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Linamar Corp. (TSE:LNR)
TSX:LNR

Linamar (LNR) AI Stock Analysis

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Linamar

(TSX:LNR)

74Outperform
Linamar's overall stock score reflects its strong revenue growth, robust cash flow generation, and fair valuation. However, challenges such as declining sales in key segments and market uncertainties in Europe weigh on its performance. The company's technical indicators and earnings call sentiments indicate a mixed outlook, balancing resilience with significant pressures.
Positive Factors
Capital Allocation
Management is signaling a more consistent capital allocation framework going forward, which is seen as a positive move.
Mobility Margin
Mobility margin is expected to expand into the normal 7–10% range, driven by improving contributions from recent launches and cost actions.
Share Buyback
A larger-than-expected NCIB was a positive surprise, potentially purchasing up to 6.5% of total shares outstanding over the next year.
Negative Factors
European Assets Impairment
A $389mm impairment was recognized on European assets due to structural challenges in the region.
Industrial Segment
The share price upside may be dampened until there is more clarity on the Industrial segment where 2025 guidance was lowered.
Target Price Adjustment
Target price lowered to $65 from $75, reflecting continued tariff uncertainty.

Linamar (LNR) vs. S&P 500 (SPY)

Linamar Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionLinamar Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, design, develop, and produce engineered products in Canada, North America, Europe, and the Asia Pacific. It operates through two segments, Mobility and Industrial. The Mobility segment engages in the design, development, and manufacture of precision metallic components, modules, and systems for vehicle and power generation markets. It manufactures precision-machined components and assemblies that are used in transmissions, engines, and driveline systems; driveline systems, such as power transfer units, rear-drive units, and engineered gears; and engine components, including cylinder blocks and assemblies, cylinder heads and complete head assemblies, camshaft assemblies, connecting rods, flywheels, fuel rails, and fuel body/pumps. This segment also offers transmission cases, shafts, shaft and shell assemblies, clutch modules and clutch subcomponents, valve bodies, pumps, planetary gear assemblies, and housings/covers. It serves automotive original equipment manufacturers and commercial vehicle customers. The Industrial segment designs and produces mobile products, such as compact and rough terrain scissor lifts, vertical mast lifts, booms, and telehandlers primarily to construction equipment rental companies. This segment also offers harvesting equipment, including combine grain header attachments, self-propelled windrowers, pick-up headers, and hay products; and combine corn header attachments. Linamar Corporation has a strategic alliance with Ballard Power Systems Inc. for the co-development and sale of fuel cell powertrains and components for class 1 and 2 vehicles in North America and Europe. Linamar Corporation was founded in 1964 and is headquartered in Guelph, Canada.
How the Company Makes MoneyLinamar makes money through a multifaceted revenue model that capitalizes on its diversified product offerings across the Transportation and Industrial segments. In the Transportation segment, Linamar generates revenue by manufacturing and supplying precision-machined components and systems for automotive powertrains, such as engines, transmissions, driveline systems, and other critical components. This stream is driven by long-term contracts with major automotive manufacturers and is influenced by global automotive production trends. In the Industrial segment, Linamar earns revenue by producing and selling access equipment like aerial work platforms and telehandlers, along with agricultural machinery. Strategic partnerships, technological innovation, and a focus on efficiency and quality contribute significantly to Linamar's earnings, allowing the company to maintain competitive pricing and strong relationships with original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) and other clients.

Linamar Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Linamar demonstrates strong revenue growth and profitability, supported by a solid balance sheet and effective cash flow management. However, attention is needed on increasing liabilities and capital expenditure fluctuations.
Income Statement
85
Very Positive
Linamar has demonstrated strong revenue growth, with a notable increase from previous periods. The gross profit and net profit margins are solid, indicating efficient cost management and profitability. The EBIT and EBITDA margins are healthy, showcasing operational efficiency. However, maintaining the growth trajectory will be vital in an industry susceptible to cyclical demand.
Balance Sheet
78
Positive
The balance sheet is strong, with a reasonable debt-to-equity ratio indicating balanced leverage. The return on equity is commendable, reflecting effective use of shareholders' resources. The equity ratio is robust, representing financial stability. However, attention should be paid to increasing liabilities, which could impact future leverage.
Cash Flow
82
Very Positive
Linamar exhibits strong cash flow management with operating cash flow comfortably covering net income. The free cash flow growth is impressive, supporting reinvestment and debt management. Yet, fluctuations in capital expenditures could pose risks to consistent free cash flow generation.
Breakdown
Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021Dec 2020Dec 2019
Income StatementTotal Revenue
9.73B7.92B6.54B5.82B7.42B
Gross Profit
1.32B974.81M937.65M788.42M1.07B
EBIT
794.02M594.83M601.23M424.19M624.50M
EBITDA
1.26B1.04B1.07B923.79M1.10B
Net Income Common Stockholders
503.05M426.19M420.56M279.13M430.44M
Balance SheetCash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
653.33M860.51M928.43M861.10M338.23M
Total Assets
9.85B8.58B7.39B7.56B7.58B
Total Debt
1.77B1.31B791.54M1.30B1.90B
Net Debt
1.12B447.86M-136.88M442.11M1.56B
Total Liabilities
4.53B3.76B2.79B3.20B3.55B
Stockholders Equity
5.32B4.81B4.60B4.35B4.03B
Cash FlowFree Cash Flow
3.26M44.88M654.22M1.14B608.71M
Operating Cash Flow
793.55M468.13M908.76M1.43B1.17B
Investing Cash Flow
-1.19B-715.74M-267.32M-290.31M-547.20M
Financing Cash Flow
207.40M156.39M-572.08M-616.41M-724.08M

