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Telesat Corp
(TSX:TSAT)
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Rating:47Neutral
Price Target:
C$55.00
▼(-6.13% Downside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:10/31/26
The score is held down primarily by weak financial performance (large losses, negative free cash flow, and very high leverage with shrinking equity) and bearish technicals (price below major moving averages with negative momentum). The latest earnings call adds support via strong Lightspeed backlog and funding visibility, but near-term GEO declines and refinancing/earnings volatility keep overall risk elevated; valuation metrics are not meaningfully supportive due to negative earnings and no dividend.
Positive Factors
Large contracted Lightspeed backlog
The ESCAPE contract and approximately $5.6 billion Lightspeed backlog provide substantial future revenue visibility and validate demand from a government customer. A 15-year contract can support network utilization, improve planning confidence, and strengthen Telesat’s position as the constellation develops.
Negative Factors
Extreme leverage and shrinking equity
Very high leverage relative to the reduced equity base leaves Telesat with limited financial flexibility and makes debt management central to the investment case. Interest, refinancing needs, and maturity execution can constrain capital allocation and increase vulnerability if operating performance weakens.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Large contracted Lightspeed backlog
The ESCAPE contract and approximately $5.6 billion Lightspeed backlog provide substantial future revenue visibility and validate demand from a government customer. A 15-year contract can support network utilization, improve planning confidence, and strengthen Telesat’s position as the constellation develops.
Read all positive factors
Telesat Corp (TSAT) vs. iShares MSCI Canada ETF (EWC)
Market Cap
C$852.14M
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)50.83K
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)1.63
Revenue Growth-24.49%
EPS Growth-133.05%
CountryCA
Employees711
SectorTechnology
Sector Strength88
IndustryTelecommunications Services
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)-25.48
Shares Outstanding15,147,524
10 Day Avg. Volume73,638
30 Day Avg. Volume50,834
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-0.05
Price to Book (P/B)1.09
Price to Sales (P/S)1.39
P/FCF Ratio-0.83
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price Target
C$94.95Price Target Upside62.05% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering6
EPS Forecast (FY)-16.16
Revenue Forecast (FY)C$317.45M
Telesat Corp Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Telesat Corporation functions as a premier satellite communications provider, delivering essential connectivity solutions worldwide to clients in the broadcast, enterprise, and consulting fields. The company empowers direct-to-home (DTH) service p...
Telesat Corp Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Aug 13, 2026
(Q2-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Apr 01, 2027
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call conveyed strong strategic and operational momentum: a landmark ESCAPE contract, Lightspeed backlog of ~$5.6B, expansion to a 225‑satellite constellation, secured financing availability (including US$1.6B facility, vendor financing and ESCAPE milestone payments) and a target commercial service date of Q1 2028. At the same time, near‑term financials showed material pain: a Q2 consolidated net loss of $559M driven by a $475M warrant revaluation and FX effects, a 26% YoY decline in GEO revenue, lower GEO EBITDA, satellite retirements impacting utilization, and remaining refinancing/maturity risks. Overall, strategic positives and secure funding for Lightspeed are substantial and provide credible upside, but the company faces meaningful near‑term earnings volatility, legacy GEO headwinds and refinancing execution risk.Positive Updates
ESCAPE Contract and Lightspeed Backlog Growth
Signed the first ESCAPE contract with the Canadian Armed Forces; Lightspeed backlog increased to approximately $5.6 billion (increase largely driven by a 15‑year ESCAPE contract).
Negative Updates
Large Consolidated Net Loss Driven by Warrant Revaluation and FX
Consolidated net loss of $559 million in Q2 2026, including a $475 million increase in the fair value of Lightspeed warrants; warrants now valued at more than $1.3 billion. Weakened Canadian dollar increased the reported value of U.S. dollar‑denominated debt, contributing to losses.
Read all updates
Q2-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
ESCAPE Contract and Lightspeed Backlog Growth
Signed the first ESCAPE contract with the Canadian Armed Forces; Lightspeed backlog increased to approximately $5.6 billion (increase largely driven by a 15‑year ESCAPE contract).
