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Peyto Exploration & Dev (PEY) AI Stock Analysis
Peyto Exploration & Dev
(TSX:PEY)
The score is driven primarily by strong financial performance (high margins, solid operating cash flow/free cash flow, and improving leverage) and supportive valuation (low P/E with a high dividend yield). Offsetting these positives are mixed/soft technical signals (price below key short-term moving averages and subdued momentum) and earnings-call risks tied to weaker forward gas pricing and potential volatility from accounting and market exposure, despite hedging and guidance reaffirmation.
Peyto Exploration & Dev (PEY) vs. iShares MSCI Canada ETF (EWC)
- Market Cap
- CAD 5.32B
- Dividend Yield
- 5.34%
- Average Volume (3M)
- 685.89K
- Price to Earnings (P/E)
- 10.6
- Beta (1Y)
- 0.19
- Revenue Growth
- 26.11%
- EPS Growth
- 45.27%
- Country
- Canada
- Employees
- 87
- Sector
- Energy
- Sector Strength
- 65
- Industry
- Oil & Gas Exploration & Production
Peyto Exploration & Dev Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Peyto Exploration & Development Corp., together with its subsidiaries, engages in the exploration, development, and production of natural gas, and oil and natural gas liquids in Alberta’s deep basin. The company was formerly known as Peyto Energy Tru...
How the Company Makes Money
Peyto primarily makes money by producing and selling hydrocarbons—mainly natural gas and, to a lesser extent, NGLs (e.g., propane, butane, condensate) and crude oil—into wholesale energy markets. Revenue is generated based on the volumes produced and...
Peyto Exploration & Dev Earnings Call Summary
The call presented a largely positive operating and financial performance: strong funds from operations ($228M), high operating margin (71%), restored low-cost structure ($1.04/Mcfe), meaningful drilling and completion cost improvements (37% per-meter in Brazeau; ~10% drill-side reduction in Sundance), increased liquids recovery (corporate liquids up 1 percentage point), accretive land additions, and increased dividend plus $72M net debt paydown. Key cautions include weaker forward gas strip prices, accounting-driven earnings volatility from the Centrica TTF embedded derivative (necessitating an 'adjusted earnings' metric), and some downstream market exposure in 2027–2028. Overall, highlights materially outweigh the lowlights, though management remains prudently cautious on capital allocation due to market uncertainty.
Q2-2026 Updates
Positive Updates
Negative Updates
Company Guidance
Peyto reaffirmed 2026 guidance of $450–$500 million of capital spending and drilling 70–80 net wells while running four rigs for the remainder of the year and shifting activity toward more liquid‑rich Cardium and Falher targets. The company said it is “well protected” with just over 500 MMcf/d hedged at >$4/Mcf for the rest of 2026 and roughly 400 MMcf/d secured for 2027 at about $3.30/Mcf, and it has ~400 MMcf/d of non‑AECO diversified volumes contracted for 2028+, including a Centrica supply agreement (50,000 MMBtu at NIT starting in 2029). Combined gas and liquids hedges and contracts secure roughly $485 million of revenue for the remainder of 2026 and about $590 million for 2027; management emphasized the program is supported by low controllable cash costs ($1.04/Mcfe) and a 71% operating margin.
Peyto Exploration & Dev Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Strong profitability and cash generation in TTM (net margin ~41%, operating cash flow ~$959M, free cash flow ~$457M). Balance sheet leverage is moderate and improving (debt-to-equity ~0.35; ROE ~17%). Main risk is cyclical, with historically choppy revenue and meaningful absolute debt (~$1.06B) that could pressure results in a weaker commodity environment.
Income Statement
82Very PositiveBalance Sheet
74PositiveCash Flow
78Positive| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 1.24B | 1.10B | 908.25M | 1.01B | 1.63B | 911.98M |
| Gross Profit | 721.97M | 649.27M | 421.22M | 595.15M | 1.07B | 575.60M |
| EBITDA | 1.06B | 994.64M | 836.96M | 758.26M | 866.71M | 513.73M |
| Net Income | 493.99M | 418.59M | 280.57M | 292.63M | 390.66M | 152.25M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 5.54B | 5.46B | 5.51B | 5.51B | 4.01B | 3.78B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 62.98M | 51.06M | 13.63M | 37.18M | 11.90M | 5.72M |
| Total Debt | 1.06B | 1.18B | 1.36B | 1.40B | 864.52M | 1.07B |
| Total Liabilities | 2.49B | 2.61B | 2.81B | 2.79B | 1.95B | 2.02B |
| Stockholders Equity | 3.04B | 2.85B | 2.70B | 2.71B | 2.06B | 1.77B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 457.09M | 384.13M | 215.49M | 233.84M | 304.92M | 92.82M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 958.74M | 857.48M | 672.36M | 644.87M | 811.78M | 457.87M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -502.16M | -452.45M | -432.24M | -1.15B | -516.91M | -351.43M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -425.29M | -367.60M | -263.66M | 527.27M | -288.68M | -110.03M |
Peyto Exploration & Dev Technical Analysis
Price Trends
Market Momentum
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TSE:PEY, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 25.85 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 24.82, above the 50-day MA of 24.45, and above the 200-day MA of 24.64, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.42 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 69.92 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 71.85 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for TSE:PEY.
Peyto Exploration & Dev Peers Comparison
Overall Rating
TSE:ATH73Outperform- TSE:PEY73Outperform
TSE:BTE71Outperform
TSE:TVE68Neutral
TSE:POU60Neutral
Financial Indicators
| Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TSE:ATH | 73Outperform | CAD 5.81B | 24.39 | 12.76% | ― | 2.54% | -45.29% |
| TSE:PEY | 73Outperform | CAD 5.33B | 10.64 | 16.96% | 5.34% | 26.11% | 45.27% |
| TSE:BTE | 71Outperform | CAD 5.26B | -8.18 | -26.39% | 1.20% | ― | ― |
| TSE:TVE | 68Neutral | CAD 6.65B | 18.02 | 20.30% | 1.29% | 10.65% | ― |
| Sector * | 65Neutral | $15.17B | 7.61 | 4.09% | 5.20% | 3.87% | -62.32% |
| TSE:POU | 60Neutral | CAD 5.11B | 43.12 | 4.30% | 1.72% | -28.28% | -92.06% |
* Energy Sector Average
Performance Comparison
| Show on chart | Ticker | Company Name | Price | Change | % Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TSE:PEY | Peyto Exploration & Dev | 25.85 | 6.26 | 31.93% | |
| TSE:BTE | Baytex Energy Corp. | 7.52 | 4.22 | 128.16% | |
| TSE:ATH | Athabasca Oil Corporation | 12.00 | 4.95 | 70.21% | |
| TSE:POU | Paramount Resources Ltd | 34.96 | 12.51 | 55.74% | |
| TSE:TVE | Tamarack Valley Energy Ltd | 14.09 | 7.92 | 128.22% |
Peyto Exploration & Dev Corporate Events
Peyto Confirms August 2026 Monthly Dividend and Highlights Investor Disclosure
PositivePeyto Exploration & Development Corp. is a Calgary-based energy company listed on the Toronto Stock Exchange that focuses on natural gas exploration and development in North America. It positions itself as one of the region’s more dynamic e...
Peyto Boosts Q2 Output, Cash Flow and Diversifies Gas Sales With Long‑Term Deal
PositivePeyto reported a strong second quarter of 2026, with production rising 10% year over year to 145,320 boe/d and funds from operations climbing to $227.7 million, supported by industry-leading low cash costs and improved realized gas prices. Despite we...
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.
Date of analysis: Aug 17, 2026