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Tvardi Therapeutics
(NASDAQ:TVRD)
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Rating:45Neutral
Price Target:
$1.00
▼(-45.05% Downside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:09/24/26
TVRD scores low primarily due to very weak financial performance (zero revenue, ongoing losses, and continued cash burn) and bearish technicals (price below major moving averages with negative MACD). Positive Phase 1 updates and a clearer clinical strategy provide some offset, but valuation support is limited given ongoing losses.
Positive Factors
Phase 1 target engagement and tolerability
The Phase 1 results provide clinical proof-of-mechanism for TTI-109, with pharmacokinetic exposure above the STAT3 IC₅₀ and reductions in relevant immune-cell populations. Improved tolerability may support adherence and strengthen the candidate’s prospects for later-stage development.
Negative Factors
No current revenue and persistent losses
The absence of current revenue means Tvardi has not yet established a commercial funding engine and remains dependent on development financing. Persistent net and operating losses reduce financial resilience, making future progress reliant on successful clinical execution and eventual product monetization.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Phase 1 target engagement and tolerability
The Phase 1 results provide clinical proof-of-mechanism for TTI-109, with pharmacokinetic exposure above the STAT3 IC₅₀ and reductions in relevant immune-cell populations. Improved tolerability may support adherence and strengthen the candidate’s prospects for later-stage development.
Read all positive factors
Tvardi Therapeutics (TVRD) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$13.61M
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)206.86K
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)0.85
Revenue Growth-100.00%
EPS Growth82.57%
CountryUS
Employees12
SectorHealthcare
Sector Strength45
IndustryBiotechnology
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)-2.79
Shares Outstanding13,338,943
10 Day Avg. Volume140,710
30 Day Avg. Volume206,864
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.02
Price to Book (P/B)1.52
Price to Sales (P/S)0.00
P/FCF Ratio-1.36
Enterprise Value/Market Cap0.16
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/Ebitda-0.08
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$8.17Price Target Upside348.72% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering7
EPS Forecast (FY)-2.25
Revenue Forecast (FY)N/A
Tvardi Therapeutics Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Tvardi Therapeutics, Inc., a clinical-stage biopharmaceutical company, engages in the development of novel, oral, and small molecule therapies targeting signal transducer and activator of transcription 3 (STAT3) to treat inflammatory and prolifera...
Tvardi Therapeutics Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Mar 04, 2024
(Q4-2023)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Nov 12, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The earnings call highlighted a strategic focus on a promising NP program with potential for significant clinical and commercial success. However, challenges with KORSUVA revenue and increased R&D expenses were notable concerns.Positive Updates
Focus on Notalgia Paresthetica
Cara Therapeutics has prioritized its program focusing on oral difelikefalin for notalgia paresthetica (NP), a chronic neuropathic condition with a significant unmet need. This strategic focus extends their cash runway into 2026.
Negative Updates
Challenges with KORSUVA Revenue
Despite demand growth, unfavorable reimbursement changes are expected to significantly restrict access to KORSUVA, leading to minimal revenue contributions.
