Want to see TSE:MX full AI Analyst Report?
Top Page
Methanex
(TSX:MX)
Select Model
Select Model
Rating:63Neutral
Price Target:
C$85.00
▲(7.53% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:08/19/26
The score is driven primarily by mixed financial performance: strong cash generation and recovering revenue are offset by sharply weaker margins and negative profitability with meaningful leverage. Technical indicators are moderately supportive, but valuation is a notable headwind given the high P/E and modest yield. Earnings-call guidance and commentary were balanced—strong recent results and deleveraging progress, tempered by lower near-term pricing and elevated logistics and market uncertainty risks.
Positive Factors
Revenue recovery and cash generation
Revenue recovery and strong free cash flow show that Methanex can convert its global production and marketing platform into substantial liquidity, supporting debt reduction, maintenance investment and resilience through methanol cycles.
Negative Factors
Sharp margin and profitability deterioration
The deterioration shows that higher revenue is not translating into durable earnings power. Methanol price and feedstock sensitivity leave profits exposed to cyclicality, while weaker margins can limit cash available for investment and deleveraging.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Revenue recovery and cash generation
Revenue recovery and strong free cash flow show that Methanex can convert its global production and marketing platform into substantial liquidity, supporting debt reduction, maintenance investment and resilience through methanol cycles.
Read all positive factors
Methanex (MX) vs. iShares MSCI Canada ETF (EWC)
Market Cap
C$6.20B
Dividend Yield1.27%
Average Volume (3M)276.92K
Price to Earnings (P/E)51.5
Beta (1Y)0.79
Revenue Growth18.11%
EPS Growth-70.04%
CountryCA
Employees1,649
SectorBasic Materials
Sector Strength58
IndustryChemicals
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)1.13
Shares Outstanding77,364,265
10 Day Avg. Volume248,875
30 Day Avg. Volume276,919
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-0.66
Price to Book (P/B)1.18
Price to Sales (P/S)0.79
P/FCF Ratio3.93
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price Target
C$98.30Price Target Upside24.36% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering8
EPS Forecast (FY)12.91
Revenue Forecast (FY)C$6.72B
Methanex Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Methanex Corporation, established in 1968 and headquartered in Vancouver, Canada, stands as a leading global manufacturer and provider of methanol. Its extensive operations cover North America, the Asia Pacific region, Europe, and South America. B...
How the Company Makes Money
Methanex makes money primarily by producing and selling methanol. Revenue is generated from (1) sales of methanol produced at its own manufacturing sites and sold into global end markets and (2) marketing and distribution activities that place met...
Methanex Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Jul 28, 2026
(Q2-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Oct 28, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call conveyed strong operational and financial performance in Q2 — record North American production, robust adjusted EBITDA and net income, repayment of key debt and healthy cash — alongside active integration and synergy delivery. However, material near‑term risks were emphasized: indefinite idling and impairment at Trinidad, sharply higher shipping costs, a working capital build, and substantial market uncertainty from Middle East supply disruptions that have drawn inventories down and may require demand rationalization. On balance, the company's results and balance‑sheet actions are positive, but continued macro and regional supply risks create meaningful downside if the conflict and logistics issues persist.Positive Updates
Strong Q2 Financial Performance
Average realized price of $529/tonne, produced sales ~2.2 million tonnes, adjusted EBITDA of $577 million and adjusted net income of $300 million for Q2 2026.
Negative Updates
Idling of Titan (Trinidad & Tobago) and restructuring charges
Announced indefinite idling of the Titan plant after failing to secure a commercially viable gas contract; recorded a $115 million non‑cash after‑tax asset impairment charge and a $12 million accrual for restructuring activities related to Trinidad.
