TXNM Energy (TXNM) Risk Analysis

Changes in tax laws may negatively impact TXNM's, PNM's, and TNMP's businesses, financial position, results of operations, and cash flows. The Company possesses tax credits and other carryforwards, the value of which could be diminished by new laws or the Company's ability to timely utilize them. Increases in tax rates may not be immediately recoverable through PNM's and TNMP's regulated rates, reducing earnings. Tax laws and regulations may also negatively impact the relative value of some resource investments over others, making those investments less competitive.

Compliance with federal, state, tribal, and local environmental laws and regulations, including those addressing climate change, air quality, CCRs, discharges of wastewater originating from fly ash and bottom ash handling facilities, cooling water, sustainability, GHG emissions, and other matters, may result in increased capital, operating, and other costs, particularly with regard to enforcement efforts focused on power plant emission control obligations. These costs could include remediation, containment, civil liability, and monitoring expenses. The Company cannot predict how it would be affected if existing environmental laws and regulations were to be repealed, revised, or reinterpreted, or if new environmental laws or regulations were to be adopted. See Note 16 and the Climate Change Issues subsection of the Other Issues Facing the Company section of MD&A. The utility industry is facing increasing stakeholder scrutiny related to sustainability. Recently, TXNM has seen a rise in certain stakeholders, such as investors, customers, employees, and lenders, placing increasing importance on the impact and social cost associated with climate change. Federal GHG reduction measures setting standards and emission guidelines, and climate-related disclosure rules remain in a state of uncertainty. Therefore, TXNM is dealing with an uncertain regulatory and policy environment and increased scrutiny and changing stakeholder expectations with respect to environmental and climate change programs, judicial decisions, and international accords. Under the Biden Administration, EPA and other federal agencies have sought to expand climate change regulations and work to aggressively reduce GHG emissions. Although it is uncertain how the current Trump Administration will ultimately act with respect to these regulations, many state agencies, environmental advocacy groups, and other organizations will continue to focus on decarbonization with enhanced attention on GHG from fossil-fueled generation facilities. See discussion above and Note 17, regarding PNM's abandonment applications and the ETA. PNM currently depends on fossil-fueled generation for 28.2% of its electricity. As discussed under Climate Change Issues, this type of generation is subject to existing and future EPA or state regulations requiring GHG reductions. The anticipated expansion of federal and state regulations could result in additional operating restrictions on facilities and increased generation and compliance costs. CCRs from the operation of SJGS were used in the reclamation of a surface coal mine. These CCRs consist of fly ash, bottom ash, and gypsum. Any new regulation that would affect the reclamation process, including any future decision regarding classification of CCRs as hazardous waste, could significantly increase the costs of the disposal of CCRs and the costs of mine reclamation. In addition, PNM would incur additional costs to the extent the rule requires the closure or modification of CCR units at Four Corners or the construction of new CCR units beyond those already anticipated or requires corrective action to address releases from CCR disposal units at the site. See Note 16. A regulatory body may identify a site requiring environmental cleanup, including cleanup related to catastrophic events such as hurricanes or wildfires, and designate PNM or TNMP as a responsible party. There is also uncertainty in quantifying exposure under environmental laws that impose joint and several liability on all potentially responsible parties. Failure to comply with environmental laws and regulations, even if such non-compliance is caused by factors beyond PNM's or TNMP's control, may result in the assessment of civil or criminal penalties and fines. In the first round of the CAA regional haze program, BART determinations were made for both SJGS and Four Corners, requiring the facilities to reduce the levels of visibility-impairing emissions, including NOx, through the installation of control technology, resulting in operating cost increases. Deadlines for SIPs for the second planning period were in July 2021 which NMED was unable to meet. NMED is currently preparing its next regional haze SIP and notified PNM that it will not be required to submit a regional haze four-factor analysis for SJGS since PNM retired its share of SJGS in 2022. In February 2024, EPA proposed to impose a federal implementation plan on New Mexico to address the interstate transport of ozone and its precursors, referred to by EPA as the "good neighbor" rule. If finalized as proposed, compliance with the rule would require specified fossil fuel-fired generating resources to participate in an ozone-season NOx emission allowance trading program that will limit total NOx emissions from all affected units within the state of New Mexico. In December 2024, EPA pulled its proposed rule from the OMB and did not specify if and when the rule might be resubmitted for review. If PNM fails to timely obtain, maintain, or comply with any required environmental regulatory approval, operations at affected facilities could be suspended or could subject PNM to additional expenses and potential penalties. Failure to comply with applicable environmental laws and regulations also could result in civil liability arising out of government enforcement actions or private claims. Environmental noncompliance could also result in reputational harm, which may cause stock price decreases or cause certain investors and financial institutions not to purchase the Company's debt securities or otherwise provide the Company with capital or credit on favorable terms, which may cause the cost of capital to increase. In addition, TXNM and its operating subsidiaries may underestimate the costs of environmental compliance, liabilities, and litigation due to the uncertainty inherent in these matters. Although there is uncertainty about the timing and form of the implementation of EPA's regulations regarding GHG emissions, climate change, CCRs, power plant emissions, changes to the ambient air quality standards, and other environmental issues, the promulgation and implementation of such regulations could have a material impact on operations. The Company is unable to estimate these costs due to the many uncertainties associated with, among other things, the nature and extent of future regulations and changes in existing regulations, including the changes in regulatory policy under the Trump Administration. Timely regulatory recovery of costs associated with any environmental-related regulations would be needed to maintain a strong financial and operational profile. The above factors could adversely affect the Company's business, financial position, results of operations, and liquidity.