Read all updates
Q4-2023 Updates
Positive
Negative
Focus on Notalgia Paresthetica
Cara Therapeutics has prioritized its program focusing on oral difelikefalin for notalgia paresthetica (NP), a chronic neuropathic condition with a significant unmet need. This strategic focus extends their cash runway into 2026.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
In the earnings call for Cara Therapeutics, the company provided guidance focused on the development of oral difelikefalin for notalgia paresthetica (NP), prioritizing this program to extend their cash runway into 2026. They reported significant demand growth for KORSUVA injection, with a 22% increase in vial shipments in Q4 2023, although future revenue from KORSUVA is not expected to be substantial due to reimbursement changes. The company highlighted that 34 million U.S. adults suffer from chronic pruritus, with 650,000 diagnosed NP patients, noting the lack of approved therapies and the significant unmet need for effective treatment. The Phase II/III COURAGE I study for NP has completed enrollment ahead of schedule, with top-line results anticipated in Q3 2024. Financially, Cara reported $3 million in revenue for Q4 2023 and ended the year with $1.8 million in cash, cash equivalents, and marketable securities, after using $92.1 million in operating activities and securing $36.5 million from a financing transaction.Tvardi Therapeutics Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
12
Very Negative
Balance Sheet
38
Negative
Cash Flow
18
Very Negative
| Breakdown | TTM | Mar 2026 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 0.00 | 0.00 | 7.14M | 20.97M | 41.87M | 23.03M |
| Gross Profit | 0.00 | -95.00K | 6.33M | 14.54M | 34.35M | 21.47M |
| EBITDA | -26.14M | -18.12M | -62.60M | -117.65M | -85.39M | -86.89M |
| Net Income | -26.06M | -18.21M | -70.87M | -118.51M | -85.47M | -88.44M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 17.52M | 32.07M | 43.83M | 27.00M | 45.10M | 247.06M |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 15.77M | 30.81M | 37.90M | 22.92M | 43.74M | 167.03M |
| Total Debt | 145.00K | 201.00K | 44.45M | 368.00K | 2.37M | 3.67M |
| Total Liabilities | 9.13M | 11.13M | 48.42M | 89.06M | 90.15M | 19.53M |
| Stockholders Equity | 8.38M | 20.95M | -4.59M | -62.06M | -45.05M | 227.52M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | -25.03M | -23.50M | -61.96M | -94.45M | -17.92M | -60.13M |
| Operating Cash Flow | -25.03M | -23.50M | -60.92M | -92.08M | -17.87M | -60.09M |
| Investing Cash Flow | 20.47M | -10.08M | 48.74M | 43.46M | -22.00M | -4.75M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -321.00K | 22.70M | -3.60M | 38.15M | 4.00K | 46.61M |
Tvardi Therapeutics Technical Analysis
Negative
1.82
Price Trends
1.51
Negative
2.05
Negative
2.88
Negative
Market Momentum
-0.16
Negative
34.25
Neutral
20.23
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TVRD, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 1.82 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 1.11, above the 50-day MA of 1.51, and below the 200-day MA of 2.88, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.16 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 34.25 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 20.23 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for TVRD.
Tvardi Therapeutics Risk Analysis
Tvardi Therapeutics disclosed 87 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Tvardi Therapeutics reported the most risks in the "Tech & Innovation" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Tvardi Therapeutics Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (51)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
51 Neutral | $7.86B | -0.30 | -43.30% | 2.27% | 22.53% | -2.21% | |
45 Neutral | $13.61M | -0.37 | -145.40% | ― | -100.00% | 82.57% | |
45 Neutral | $123.79M | -0.70 | -1032.19% | ― | 354.37% | -63.33% | |
45 Neutral | $685.19M | -5.76 | -21.82% | ― | ― | ― | |
41 Neutral | $31.41M | -0.68 | -160.72% | ― | 893.01% | 41.74% |
* Healthcare Sector Average
TVRD
Tvardi Therapeutics
1.02
-4.14
-80.23%
CUE
Cue Biopharma
18.95
-4.46
-19.05%
ALGS
Aligos Therapeutics
4.96
-4.53
-47.73%
GNTA
Genenta Science SpA Sponsored ADR
0.64
-2.59
-80.19%
ANL
Adlai Nortye Ltd. Sponsored ADR
11.26
9.60
578.31%
Tvardi Therapeutics Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyProduct-Related Announcements
Tvardi Therapeutics Targets Ulcerative Colitis With STAT3 Inhibitor
Positive
Jul 30, 2026
On July 30, 2026, Tvardi Therapeutics announced it had selected ulcerative colitis as the initial disease indication for its STAT3 inhibitor TTI-109, following a Phase 1 healthy volunteer study that showed broad modulation of key immune cell popul...
Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and FinancingRegulatory Filings and Compliance
Tvardi Therapeutics Expands At-The-Market Equity Program
Neutral
Jul 17, 2026
On May 1, 2026, Tvardi Therapeutics entered into a Capital on Demand Sales Agreement with JonesTrading Institutional Services, allowing the company to sell common shares from time to time under a shelf registration that became effective on May 12,...
Business Operations and StrategyProduct-Related Announcements
Tvardi Therapeutics Reports Phase 1 Data for TTI-109
Positive
Jul 7, 2026
On July 7, 2026, Tvardi Therapeutics reported Phase 1 results for TTI-109, a next-generation oral STAT3 inhibitor and phosphate prodrug of TTI-101 designed to improve delivery and tolerability while preserving mechanism of action. In healthy volun...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.