Read all updates
Q2-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Strong Q2 Financial Performance
Average realized price of $529/tonne, produced sales ~2.2 million tonnes, adjusted EBITDA of $577 million and adjusted net income of $300 million for Q2 2026.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
On the call Methanex guided to 2026 equity production of approximately 9.0 million tonnes (quarterly variability possible), gave a July–August average realized price range of about $460–$485/ton (versus Q2’s $529/ton), and said that assuming similar produced sales to Q2 (~2.2 million tonnes) and those prices hold through September they expect a strong Q3 but with earnings lower than Q2; Q2 results were: ~2.2 mt produced/sold, adjusted EBITDA $577 million (which included a $12 million restructuring accrual), adjusted net income $300 million, cash on hand >$380 million, a $115 million after‑tax non‑cash impairment and $12 million restructuring accrual for Titan, and repayment of the remaining $290 million on Term Loan A. They reiterated capital allocation priorities of directing the majority of free cash flow to cash build and debt reduction (approaching an initial ~3.0x adjusted debt/EBITDA target and ultimately targeting ~2.0–2.5x at mid‑cycle), may consider modest buybacks as progress is made, and flagged other metrics/assumptions including a ~25% tax rate (~50% cash tax), an annualized ~$500 million difference between EBITDA and operating cash flow (leases, interest, capex, cash taxes), a Q2 working‑capital build of ~ $150 million, shipping headwinds of roughly $30–$40 million versus plan (about $18 million already in Q2) and bunker costs up ~40%, and broader market strain from an estimated 15–20 million tonnes of Middle East supply affected (about one‑third released in Q2) with China coastal inventories down to ~500k tonnes.Methanex Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
58
Neutral
Balance Sheet
55
Neutral
Cash Flow
72
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 4.27B | 3.65B | 3.72B | 3.72B | 4.31B | 4.41B |
| Gross Profit | 981.54M | 1.30B | 710.42M | 655.40M | 865.09M | 1.08B |
| EBITDA | 1.20B | 925.00M | 798.42M | 794.81M | 983.03M | 1.08B |
| Net Income | 87.32M | 81.27M | 163.99M | 174.14M | 353.83M | 482.36M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 7.17B | 7.27B | 6.60B | 6.43B | 6.63B | 6.09B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 382.29M | 428.05M | 891.91M | 458.01M | 857.75M | 932.07M |
| Total Debt | 3.13B | 3.50B | 3.23B | 3.01B | 3.02B | 2.88B |
| Total Liabilities | 4.29B | 4.55B | 4.22B | 4.25B | 4.20B | 4.13B |
| Stockholders Equity | 2.56B | 2.44B | 2.09B | 1.93B | 2.11B | 1.68B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 699.80M | 731.56M | 563.11M | 211.82M | 400.38M | 748.49M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 757.41M | 832.29M | 737.18M | 660.27M | 977.76M | 993.93M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -30.43M | -1.38B | -99.74M | -508.58M | -553.14M | -253.05M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -825.56M | 73.09M | -203.55M | -551.42M | -508.53M | -643.09M |
Methanex Technical Analysis
Positive
79.05
Price Trends
74.75
Positive
78.72
Positive
71.08
Positive
Market Momentum
1.36
Negative
55.20
Neutral
39.31
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TSE:MX, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 79.05 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 77.98, above the 50-day MA of 74.75, and above the 200-day MA of 71.08, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 1.36 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 55.20 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 39.31 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for TSE:MX.
Methanex Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
78 Outperform | C$1.70B | 11.39 | 19.27% | 4.28% | 12.36% | 20.53% | |
63 Neutral | C$6.20B | 51.51 | 3.54% | 1.30% | 18.11% | -70.04% | |
61 Neutral | $10.43B | 7.12 | -0.05% | 2.87% | 2.86% | -36.73% | |
59 Neutral | C$477.21M | 6.51 | 11.79% | ― | 10.52% | -53.33% |
* Basic Materials Sector Average
TSE:MX
Methanex
81.56
33.57
69.97%
TSE:CHE.UN
Chemtrade Logistics
15.23
2.77
22.27%
TSE:IFOS
Itafos
2.46
-0.44
-15.17%
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.