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management updated 2026 guidance by raising Lightspeed total investment to CAD 1.3–1.5 billion (up CAD 300M from CAD 1.0–1.2B) and reiterated Telesat GEO full‑year guidance of revenue $300–320M and adjusted EBITDA $210–230M (excluding debt refinancing and related litigation); they expect Lightspeed global commercial availability in Q1 2028. Key program metrics: Lightspeed backlog ≈ $5.6B, YTD Lightspeed investment $336M (Q2 $165M; $145M CapEx + $20M opex), outstanding Lightspeed financing $974M (incl. $54M capitalized interest), >$200M cash in LEO, $1.6B available under Lightspeed financing, $325M vendor financing, $1.5B ESCAPE milestone payment, and a $500M contingency. GEO/Q2 metrics and liquidity: consolidated Q2 revenue $79M, GEO Q2 revenue $78M (down 26% YoY), GEO backlog $900M, satellite utilization 60% (≈2pp lower ex‑retirements), GEO Q2 adjusted EBITDA $43M (would be $57M excluding ≈$14M refinancing costs), GEO cash ≈ $160M plus a new US$120M term loan, and expected C‑band incentive proceeds of US$189M. Consolidated Q2 net loss was $559M, driven in part by a $475M increase in the fair value of Lightspeed warrants (now valued at > $1.3B).Telesat Corp Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
24
Negative
Balance Sheet
18
Very Negative
Cash Flow
31
Negative
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 341.23M | 417.96M | 571.04M | 704.16M | 759.17M | 758.21M |
| Gross Profit | 143.62M | 153.71M | 533.07M | 665.65M | 705.16M | 728.00M |
| EBITDA | 21.60M | -229.97M | 67.02M | 1.14B | 394.71M | 641.15M |
| Net Income | -383.84M | -155.35M | -87.72M | 157.12M | -80.12M | 157.76M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 7.51B | 6.60B | 6.95B | 6.27B | 6.48B | 6.37B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 814.38M | 509.80M | 552.63M | 1.67B | 1.68B | 1.45B |
| Total Debt | 4.06B | 3.53B | 3.13B | 3.23B | 3.88B | 3.83B |
| Total Liabilities | 6.47B | 4.83B | 4.45B | 3.88B | 4.64B | 4.67B |
| Stockholders Equity | 338.92M | 530.82M | 710.28M | 661.92M | 480.37M | 416.52M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | -176.37M | -698.42M | -2.39M | 29.58M | 164.27M | 260.61M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 374.70M | 66.70M | 62.46M | 169.09M | 228.85M | 296.39M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -801.97M | -761.23M | -1.09B | 211.93M | 74.00K | -272.86M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 747.94M | 672.36M | -170.20M | -354.65M | -104.86M | 605.24M |
Telesat Corp Technical Analysis
Negative
58.59
Price Trends
63.97
Negative
63.61
Negative
59.48
Negative
Market Momentum
-1.61
Positive
39.24
Neutral
41.09
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TSE:TSAT, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 58.59 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 63.03, below the 50-day MA of 63.97, and below the 200-day MA of 59.48, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -1.61 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 39.24 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 41.09 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for TSE:TSAT.
Telesat Corp Risk Analysis
Telesat Corp disclosed 76 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Telesat Corp reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 1 New Risks
1.
Pandemics could have a material adverse effect on Telesat's business, financial condition and results of operations. Q4, 2023
Telesat Corp Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
67 Neutral | C$322.17M | 99.70 | 1.49% | 1.66% | 5.15% | ― | |
65 Neutral | C$1.04B | 17.34 | 27.94% | 13.28% | 3.94% | -2.30% | |
61 Neutral | $37.18B | 12.37 | -10.20% | 1.83% | 8.50% | -7.62% | |
47 Neutral | C$852.14M | -2.20 | -94.84% | ― | -24.49% | -133.05% | |
45 Neutral | C$37.99M | -2.42 | 252.15% | ― | -11.78% | -85.38% | |
43 Neutral | C$36.34M | -93.48 | -1.69% | 4.17% | -26.68% | -92.00% | |
41 Neutral | C$3.84M | -33.82 | 18.72% | ― | -10.92% | -135.71% |
* Technology Sector Average
TSE:TSAT
Telesat Corp
55.84
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34.39%
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Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.