TXNM and its subsidiaries rely on access to both short-term and longer-term capital markets as sources of liquidity for any capital requirements not satisfied by cash flow from operations. In general, the Company relies on its short-term credit facilities as the initial source to finance construction expenditures. This results in increased borrowings under the facilities over time. The Company is currently projecting total construction expenditures for the years 2025-2029 to be $7.8 billion. If TXNM or its operating subsidiaries are not able to access capital at competitive rates, or at all, TXNM's ability to finance capital requirements and implement its strategy will be limited. Disruptions in the credit markets, which could negatively impact the Company's access to capital, could be caused by an economic recession, declines in the health of the banking sector generally or the failure of specific banks who are parties to the Company's credit facilities, deterioration in the overall health of the utility industry, the bankruptcy of an unrelated energy company, war, terrorist attacks, cybersecurity attacks, or threatened attacks. If the Company's cash flow and credit and capital resources are insufficient to fund capital expenditure plans, the Company may be forced to delay important capital investments, sell assets, seek additional equity or debt capital, or restructure debt. In addition, insufficient cash flows and capital resources may result in reductions of credit ratings. This could negatively impact the Company's ability to incur additional indebtedness on acceptable terms and would result in an increase in the interest rates applicable under the Company's credit facilities. The Company's cash flow and capital resources may be insufficient to pay interest and principal on debt in the future. If that should occur, the Company's capital raising or debt restructuring measures may be unsuccessful or inadequate to meet scheduled debt service obligations. This could cause the Company to default on its obligations and further impair liquidity.

Research and development activities are ongoing for new technologies that produce power or reduce power consumption. These technologies include renewable energy, customer-oriented generation, energy storage, and energy efficiency. PNM generates power at central station power plants to achieve economies of scale and produce power at a cost that is competitive with rates established through the regulatory process. There are distributed generation technologies that produce power, including fuel cells, microturbines, wind turbines, and solar cells, which have become increasingly cost competitive. These advances in technology have reduced the costs of these alternative methods of producing power to a level that is competitive with that of central station power production. In addition, advances made in the capabilities of energy storage have further decreased power production and peak usage through the dispatch of more battery systems. These technological advances have resulted in demand reduction that negatively impact revenue and/or result in underutilized assets that have been built to serve peak usage. In addition, certain federal, state, or local requirements that regulated utilities such as PNM are required to follow could result in third parties being able to provide electricity from similar generation technologies to consumers at prices lower than PNM is able to offer. As these technologies become more cost competitive or can be used by third parties to supply power at lower prices than PNM is able to offer, PNM's energy sales and/or regulated returns could be eroded, and the value of its generating facilities could be reduced. Advances in technology could also change the channels through which electric customers purchase or use power, which could reduce the Company's sales and revenues or increase expenses. These advances can also create more uncertainty in load shapes and forecasts, which could have implications for generation and system planning.

