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Orion Digital (TSE:ORIO)
TSX:ORIO
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Orion Digital (ORIO) AI Stock Analysis

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TSE:ORIO

Orion Digital

(TSX:ORIO)

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Neutral 59 (OpenAI - Gpt-5.6Sol)
Rating:59Neutral
Price Target:
C$1.50
â–²(1.35% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:08/29/26
The score reflects improving operating momentum and guidance from the latest earnings update, reinforced by a strong technical uptrend. However, it is held back most by weak financial performance metrics (contracting revenue and still-significant TTM losses) and elevated leverage, while valuation support is limited due to negative earnings and no dividend yield.
Positive Factors
Improving profitability
The sharp EBITDA improvement and higher margin indicate that operating leverage and cost discipline are beginning to translate into stronger earnings. If maintained, this progress can improve internal funding capacity and support a more durable path toward sustained profitability.
Negative Factors
Contracting revenue
Falling revenue indicates that stronger margins and EBITDA have not yet been matched by durable top-line expansion. Continued contraction could limit operating leverage, constrain investment capacity, and make future profitability more dependent on cost controls rather than business growth.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Improving profitability
The sharp EBITDA improvement and higher margin indicate that operating leverage and cost discipline are beginning to translate into stronger earnings. If maintained, this progress can improve internal funding capacity and support a more durable path toward sustained profitability.
Read all positive factors

Orion Digital (ORIO) vs. iShares MSCI Canada ETF (EWC)

Orion Digital Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description
Orion Digital Corp., a financial technology company based in Vancouver, Canada, delivers its services across Canada, Europe, and internationally. The firm's primary mission is to offer digital solutions that guide its members toward improved wealt...

Orion Digital Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Aug 06, 2026
(Q2-2026)
|
% Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Nov 11, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call highlighted meaningful improvement in profitability and cash generation driven by wealth growth, margin expansion and disciplined cost management, alongside the commercial launch of an AI-enabled investing product. Offsetting risks include flat consolidated revenue, declines in payments and interest revenue due to deliberate reduced lending deployment, expected second-half moderation in EBITDA as lending and commercialization spend ramps, and a NASDAQ minimum bid price notice. On balance, the positive financial momentum, clear capital allocation discipline, and product commercialization progress outweigh the near-term revenue headwinds and market-listing risk.
Positive Updates
Large Adjusted EBITDA Improvement
Consolidated adjusted EBITDA of $3.3M, up 115% sequentially and 70% year-over-year; adjusted EBITDA margin expanded to 19.5%.
Negative Updates
Flat Consolidated Revenue
Total revenue was $16.9M in the quarter, essentially unchanged year-over-year (flat), reflecting offsetting trends across segments.
Read all updates
Q2-2026 Updates
Negative
Large Adjusted EBITDA Improvement
Consolidated adjusted EBITDA of $3.3M, up 115% sequentially and 70% year-over-year; adjusted EBITDA margin expanded to 19.5%.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Orion reiterated its Q1 guidance and said it now expects full‑year adjusted EBITDA to be at the upper end of or exceed the previously communicated $6–$7 million range, while warning second‑half adjusted EBITDA will likely moderate as lending originations and commercialization spending ramp; Q2 results that support this outlook included adjusted EBITDA of $3.3 million (up 115% sequentially and 70% YoY) with a 19.5% margin, revenue of $16.9 million, wealth revenue of $4.1 million (up 14%) and AUM/client assets of $545.3 million (up 18%), gross margin of 75%, operating income of $1.3 million, gross loan receivables of $75.4 million with a $49.8 million lending credit facility, payments revenue of $2.4 million (down 9%), European transaction volume of $2.8 billion, interest revenue down 3%, cash from operations of $2.7 million (core operating cash generation $5.1 million), about $900k invested in platform growth and $1.65 million into loans, ~$1.6 million repaid on the lending facility plus just over $500k of debentures repaid, ending cash of ~$25.1 million (down ~$0.5 million), and a lending return framework targeting ~18–24 months.

Orion Digital Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Overall fundamentals are mixed. Revenue is shrinking (TTM down ~11.6%) and profitability remains weak with a deeply negative TTM net margin (~-24.9%), despite strong gross margins (~72%). Balance-sheet risk is elevated as leverage has risen (debt-to-equity ~1.24x) and ROE is negative (~-23.7%). Offsetting this, cash flow has turned meaningfully positive (TTM operating cash flow ~14.3M; free cash flow ~13.3M), though cash generation is still modest versus debt (OCF coverage ~0.22).
Income Statement
38
Negative
Balance Sheet
46
Neutral
Cash Flow
62
Positive
BreakdownTTMDec 2025Dec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue67.20M68.11M71.15M65.22M68.95M40.78M
Gross Profit48.41M49.74M56.62M41.47M46.24M46.04M
EBITDA-1.53M8.59M7.13M-2.20M-22.51M-4.46M
Net Income-16.73M-8.54M-13.68M-17.89M-165.68M-33.21M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets162.44M173.63M189.65M207.76M221.49M393.87M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments23.27M17.70M34.62M16.13M29.27M69.21M
Total Debt81.55M84.62M85.62M88.90M87.73M88.72M
Total Liabilities96.69M101.31M108.43M114.04M110.61M124.09M
Stockholders Equity65.75M72.32M81.22M93.72M110.89M269.78M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow13.29M19.47M-1.35M-12.59M-34.95M-37.61M
Operating Cash Flow14.31M19.52M-1.27M-9.17M-27.01M-29.64M
Investing Cash Flow1.27M-8.81M-2.79M-3.09M-9.15M-39.59M
Financing Cash Flow-2.34M-1.52M-3.52M-861.00K-3.08M125.86M

Orion Digital Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Positive
Last Price1.48
Price Trends
50DMA
1.12
Positive
100DMA
1.24
Positive
200DMA
1.40
Positive
Market Momentum
MACD
0.07
Negative
RSI
72.30
Negative
STOCH
66.74
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TSE:ORIO, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 1.48 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 1.14, above the 50-day MA of 1.12, and above the 200-day MA of 1.40, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.07 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 72.30 is Negative, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 66.74 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for TSE:ORIO.

Orion Digital Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
61
Neutral
$37.18B12.37-10.20%1.83%8.50%-7.62%
* Technology Sector Average
Performance Comparison

Orion Digital Corporate Events

Business Operations and StrategyFinancial DisclosuresProduct-Related Announcements
Orion Digital Boosts Profitability as Wealth AUM Climbs and Intelligent Investing Launches
Positive
Aug 6, 2026
Orion Digital reported second-quarter 2026 results that highlight a stronger earnings profile as it rebalances its lending exposure and leans more heavily on wealth management and payments. Adjusted EBITDA rose 115% sequentially and 70% year-over-...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Aug 29, 2026