TFI International (TFII) AI Stock Analysis

TFI International

(TSX:TFII)

Select Model

Rating:57Neutral

Price Target:CAD 135.00▲(0.64% Upside)

Action:reiterated

Date:10/31/26

Overall score reflects solid-but-cooling fundamentals (compressed margins/returns and softer cash conversion despite improving leverage) weighed down by very weak technicals (price below all key moving averages and deeply negative momentum). Valuation is neutral with a modest dividend, while the latest earnings call was moderately positive on truckload/logistics execution and cash flow but tempered by continued U.S. LTL turnaround risk.

Positive Factors

Truckload executionTruckload performance shows meaningful operational leverage, with stronger revenue, productivity, and profitability from a focused asset mix and specialized freight exposure. A leading segment margin and improved returns can support durable earnings growth if management sustains network discipline and customer mix improvements.

Negative Factors

U.S. LTL underperformanceU.S. LTL remains a substantial drag on consolidated profitability, with a very high operating ratio indicating weak network economics and execution. The gap versus Canadian LTL highlights a business-specific turnaround requirement that could absorb management attention and capital for several quarters.

TFI International (TFII) vs. iShares MSCI Canada ETF (EWC)

Market Cap: CAD 7.67B
Dividend Yield: 1.96%
Average Volume (3M): 313.22K
Price to Earnings (P/E): 20.4
Beta (1Y): 1.42
Revenue Growth: 3.39%
EPS Growth: 12.07%
Country: Canada
Employees: 25,875
Sector: Industrials
Sector Strength: 63
Industry: Trucking

TFI International Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

TFI International Inc., headquartered in Saint-Laurent, Canada, delivers comprehensive transportation and logistics solutions across the United States, Canada, and Mexico. The company's operations are divided into four primary segments: Package and C...

How the Company Makes Money

TFI International makes money primarily by charging customers for transportation and logistics services. Revenue is generated across its major operating segments: (1) Less-than-Truckload (LTL): TFI collects freight charges to move smaller shipments t...

TFI International Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Oct 28, 2026(Q3-2026)|% Change Since:-14.64%|Next Earnings Date:Feb 07, 2027

Earnings Call SentimentNeutral

The call presented strong third-quarter financial results, led by exceptional truckload performance, a significant logistics improvement, strong free cash flow, lower leverage, and continued capital-allocation flexibility. However, management repeatedly identified U.S. LTL as a major underperformer, with weak profitability, poor density, service problems, elevated third-party costs, an ending UPS partnership, and a turnaround that is expected to take time. The positive results and stated improvement plans were balanced by substantial operational and macroeconomic challenges.

Positive Updates

Strong Adjusted EPS and Operating Income Growth

Third-quarter adjusted diluted EPS was $1.67, up nearly 40% from $1.20 in the prior-year quarter. Overall operating income grew 17% to $180 million despite an office-related real estate impairment charge.

Negative Updates

U.S. LTL Remains a Major Underperformer

Management said it was not satisfied with U.S. LTL results in 2026 and described the business as a major problem. While consolidated LTL reported a 91.3% adjusted operating ratio, management estimated the U.S. operation was closer to a 97% operating ratio, compared with a sub-75% operating ratio in Canada.

Company Guidance

Updated outlook calls for full quarter adjusted EPS of $1.30-$1.40, with the high end representing a 28% YoY increase; year-over-year adjusted operating ratio improvement of 400 basis points-500 basis points in truckload and 100 basis points-200 basis points for logistics, and a slight decline maybe of 100 basis points, up to 100 basis points for LTL; net CapEx, excluding real estate, is expected to be in the range of $225 million-$250 million, with outlook ranges assuming no significant change in the operating environment. For 2027, management said truckload could be a sub-85% OR, that it would be very disappointed if LTL does not break the 90% OR globally, and that LTL volume is probably about flat versus Q3.

TFI International Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Fundamentals are solid but clearly off-cycle. Revenue is modestly higher TTM (+3.2%) and profitability remains positive, yet margins and returns have meaningfully compressed versus 2021–2022 (net margin ~4.2% TTM vs ~9–10% prior; operating margin ~7.3% vs ~13%). Balance sheet leverage has improved (debt-to-equity ~1.06 TTM vs ~1.38 in 2025) supporting flexibility, but cash-flow conversion has softened with FCF down ~10.8% TTM and operating cash flow running below net income (~0.78x).

Income Statement

63Positive

Balance Sheet

68Positive

Cash Flow

58Neutral

Financial statement breakdown
Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	9.11B	11.02B	11.50B	7.64B	8.55B	7.10B
Gross Profit	1.13B	1.35B	1.57B	1.18B	1.38B	1.01B
EBITDA	1.31B	1.65B	1.58B	1.23B	1.53B	1.35B
Net Income	384.37M	433.93M	578.79M	513.06M	798.73M	741.74M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	7.52B	10.29B	7.14B	6.27B	5.56B	5.83B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	187.49M	288.11M	0	334.75M	148.45M	19.13M
Total Debt	2.98B	5.07B	2.98B	2.34B	1.74B	2.02B
Total Liabilities	4.71B	6.62B	4.47B	3.68B	3.07B	3.54B
Stockholders Equity	2.81B	3.67B	2.67B	2.59B	2.49B	2.29B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	654.13M	984.48M	637.67M	662.85M	602.34M	576.84M
Operating Cash Flow	1.00B	1.37B	1.01B	1.03B	942.73M	840.99M
Investing Cash Flow	-488.33M	-505.65M	-1.18B	-810.26M	216.77M	-1.14B
Financing Cash Flow	-291.03M	-562.41M	-156.54M	-28.52M	-1.04B	316.89M

TFI International Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis SentimentNegative

Last Price134.14

Price Trends

50DMA171.70Negative

100DMA188.37Negative

200DMA178.91Negative

Market Momentum

MACD-6.65Positive

RSI19.51Positive

STOCH21.85Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TSE:TFII, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 134.14 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 158.95, below the 50-day MA of 171.70, and below the 200-day MA of 178.91, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -6.65 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 19.51 is Positive, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 21.85 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for TSE:TFII.

TFI International Peers Comparison

Overall Rating

UnderperformOutperform

Sector (63)

Financial Indicators

TSE:TFII against its peers
Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
TSE:EIF	77Outperform	CAD 6.28B	30.33	11.69%	2.44%	33.11%	40.81%
TSE:CJT	69Neutral	CAD 1.27B	29.14	6.30%	1.67%	0.80%	-66.47%
TSE:MTL	69Neutral	CAD 2.78B	22.30	10.58%	2.94%	11.69%	18.18%
TSE:WJX	68Neutral	CAD 729.44M	11.18	12.07%	4.15%	-4.10%	82.03%
Sector *	63Neutral	$10.79B	15.43	7.44%	2.01%	2.89%	-14.66%
TSE:TFII	57Neutral	CAD 10.69B	20.45	12.95%	1.96%	3.39%	12.07%

* Industrials Sector Average

Performance Comparison

TSE:TFII and its peers over the selected period
Ticker	Company Name	Price	Change	% Change
TSE:TFII	Tfi International Inc	134.16	9.99	8.04%
TSE:EIF	Exchange Income	114.34	38.97	51.71%
TSE:MTL	Mullen Group Ltd.	28.54	15.13	112.75%
TSE:WJX	Wajax Corporation	33.76	9.86	41.24%
TSE:CJT	Cargojet (OTC)	90.04	11.19	14.18%

Glossary

BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.

Date of analysis: Oct 31, 2026

TFI International AI Stock Analysis