PNM is obligated to supply power to retail customers. As PNM continues to complete the significant transition in generation resources necessary to achieve 100% carbon emission-free generation by 2040, there are certain potential deliverability and cost risks associated with this transition. These risks are in three main areas, including 1) risk of completion of replacement resources prior to planned generation unit retirements, 2) increasing levels of renewable generation presenting risks of uncertainty and variability that will be further compounded as neighboring systems transition towards increasing levels of renewable resources, and 3) risks for mitigating possible resource volatility through a shrinking energy market. At peak times, power demand could exceed PNM's forecasted available generation capacity, particularly if PNM's power plants are not performing as anticipated and additional resources are not approved, or are not available, as PNM transitions its system to carbon emission-free generation and energy storage. Availability of this technology may create additional strain on the system by adding these additional resources without adequate storage. Additionally, further advances in the technology of renewable resources may need to occur in order to ensure that these resources meet carbon emission-free standards. Competitive market forces or adverse regulatory actions may require PNM to purchase capacity and energy from the market or build additional resources to meet customers' energy needs in an expedited manner. If that occurs, PNM may see opposition to recovery of these additional costs and could experience a lag between when costs are incurred and when regulators permit recovery in customers' rates. These situations could have negative impacts on results of operations and cash flows.

The Company faces the risk of physical and cybersecurity attacks, both threatened and actual, against generation facilities, transmission and distribution infrastructure, information technology systems, and network infrastructure, which could negatively impact the ability of the Company to generate, transmit, and distribute power, or otherwise operate facilities in the most efficient manner or at all. The utility industry in which the Company operates is a highly regulated industry that requires the continued operation of sophisticated information technology systems and network infrastructure, some of which are deemed to be critical infrastructure under NERC guidelines. Certain of the Company's systems are interconnected with external networks. In the regular course of business, the utilities handle a range of sensitive security and customer information. PNM and TNMP are subject to the rules of various agencies and the laws of various states, related to safeguarding and maintaining the confidentiality of this information. Cyber-attacks regularly occur, and generally are unsuccessful. To date, those few events that were successful did not result in significant or consequential business impacts. However, despite steps the Company may take to detect, mitigate, and/or eliminate threats and respond to security incidents, the techniques used by those who wish to obtain unauthorized access, and possibly disable or sabotage systems and/or abscond with information and data, change frequently and continue to evolve with the use of artificial intelligence and the Company may not be able to protect against all such actions. With the proliferation of Generative Artificial Intelligence ("GenAI") tools like opensource ChatGPT and other public Large Language models, bad actors are becoming better equipped to effectively launch social engineering attacks against individuals and organizations. With their broad array of use cases, these tools are enhancing data theft, malware development, social engineering, ransomware, and misinformation. GenAI technology is enabling malicious actors to increase the speed and variation of their attacks by modifying code almost instantaneously, enabling attacks to be created and deployed with thousands of variations of social engineering messages, effectively changing to a more iterative attack methodology to increase their probability of success. In the event that a capable adversary attacks the Company's computer and operating systems, despite the best efforts of the Company, the generation, transmission, or distribution of electrical services could be degraded or disrupted, customer information, business records, or other sensitive data could be lost, destroyed, or released outside of the Company's control. Further, the Company's use of technologies manufactured by third parties, including applications with GenAI capabilities, may be subject to espionage activities, and cyber-attack of the third party resulting in the loss of confidentiality, privacy, integrity of data, and other losses outside of the control of the Company. Although the Company has implemented security measures to identify, prevent, detect, respond to, and recover from cyber and physical security events and supply chain disruptions, critical infrastructure, including information and operational technology systems, are vulnerable to disability, failures, or unauthorized access, which could occur as a result of malicious compromise, employee error, and/or employee misconduct or supply compromise. A successful physical or cybersecurity attack or other similar failure of the systems could impact the reliability of PNM's generation and PNM's and TNMP's transmission and distribution systems, including the possible unauthorized shutdown of facilities. Such an event could lead to disruptions of business operations, including the Company's ability to generate, transport, and deliver power to serve customers, to bill customers, and to process other financial information. A breach of the Company's information systems could also lead to the loss and destruction of confidential and proprietary data, personally identifiable information, trade secrets, intellectual property and supplier data, and could disrupt business operations which could harm the Company's reputation and financial results, as well as potential increased regulatory oversight, litigation, fines, and other remedial action. The costs incurred to investigate and remediate a physical or cybersecurity attack could be significant. A significant physical or cybersecurity attack on the Company's critical infrastructure could have an adverse impact on the operations, reputation and financial condition of TXNM, PNM, and TNMP.