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National Bank of Canada
(TSX:NA)
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Rating:65Neutral
Price Target:
C$229.00
â–²(2.91% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:08/28/26
The score is driven primarily by solid and improving fundamentals (strong TTM growth, profitability, and cash generation) and a generally positive earnings-call outlook (strong ROE/earnings momentum and synergy execution). These positives are tempered by weak near-term technical momentum (below key moving averages, negative MACD, low RSI) and only moderate valuation support (P/E ~18.6 with a ~2.34% dividend yield).
Positive Factors
Strong revenue and earnings growth
Double-digit revenue and EPS growth indicates broad-based momentum across fee businesses and the balance sheet. If sustained, this scale can support stronger earnings power and reinforce the bank’s competitive position across Canadian financial services.
Negative Factors
Persistent P&C margin pressure
Mortgage competition and deposit-mix effects can structurally constrain personal and commercial banking spreads. Even with strong loan growth, weaker margins may limit conversion of balance-sheet expansion into sustainable net interest income.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Strong revenue and earnings growth
Double-digit revenue and EPS growth indicates broad-based momentum across fee businesses and the balance sheet. If sustained, this scale can support stronger earnings power and reinforce the bank’s competitive position across Canadian financial services.
Read all positive factors
National Bank of Canada (NA) vs. iShares MSCI Canada ETF (EWC)
Market Cap
C$84.39B
Dividend Yield2.29%
Average Volume (3M)1.33M
Price to Earnings (P/E)18.0
Beta (1Y)0.78
Revenue Growth7.97%
EPS Growth17.60%
CountryCA
Employees34,816
SectorFinancial
Sector Strength70
IndustryBanks - Diversified
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)12.11
Shares Outstanding387,257,930
10 Day Avg. Volume1,803,162
30 Day Avg. Volume1,328,674
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-2.77
Price to Book (P/B)1.76
Price to Sales (P/S)1.93
P/FCF Ratio14.35
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price Target
C$227.67Price Target Upside2.31% Upside
Rating ConsensusHold
Number of Analyst Covering9
EPS Forecast (FY)13.15
Revenue Forecast (FY)C$15.84B
National Bank of Canada Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
National Bank of Canada provides financial services to individuals, businesses, institutional clients, and governments in Canada and internationally. It operates through four segments: Personal and Commercial, Wealth Management, Financial Markets,...
How the Company Makes Money
National Bank of Canada makes money primarily through a mix of net interest income and non-interest income generated across its main business lines.
1) Net interest income (lending spread)
- The bank earns interest income from loans and credit pr...
National Bank of Canada Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Aug 26, 2026
(Q3-2026)
| Next Earnings Date:Dec 02, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call presented strong core operating momentum: double-digit revenue growth, substantial EPS upside (+26% YoY), robust segment performances (capital markets and wealth), healthy loan/deposit growth, positive operating leverage, meaningful synergy capture from the CWB acquisition, and a solid capital and provisioning position. Offsetting items include margin pressure in personal & commercial banking (driven by rapid mortgage growth and deposit mix), above-trend expense growth (variable compensation and investments), a deferred and moderated AIRB capital benefit, and some isolated credit lumpiness (notably an oil & gas provision). On balance, the positives significantly outweigh the challenges, though key execution areas to watch include margin management, expense control, and the successful completion of the AIRB transition.Positive Updates
Strong EPS and Revenue Growth
EPS of $3.39 in Q3 FY26, up 26% year-over-year; Revenues increased 18% year-over-year, driven by fee-based businesses and balance sheet growth.
Negative Updates
P&C Banking Margin Compression
P&C banking margin declined 7 basis points quarter-over-quarter (driven by strong mortgage growth and commercial deposit mix/seasonal government inflows); management notes continued competitive pressure on mortgage spreads.
