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TRX Gold Corporation
(TSX:TRX)
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Rating:70Outperform
Price Target:
C$2.00
▲(17.65% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:09/15/26
The score is driven primarily by solid financial footing (strong revenue and cash generation with very low leverage) and a constructive technical setup (price above key moving averages with supportive momentum). The earnings call adds strength via reiterated guidance, record operational/EBITDA performance, and a funded expansion plan, partially offset by execution/JV uncertainty and elevated costs during optimization. Valuation is a notable drag due to the negative P/E and lack of dividend yield data.
Positive Factors
Improving production and recoveries
Higher throughput, production and metallurgical recovery demonstrate meaningful operational improvement and stronger asset productivity. These gains can support more consistent revenue and EBITDA generation while improving the economics of the company’s existing resource base over the next several quarters.
Negative Factors
Recent net loss and weak earnings quality
The sharp swing to a sizable trailing net loss indicates that operating progress has not yet translated into durable bottom-line profitability. Persistent below-the-line costs or other charges could constrain reinvestment capacity and reduce the quality and predictability of reported earnings.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Improving production and recoveries
Higher throughput, production and metallurgical recovery demonstrate meaningful operational improvement and stronger asset productivity. These gains can support more consistent revenue and EBITDA generation while improving the economics of the company’s existing resource base over the next several quarters.
Read all positive factors
TRX Gold Corporation (TRX) vs. iShares MSCI Canada ETF (EWC)
Market Cap
C$446.52M
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)185.31K
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)1.32
Revenue Growth139.67%
EPS Growth-6769.23%
CountryCA
Employees241
SectorBasic Materials
Sector Strength58
IndustryGold
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)-0.09
Shares Outstanding328,325,160
10 Day Avg. Volume159,753
30 Day Avg. Volume185,310
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-0.65
Price to Book (P/B)2.01
Price to Sales (P/S)1.97
P/FCF Ratio44.71
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price Target
C$3.32Price Target Upside95.22% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering3
EPS Forecast (FY)0.14
Revenue Forecast (FY)C$174.45M
TRX Gold Corporation Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
TRX Gold Corporation is engaged in the exploration, development, and production of mineral resources, operating exclusively within Tanzania. Its core asset is the Buckreef Gold Project, also situated in Tanzania. The company, originally establishe...
How the Company Makes Money
TRX’s business model is to create value from mineral properties by acquiring and holding prospective licenses, funding and operating exploration programs (e.g., geological mapping, sampling, drilling, resource delineation), and advancing projects ...
TRX Gold Corporation Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Jul 15, 2026
(Q3-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Nov 27, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call presents strong operational and financial momentum: record quarterly throughput and production, materially improved recoveries, record quarterly adjusted EBITDA, healthy cash and working capital, an active exploration program with multiple targets and a funded expansion plan that should drive meaningful scale and NAV uplift. The primary negatives are external/market-related (weak share price and sector valuation compression, potential trading/market-making dynamics) plus standard execution and timing risks associated with a major mill expansion, government JV negotiations, and short-term elevated processing costs. On balance, operational and financial positives are substantial and addressable risks are manageable, supporting an overall constructive view.Positive Updates
Record Q3 Operational Performance
Q3 plant achieved record throughput of ~1,690 tpd and average grade of 1.96 g/t; gold production for the quarter was >7.4k ounces, up ~60% year-over-year. Recovery improved materially from 67% last year to ~85% this year (~+18 percentage points).
Negative Updates
Market Valuation and Share Price Weakness
Management noted a sector-wide and company-specific decline in share price and valuation multiples despite operational progress; management flagged unusual trading dynamics (high out‑of‑the‑money options activity and concerns about market maker/shorting behavior) contributing to perceived disconnect between fundamentals and market price.
Read all updates
Q3-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Record Q3 Operational Performance
Q3 plant achieved record throughput of ~1,690 tpd and average grade of 1.96 g/t; gold production for the quarter was >7.4k ounces, up ~60% year-over-year. Recovery improved materially from 67% last year to ~85% this year (~+18 percentage points).
