 50-day MA of 80.22, and above the 200-day MA of 64.06, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 1.02 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 68.12 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 93.23 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for TYFG.

Tri-County Financial Group Risk Analysis

Tri-County Financial Group disclosed 40 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Tri-County Financial Group reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.

Higher RiskSector Avg.Lower RiskFinance & CorporateTech & InnovationLegal & RegulatoryProductionAbility to SellMacro & Political
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy

Latest Risks Added

0 New Risks

Tri-County Financial Group Peers Comparison

Overall Rating

UnderperformOutperform
Sector (68)

Financial Indicators

TYFG against its peers
NameOverall RatingMarket CapP/E RatioROEDividend YieldRevenue GrowthEPS Growth
TYFGTYFG68Neutral$202.44M12.549.72%1.31%4.88%30.33%
Sector *68Neutral$18.00B11.429.92%3.81%9.73%1.22%
SFBCSFBC65Neutral$113.66M13.277.76%1.82%0.49%26.64%
UNBUNB63Neutral$111.63M8.6715.07%6.31%3.17%5.55%
BSBKBSBK57Neutral$118.42M43.22<0.01%―20.94%444.24%
RVSBRVSB54Neutral$120.01M-42.12-2.02%1.31%-10.03%-162.70%
SRBKSRBK54Neutral$137.69M37.102.02%1.16%9.63%37.01%

* Financial Sector Average

Performance Comparison

0%20%40%60%TYFGRVSBUNBSFBCBSBKSRBKDec '25Jan '26Feb '26Mar '26Apr '26May '26Jun '26Jul '26Aug '26Sep '26Oct '26Nov '26
TYFG and its peers over the selected period
Show on chartTickerCompany NamePriceChange% Change
TYFGTri-County Financial Group 83.3836.2476.89%
RVSBRiverview6.090.6311.56%
UNBUnion Bankshares, Inc.22.810.904.13%
SFBCSound Financial Bancorp, Inc.45.000.831.87%
BSBKBogota Financial Corp.9.250.667.68%
SRBKSR Bancorp, Inc.18.924.1628.22%

Tri-County Financial Group Corporate Events

M&A TransactionsShareholder Meetings

Tri-County Financial Group Stockholders Approve HBT Financial Merger

Positive
Nov 2, 2026

On October 29, 2026, Tri-County Financial Group held a special stockholder meeting on its proposed merger with HBT Financial, with HBT surviving. Stockholders representing 82.3% of outstanding shares formed a quorum; they approved the merger proposal...

Business Operations and StrategyM&A Transactions

Tri-County Financial to Merge with HBT Financial

Positive
Aug 10, 2026

On August 10, 2026, Tri-County Financial Group agreed to merge with HBT Financial in a cash-and-stock deal valued at about $204.6 million, based on HBT&#8217;s August 7, 2026 share price, with Tri-County investors able to elect stock, cash, or a mix....

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.

Date of analysis: Nov 03, 2026