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Tethys Petroleum (TPL) AI Stock Analysis

TSE:TPL

Tethys Petroleum

(TSXV:TPL)

Select Model
Rating:66Neutral
Price Target:CAD 1.50â–²(33.33% Upside)
Action:reiterated
Date:10/23/26

The score is supported primarily by the debt-free balance sheet and reasonable recent profitability, with valuation also favorable. Volatile cash generation and mixed technical momentum materially limit the upside.

Positive Factors
Debt-free balance sheetA zero-debt balance sheet materially reduces financial risk and interest obligations, preserving flexibility to fund operations, develop assets, or withstand weaker industry conditions. This conservative capital structure provides a durable foundation even when operating results fluctuate.
Negative Factors
Weak free cash flow conversionPositive operating cash flow is not currently translating into surplus cash after investment needs, as TTM free cash flow turned slightly negative. Continued weak conversion could constrain self-funded growth and make reported earnings less dependable as a measure of financial flexibility.

Tethys Petroleum (TPL) vs. iShares MSCI Canada ETF (EWC)

-50%-25%0%25%50%75%100%TSE:TPL+0.45%EWC+21.27%Dec '25Jan '26Feb '26Mar '26Apr '26May '26Jun '26Jul '26Aug '26Sep '26Oct '26
Market Cap
CAD 98.78M
Dividend Yield
―
Average Volume (3M)
2,982
Price to Earnings (P/E)
11.6
Beta (1Y)
0.61
Revenue Growth
86.37%
EPS Growth
―
Country
Canada
Employees
232
Sector
Energy
Sector Strength
65
Industry
Oil & Gas Exploration & Production

Tethys Petroleum Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Tethys Petroleum Limited is an energy company primarily engaged in the acquisition, exploration, and development of oil and natural gas resources within Kazakhstan. The firm maintains complete ownership (a 100% working interest) across multiple criti...

How the Company Makes Money

TPL’s core revenue model (when operating producing assets) is based on upstream oil and gas production: it earns revenue by selling crude oil, condensate, and/or natural gas produced from its fields to buyers, with realized revenue determined by prod...

Tethys Petroleum Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Recent profitability and a debt-free balance sheet are strengths, but volatile earnings and weak, inconsistent free cash flow reduce the score.

Income Statement

71Positive

Balance Sheet

83Very Positive

Cash Flow

49Neutral
Financial statement breakdown
BreakdownTTMMar 2026Mar 2025Mar 2024Mar 2023Mar 2022
Income Statement
Total Revenue34.44M26.42M15.20M36.48M65.49M15.91M
Gross Profit16.02M14.22M6.72M26.13M50.84M9.38M
EBITDA9.45M7.96M-16.65M23.47M50.29M8.06M
Net Income7.06M6.67M-12.39M9.74M12.30M-3.99M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets71.88M64.23M56.23M85.33M87.27M73.94M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments6.25M8.15M5.96M7.22M14.54M9.28M
Total Debt00002.51M6.58M
Total Liabilities37.71M33.97M33.08M43.14M52.15M51.59M
Stockholders Equity34.17M30.26M23.15M42.19M35.12M22.36M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow-325.49K2.58M-803.00K-1.71M22.21M-577.00K
Operating Cash Flow5.97M10.77M6.91M10.11M34.08M14.91M
Investing Cash Flow-6.77M-7.80M-7.65M-11.55M-22.50M-8.73M
Financing Cash Flow176.00K-973.00K0-5.88M-5.16M1.40M

Tethys Petroleum Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis SentimentNeutral
Last Price1.13

Price Trends

50DMA1.13Negative
100DMA1.12Positive
200DMA1.33Negative

Market Momentum

MACD0.01Negative
RSI51.43Neutral
STOCH48.61Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TSE:TPL, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 1.13 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 1.10, below the 50-day MA of 1.13, and below the 200-day MA of 1.33, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.01 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 51.43 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 48.61 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for TSE:TPL.

Tethys Petroleum Peers Comparison

Overall Rating

UnderperformOutperform
Sector (65)

Financial Indicators

TSE:TPL against its peers
NameOverall RatingMarket CapP/E RatioROEDividend YieldRevenue GrowthEPS Growth
TSE:KEITSE:KEI76OutperformCAD 360.73M13.219.33%―23.27%-0.84%
TSE:TPLTSE:TPL66NeutralCAD 129.21M11.6423.08%―86.37%―
Sector *65Neutral$15.17B7.614.09%5.20%3.87%-62.32%
TSE:BNETSE:BNE49NeutralCAD 252.84M-120.45-0.41%―2.67%68.98%
TSE:ORC.BTSE:ORC.B49NeutralCAD 40.52M-0.89-28.96%318.40%-23.27%-777.54%
TSE:EOGTSE:EOG39UnderperformCAD 308.88M-25.41-41.15%――-341.10%
TSE:QECTSE:QEC35UnderperformCAD 131.30M-1.81-74.92%―273.28%-656.13%

* Energy Sector Average

Performance Comparison

0%200%400%600%TSE:TPLTSE:KEITSE:QECTSE:BNETSE:EOGTSE:ORC.BDec '25Jan '26Feb '26Mar '26Apr '26May '26Jun '26Jul '26Aug '26Sep '26Oct '26
TSE:TPL and its peers over the selected period
Show on chartTickerCompany NamePriceChange% Change
TSE:TPLTethys Petroleum 1.13-0.07-6.25%
TSE:KEIKolibri Global Energy Inc.10.074.1168.96%
TSE:QECQuesterre Corp.0.29-0.01-3.01%
TSE:BNEBonterra Energy7.013.4194.72%
TSE:EOGEco Atlantic Oil & Gas Ltd (UK)0.840.69479.31%
TSE:ORC.BOrca Exploration Group Class B0.800.1014.12%

Tethys Petroleum Corporate Events

Executive/Board ChangesLegal ProceedingsShareholder Meetings

Tethys Petroleum AGM Results Reshape Board and Cancel Disputed Share Blocks

Neutral
Sep 29, 2026

Tethys Petroleum reported the results of its annual general meeting held on September 29, 2026, where shareholders approved the receipt of financial statements, the appointment of Grant Thornton LLP as auditors, and the election of directors Adeola O...

Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board ChangesShareholder Meetings

Tethys Petroleum Faces Shareholder-Backed Board Nomination Ahead of AGM

Neutral
Sep 23, 2026

Tethys Petroleum has disclosed that shareholder Gazexport Limited intends to nominate two new directors, senior energy finance executive Douglas Lamb and petroleum engineering specialist Piers Johnson, at the company’s upcoming annual general m...

Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures

Tethys Petroleum warns Kazakh tax shock as Kul-Bas output climbs

Negative
Sep 18, 2026

Tethys Petroleum has warned that a sharp increase in Kazakhstan’s price-linked excise tax on gasoline and diesel, combined with ongoing export restrictions, will erode downstream margins and cash generation from its Kul-Bas crude refined for th...

Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures

Tethys Petroleum Boosts Sales, Targets Production Ramp-Up After Turbine Setbacks

Positive
Aug 24, 2026

Tethys Petroleum reported a 70% rise in second-quarter 2026 oil and gas sales to $10.4 million, driven by higher oil output and the start of processing crude into refined products, although the period swung to a small net loss from a prior-year profi...

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.

Date of analysis: Oct 23, 2026