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management reiterated full‑year guidance of 25–30 koz (the low end already achieved) and provided a metrics‑heavy update: Q3 throughput 1.69 ktpd, grade 1.96 g/t, recovery ~85% and gold production >7.4 koz; Q3 revenue ~$33M, GAAP net income $8.4M and adjusted EBITDA ~$21M (annualized >$80M; LTM revenue ~$115M and LTM adjusted EBITDA $66.8M on ~28 koz LTM production). Balance sheet and inventory metrics include cash ~$27M, working capital >$36M (2.2x), ROM stockpile ~19 koz and ~1.6 koz in CIL inventory. Planned CapEx is ~$50M over 12–18 months (≈$30M for a new 3.5 ktpd SAG+ball mill, ~$10M TSF, >$10M sustaining; $6–8M already spent), giving theoretical combined capacity ~5.5 ktpd (nameplate 3.5 ktpd SAG circuit plus existing plant) with expected recoveries rising to 88–90%, cash costs $1.4–1.6k/oz (mining ~$3/t; processing >$25/t). A PEA update is expected in Q4 2026 (May 2025 PEA showed pretax NPV $1.9B at $4k/oz), resources anchored at ~1.5 Moz @ ~2.5 g/t, exploration will ramp to 4–5 rigs with assays starting in Q4, and management targets longer‑term production of ~80–100 kozpa and EBITDA >$200M in the coming years, funded from cash flow with undrawn credit lines.TRX Gold Corporation Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
56
Neutral
Balance Sheet
79
Positive
Cash Flow
68
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Nov 2025 | Nov 2024 | Aug 2023 | Aug 2022 | Nov 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 158.99M | 80.41M | 55.52M | 51.90M | ― | 0.00 |
| Gross Profit | 92.51M | 33.13M | 24.18M | 24.64M | 12.31M | -420.00K |
| EBITDA | 53.29M | ― | ― | 23.23M | ― | -6.27M |
| Net Income | -26.38M | 958.80K | -633.98K | 3.05M | -3.05M | -3.91M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 240.43M | 161.06M | 133.35M | 114.05M | 94.33M | 71.01M |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 37.07M | 10.67M | 11.24M | 10.33M | 11.13M | 16.90M |
| Total Debt | 6.89M | 3.86M | 1.81M | 136.80K | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Total Liabilities | 73.12M | 59.02M | 44.27M | 31.35M | 27.16M | 12.73M |
| Stockholders Equity | 121.99M | 78.67M | 74.06M | 73.01M | 64.07M | 60.29M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 3.34M | 3.54M | 2.21M | -623.06K | -12.79M | -20.94M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 39.79M | 22.36M | 20.66M | 23.47M | 3.88M | -9.44M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -36.47M | -19.72M | -18.87M | -24.21M | -18.21M | -8.32M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 27.53M | -3.41M | -843.06K | -409.05K | 7.80M | 29.53M |
TRX Gold Corporation Technical Analysis
Negative
1.70
Price Trends
1.63
Negative
1.43
Negative
1.68
Negative
Market Momentum
-0.07
Positive
36.57
Neutral
5.78
Positive
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TSE:TRX, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 1.7 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 1.57, above the 50-day MA of 1.63, and above the 200-day MA of 1.68, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.07 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 36.57 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 5.78 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for TSE:TRX.
TRX Gold Corporation Risk Analysis
TRX Gold Corporation disclosed 35 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. TRX Gold Corporation reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
TRX Gold Corporation Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
70 Outperform | C$446.52M | -14.83 | -26.91% | ― | 139.67% | -6769.23% | |
61 Neutral | $10.43B | 7.12 | -0.05% | 2.87% | 2.86% | -36.73% | |
56 Neutral | C$478.32M | -114.81 | -3.61% | ― | ― | -18.03% | |
55 Neutral | C$729.63M | -125.20 | -5.10% | ― | ― | -11.93% | |
51 Neutral | C$529.97M | -40.79 | -25.50% | ― | ― | 7.50% | |
50 Neutral | C$355.80M | -44.32 | -9.32% | ― | ― | -88.78% | |
44 Neutral | C$224.10M | -6.62 | -14.88% | ― | ― | -100.77% |
* Basic Materials Sector Average
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Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.