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Orion Digital
(TSX:ORIO)
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Rating:57Neutral
Price Target:
C$1.50
â–²(1.35% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:09/10/26
The score is primarily held back by weak financial performance (shrinking revenue, significant net losses, and elevated leverage) despite a clear cash-flow improvement and strong gross margins. Technicals are a key positive with strong trend and momentum, while valuation is constrained by the negative P/E and no dividend. The latest earnings call adds support via improved profitability and raised EBITDA outlook, tempered by expected second-half moderation and NASDAQ bid-price risk.
Positive Factors
Improving Profitability
The sharp improvement in adjusted EBITDA and margin indicates that operating performance can strengthen as cost discipline and business mix improve. Management’s expectation that full-year EBITDA will meet or exceed the prior $6–$7 million range supports the durability of this profitability trend.
Negative Factors
Contracting Revenue
A sustained decline in revenue indicates that the company has not yet established consistent top-line expansion across its businesses. Contracting sales can constrain operating leverage, limit investment capacity and make it harder for improved margins to translate into durable earnings growth.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Improving Profitability
The sharp improvement in adjusted EBITDA and margin indicates that operating performance can strengthen as cost discipline and business mix improve. Management’s expectation that full-year EBITDA will meet or exceed the prior $6–$7 million range supports the durability of this profitability trend.
Read all positive factors
Orion Digital (ORIO) vs. iShares MSCI Canada ETF (EWC)
Market Cap
C$29.73M
Dividend Yield0.69%
Average Volume (3M)23.06K
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)2.30
Revenue Growth-4.57%
EPS Growth-522.25%
CountryCA
Employees188
SectorTechnology
Sector Strength88
IndustrySoftware - Infrastructure
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)-0.70
Shares Outstanding23,781,000
10 Day Avg. Volume24,595
30 Day Avg. Volume23,057
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.11
Price to Book (P/B)0.50
Price to Sales (P/S)0.53
P/FCF Ratio1.84
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price TargetN/A
Price Target UpsideN/A
Rating ConsensusN/A
Number of Analyst Covering0
EPS Forecast (FY)-0.08
Revenue Forecast (FY)C$67.00M
Orion Digital Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Orion Digital Corp., a financial technology company based in Vancouver, Canada, delivers its services across Canada, Europe, and internationally. The firm's primary mission is to offer digital solutions that guide its members toward improved wealt...
Orion Digital Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Aug 06, 2026
(Q2-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Nov 11, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call highlighted meaningful improvement in profitability and cash generation driven by wealth growth, margin expansion and disciplined cost management, alongside the commercial launch of an AI-enabled investing product. Offsetting risks include flat consolidated revenue, declines in payments and interest revenue due to deliberate reduced lending deployment, expected second-half moderation in EBITDA as lending and commercialization spend ramps, and a NASDAQ minimum bid price notice. On balance, the positive financial momentum, clear capital allocation discipline, and product commercialization progress outweigh the near-term revenue headwinds and market-listing risk.Positive Updates
Large Adjusted EBITDA Improvement
Consolidated adjusted EBITDA of $3.3M, up 115% sequentially and 70% year-over-year; adjusted EBITDA margin expanded to 19.5%.
Negative Updates
Flat Consolidated Revenue
Total revenue was $16.9M in the quarter, essentially unchanged year-over-year (flat), reflecting offsetting trends across segments.
Read all updates
Q2-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Large Adjusted EBITDA Improvement
Consolidated adjusted EBITDA of $3.3M, up 115% sequentially and 70% year-over-year; adjusted EBITDA margin expanded to 19.5%.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Orion reiterated its Q1 guidance and said it now expects full‑year adjusted EBITDA to be at the upper end of or exceed the previously communicated $6–$7 million range, while warning second‑half adjusted EBITDA will likely moderate as lending originations and commercialization spending ramp; Q2 results that support this outlook included adjusted EBITDA of $3.3 million (up 115% sequentially and 70% YoY) with a 19.5% margin, revenue of $16.9 million, wealth revenue of $4.1 million (up 14%) and AUM/client assets of $545.3 million (up 18%), gross margin of 75%, operating income of $1.3 million, gross loan receivables of $75.4 million with a $49.8 million lending credit facility, payments revenue of $2.4 million (down 9%), European transaction volume of $2.8 billion, interest revenue down 3%, cash from operations of $2.7 million (core operating cash generation $5.1 million), about $900k invested in platform growth and $1.65 million into loans, ~$1.6 million repaid on the lending facility plus just over $500k of debentures repaid, ending cash of ~$25.1 million (down ~$0.5 million), and a lending return framework targeting ~18–24 months.Orion Digital Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
38
Negative
Balance Sheet
46
Neutral
Cash Flow
62
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 67.20M | 68.11M | 71.15M | 65.22M | 68.95M | 40.78M |
| Gross Profit | 48.41M | 49.74M | 56.62M | 41.47M | 46.24M | 46.04M |
| EBITDA | -1.53M | 8.59M | 7.13M | -2.20M | -22.51M | -4.46M |
| Net Income | -16.73M | -8.54M | -13.68M | -17.89M | -165.68M | -33.21M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 162.44M | 173.63M | 189.65M | 207.76M | 221.49M | 393.87M |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 23.27M | 17.70M | 34.62M | 16.13M | 29.27M | 69.21M |
| Total Debt | 81.55M | 84.62M | 85.62M | 88.90M | 87.73M | 88.72M |
| Total Liabilities | 96.69M | 101.31M | 108.43M | 114.04M | 110.61M | 124.09M |
| Stockholders Equity | 65.75M | 72.32M | 81.22M | 93.72M | 110.89M | 269.78M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 13.29M | 19.47M | -1.35M | -12.59M | -34.95M | -37.61M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 14.31M | 19.52M | -1.27M | -9.17M | -27.01M | -29.64M |
| Investing Cash Flow | 1.27M | -8.81M | -2.79M | -3.09M | -9.15M | -39.59M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -2.34M | -1.52M | -3.52M | -861.00K | -3.08M | 125.86M |
Orion Digital Technical Analysis
Negative
1.48
Price Trends
1.37
Negative
1.25
Negative
1.36
Negative
Market Momentum
-0.05
Positive
38.75
Neutral
12.94
Positive
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TSE:ORIO, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 1.48 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 1.36, above the 50-day MA of 1.37, and above the 200-day MA of 1.36, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.05 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 38.75 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 12.94 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for TSE:ORIO.
Orion Digital Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
61 Neutral | $37.18B | 12.37 | -10.20% | 1.83% | 8.50% | -7.62% |
* Technology Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Orion Digital Corporate Events
Delistings and Listing ChangesRegulatory Filings and Compliance
Orion Digital Restores Nasdaq Bid Price Compliance, Securing U.S. Listing
Positive
Sep 28, 2026
Orion Digital Corp., a fintech company specializing in AI-driven wealth management, payments infrastructure, and consumer finance, operates through its Intelligent Investing, Carta Worldwide, and Mogo platforms. The group serves Canadian wealth cl...
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial DisclosuresProduct-Related Announcements
Orion Digital Boosts Profitability as Wealth AUM Climbs and Intelligent Investing Launches
Positive
Aug 6, 2026
Orion Digital reported second-quarter 2026 results that highlight a stronger earnings profile as it rebalances its lending exposure and leans more heavily on wealth management and payments. Adjusted EBITDA rose 115% sequentially and 70% year-over-...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.