Tvardi Therapeutics (TVRD) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $350.72M
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 35.90K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): ―
• Beta (1Y): 1.09
• Revenue Growth: -40.16%
• EPS Growth: 78.28%
• Country: US
• Employees: 17
• Sector: Healthcare
• Sector Strength: 45
• Industry: Biotechnology
• EPS (TTM): -46.64
• Shares Outstanding: 9,377,433
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 66,390
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 35,904
• PEG Ratio: N/A
• Price to Book (P/B): N/A
• Price to Sales (P/S): N/A
• P/FCF Ratio: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 0.45
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 23.79
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 24.39
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: -5.85
• 1Y Price Target: $60.60
• Price Target Upside: 63.65% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Strong Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 5

• Rating: 50 Neutral
• Price Target: $27.00 ▼(-27.09% Downside)

The overall stock score reflects significant financial challenges and a negative valuation outlook, partially offset by positive technical trends and promising corporate developments in clinical trials. The financial performance is the most significant factor, weighing heavily on the score, while the potential for future growth from clinical advancements provides some optimism.

Positive Factors

Clinical Trial Progress

Positive clinical trial results can enhance Tvardi's market position and stakeholder interest, potentially leading to new partnerships and revenue streams.

Strategic Partnerships

Strategic partnerships can provide Tvardi with necessary funding and resources, enhancing its ability to advance drug development and commercialization.

Innovative Therapeutic Solutions

Tvardi's innovative approach in developing targeted therapies positions it well to address unmet medical needs, potentially leading to successful drug approvals.

Negative Factors

Revenue Decline

A significant decline in revenue growth indicates challenges in commercializing products, which could impact long-term financial stability and growth prospects.

Negative Cash Flows

Persistent negative cash flows highlight inefficiencies in operations and raise concerns about Tvardi's ability to sustain its business without external funding.

Financial Distress

Negative equity and substantial liabilities indicate financial distress, limiting Tvardi's flexibility to invest in growth opportunities and manage risks effectively.

Tvardi Therapeutics Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Tvardi Therapeutics is a clinical-stage biopharmaceutical company focused on developing novel, oral small molecule therapies targeting STAT3 to treat fibrosis-driven diseases with significant unmet need. Their lead candidate, TTI-101, is currently in Phase 2 clinical trials for idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (IPF) and hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC).

How the Company Makes Money

Tvardi Therapeutics generates revenue primarily through the development and commercialization of its proprietary drug candidates. The company may secure funding through several key revenue streams, including grants, strategic partnerships with larger pharmaceutical companies, and potential licensing agreements for its drug development programs. Additionally, Tvardi could benefit from milestone payments and royalties upon successful commercialization of its products. Collaborations with research institutions and participation in clinical trials also contribute to its funding and revenue generation efforts.

Tvardi Therapeutics Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Cara Therapeutics faces significant financial challenges, characterized by declining revenues, negative profitability, and weakening balance sheet strength. The persistent negative cash flows further exacerbate the risk profile, indicating a need for strategic adjustments to improve financial stability and investor confidence.

Income Statement

Cara Therapeutics has experienced significant revenue volatility over recent years, with a sharp decline from $135 million in 2020 to $7.1 million in 2024. The company has consistently reported negative net income, indicating ongoing challenges in achieving profitability. Gross profit margins have been positive when revenue is present, but operating margins such as EBIT and EBITDA margins are deeply negative, reflecting substantial operational losses.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet of Cara Therapeutics shows a concerning trend with the stockholders' equity turning negative in 2024, a sign of financial distress. The company has managed its debt levels well, with no debt in 2024, but the negative equity ratio and substantial liabilities are risks. Previously, the company had a stronger equity position, but recent losses have eroded this significantly.

Cash Flow

Cash flows from operations have been consistently negative, indicating challenges in generating cash from core activities. The free cash flow position has also worsened, and despite occasional influxes from financing activities, the company's ability to sustain its cash burn rate is concerning. The operating cash flow to net income ratio remains poor, highlighting inefficiencies in cash conversion.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	6.58M	7.14M	20.97M	41.87M	23.03M	135.08M
Gross Profit	6.42M	6.33M	14.54M	34.35M	21.47M	0.00
EBITDA	-26.76M	-62.60M	-17.25M	-20.45M	-86.89M	8.73M
Net Income	-20.89M	-70.87M	-17.35M	-20.54M	-88.44M	8.41M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	43.75M	43.83M	27.00M	45.10M	247.06M	271.16M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	40.99M	37.90M	22.92M	43.74M	167.03M	180.93M
Total Debt	254.00K	44.45M	368.00K	450.00K	3.67M	5.28M
Total Liabilities	10.82M	48.42M	89.06M	90.15M	19.53M	22.16M
Stockholders Equity	32.93M	-4.59M	-62.06M	-45.05M	227.52M	249.00M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	-31.58M	-61.96M	-21.04M	-17.92M	-60.13M	-5.84M
Operating Cash Flow	-31.58M	-60.92M	-21.04M	-17.87M	-60.09M	-5.49M
Investing Cash Flow	-12.93M	48.74M	22.47M	-22.00M	-4.75M	-20.27M
Financing Cash Flow	20.71M	-3.60M	2.00K	4.00K	46.61M	39.14M

Tvardi Therapeutics Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 37.03
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TVRD, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 37.03 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 33.10, above the 50-day MA of 28.50, and above the 200-day MA of 21.19, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 2.88 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 68.43 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 67.85 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for TVRD.

Tvardi Therapeutics Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
TVRD	50 Neutral	$350.72M	―	-93.85%	―	-40.16%	78.28%
SLRX	30 Underperform	2.14M	-0.09	―	―	―	74.27%
PCSA	29 Underperform	9.95M	-0.09	―	―	―	57.99%
WINT	28 Underperform	2.17M	―	―	―	―	85.35%
QNRX	25 Underperform	4.12M	-0.01	―	―	―	-146.64%
Sector *	51 Neutral	$7.86B	-0.30	-43.30%	2.27%	22.53%	-2.21%

Tvardi Therapeutics Corporate Events

Tvardi Therapeutics Updates Corporate Presentation on Therapies

On June 6, 2025, Tvardi Therapeutics updated its corporate presentation, highlighting its progress in developing therapies for fibrosis-driven diseases. The company reported encouraging trends in clinical trials for idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis and hepatocellular carcinoma, with significant data expected in late 2025 and early 2026, potentially impacting its market positioning and stakeholder interests.