Read all updates
Q3-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Strong EPS and Revenue Growth
EPS of $3.39 in Q3 FY26, up 26% year-over-year; Revenues increased 18% year-over-year, driven by fee-based businesses and balance sheet growth.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Guidance highlights: management expects Q4 P&C margin to remain roughly at Q3 levels (P&C margin down 7 bps q/q in Q3) and all‑bank NIM to be relatively stable in Q4 (all‑bank NIM 2.18%, +2 bps q/q; NII excluding trading +7% q/q), with positive operating leverage for the full year and expense growth moderating in Q4 (PTPP +24% y/y, operating leverage 5.8%; expenses +11.7% y/y, ex‑variable comp/litigation +7.7%). Credit guidance for fiscal 2026 remains impaired provisions of 25–35 bps (Q3 total PCL $240M / 31 bps; PCL on impaired loans $224M / 28 bps; performing provision +3 bps in Q3); allowances totaled $2.7B (5.3x net charge‑offs) with performing allowances $1.7B (2x). Capital and capital‑deployment guidance: CET1 was 13.51% (capital generation +41 bps in Q3; RWA expansion −19 bps; organic RWA growth consumed 35 bps; refinements +15 bps; Q3 repurchases 2.3M shares reduced CET1 by 26 bps), with ~20 bps of additional CET1 expected from refinements in Q4‑26, AIRB benefits now expected to materialize late‑2027 toward the lower end of the prior 35–55 bps range, a new NCIB to be launched on expiry in Sept‑26, and a CET1 convergence target of ~13% by end‑2027; the bank remains on track to exceed its 16% FY26 ROE target (YTD ROE 16.7%, YTD EPS +16.8%) and to achieve 17%+ ROE by 2027. Operationally, CWB synergies of $238M have been realized to date (on track to $270M by end‑26, ~ $300M annualized) with $52M of revenue synergies already captured and a $200–250M revenue synergy target by end‑28; dividend payout is currently 38.8% and will be reviewed next quarter.National Bank of Canada Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
78
Positive
Balance Sheet
64
Positive
Cash Flow
71
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Oct 2025 | Oct 2024 | Oct 2023 | Oct 2022 | Oct 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 32.54B | 30.80B | 10.83B | 9.77B | 9.62B | 8.90B |
| Gross Profit | 14.56B | 13.01B | 10.84B | 10.16B | 9.62B | 8.90B |
| EBITDA | 6.79B | 5.79B | 5.06B | 4.43B | 4.73B | 4.46B |
| Net Income | 4.85B | 4.02B | 3.82B | 3.34B | 3.38B | 3.14B |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 635.16B | 576.92B | 462.23B | 423.58B | 403.74B | 355.62B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 47.76B | 33.20B | 35.75B | 39.14B | 36.34B | 36.81B |
| Total Debt | 102.67B | 149.84B | 74.78B | 53.51B | 44.88B | 43.64B |
| Total Liabilities | 600.49B | 543.15B | 436.68B | 399.90B | 381.99B | 336.94B |
| Stockholders Equity | 34.67B | 33.77B | 25.55B | 23.68B | 21.74B | 18.68B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 6.09B | 4.13B | 3.95B | 4.51B | -2.59B | 5.55B |
| Operating Cash Flow | 6.41B | 4.63B | 4.65B | 5.17B | -1.92B | 9.31B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -42.80B | -7.08B | -7.34B | -80.00M | -1.46B | 1.39B |
| Financing Cash Flow | 54.34B | -1.18B | -1.10B | 19.51B | -381.00M | -1.74B |
National Bank of Canada Technical Analysis
Positive
222.53
Price Trends
224.34
Negative
215.20
Positive
194.23
Positive
Market Momentum
-2.91
Positive
47.03
Neutral
57.47
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TSE:NA, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 222.53 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 220.43, below the 50-day MA of 224.34, and above the 200-day MA of 194.23, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -2.91 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 47.03 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 57.47 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for TSE:NA.
National Bank of Canada Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (68)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
70 Outperform | C$150.81B | 15.51 | 15.44% | 2.57% | 0.14% | 26.17% | |
70 Outperform | C$404.17B | 18.33 | 16.11% | 2.26% | 4.67% | 19.97% | |
68 Neutral | C$159.80B | 16.79 | 11.41% | 3.42% | -3.29% | 43.84% | |
68 Neutral | $18.00B | 11.42 | 9.92% | 3.81% | 9.73% | 1.22% | |
65 Neutral | C$84.39B | 17.99 | 14.36% | 2.29% | 7.97% | 17.60% | |
64 Neutral | C$169.24B | 19.74 | 10.58% | 2.75% | -1.74% | 7.63% | |
61 Neutral | C$284.24B | 17.97 | 12.83% | 2.57% | -10.53% | -20.00% |
* Financial Sector Average
TSE:NA
National Bank of Canada
217.91
76.04
53.60%
TSE:BMO
Bank Of Montreal
242.76
73.10
43.09%
TSE:BNS
Bank Of Nova Scotia
129.65
45.11
53.36%
TSE:CM
Canadian Bank of Commerce
162.75
58.24
55.73%
TSE:RY
Royal Bank Of Canada
291.48
97.10
49.95%
TSE:TD
Toronto Dominion Bank
168.24
68.28
68.31%
National Bank of Canada Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
National Bank of Canada posts 23% profit jump in third quarter
Positive
Aug 26, 2026
National Bank of Canada reported a 23% year-over-year rise in third-quarter net income to $1.31 billion, driven by strong performance across all business segments and higher contributions from its acquisition of Canadian Western Bank. Diluted earn...
Business Operations and Strategy
National Bank of Canada Hikes Rate on $500 Million NVCC Capital Notes
Neutral
Aug 14, 2026
National Bank of Canada has reset the interest rate on its $500 million Limited Recourse Capital Notes, Series 2, a form of NVCC subordinated indebtedness, for the next five-year term beginning August 15, 2026. The rate will rise from 4.05% to 6.2...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.