Linamar Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Positive
Last Price57.99
Price Trends
50DMA
50.43
Positive
100DMA
53.06
Positive
200DMA
57.39
Positive
Market Momentum
MACD
1.17
Negative
RSI
73.87
Negative
STOCH
89.52
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TSE:LNR, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 57.99 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 50.14, above the 50-day MA of 50.43, and above the 200-day MA of 57.39, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 1.17 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 73.87 is Negative, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 89.52 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for TSE:LNR.

Linamar Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
TSLNR
74
Outperform
$3.12B12.324.66%1.74%2.26%-54.00%
61
Neutral
$6.59B11.773.06%3.98%2.56%-20.85%
TSNFI
60
Neutral
C$1.45B-0.38%18.07%98.61%
* Consumer Cyclical Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
TSE:LNR
Linamar
60.00
-9.70
-13.92%
MGA
Magna International
34.80
-10.03
-22.37%
EXCOF
Exco Technologies
4.54
-0.89
-16.39%
MRETF
Martinrea International
5.74
-2.86
-33.26%
TSE:NFI
NFI Group Inc
14.55
-0.28
-1.89%
CADNF
Cascades
6.05
-1.03
-14.55%

Linamar Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:May 07, 2025
(Q4-2024)
|
% Change Since: 9.25%|
Next Earnings Date:Aug 13, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
Linamar demonstrated resilience by achieving strong financial results and securing new business despite challenging market conditions and tariff uncertainties. However, the company faces significant pressures from declining sales in key segments and market challenges in Europe.
Q4-2024 Updates
Positive Updates
Strong Financial Performance
Linamar achieved nearly $800 million in free cash flow for the year and reported double-digit earnings growth despite market challenges. The company also maintained a healthy balance sheet with a net debt to EBITDA ratio of 0.79.
New Business Wins
Linamar secured nearly $3.5 billion in new business for its Mobility segment, with significant takeover work growing from $150 million to $180 million, indicating strong market positioning.
Market Share Growth
Despite industry declines, Linamar increased its market share in key segments, such as a 12% increase in global content per vehicle and outperforming a 17% market decline in agriculture by maintaining growth.
Negative Updates
Decline in Mobility and Industrial Sales
Mobility sales decreased by 5.8% due to significant market declines in Europe and North America. Industrial sales faced challenges due to lower demand for access equipment, despite growth in other areas.
European Market Challenges
The company faced a significant impairment due to market deterioration in Europe, resulting in a goodwill write-down, and is focusing on cost-cutting measures to mitigate these challenges.
Tariff Uncertainty
The imposition of tariffs on Canada and Mexico by the U.S. has created uncertainty, with potential impacts on supply chains and production, although Linamar has taken steps to mitigate these risks.
Company Guidance
In the Linamar Fourth Quarter 2024 Earnings Conference Call, several key metrics were highlighted. The company achieved nearly $800 million in free cash flow for the year, while also delivering another year of double-digit earnings growth, marking the tenth time in the last 15 years. The net debt to EBITDA ratio was a healthy 0.79, showcasing a strong balance sheet. Linamar's sales for the quarter reached $2.4 billion, slightly down from the previous year, with the Mobility segment experiencing a 6% decline. However, the Industrial segment saw a 5% increase, largely due to the Bourgault acquisition. The company also repurchased 1.4 million shares under its NCIB program. Despite a challenging market, Linamar's EPS was $1.82, with normalized net earnings at $111.8 million, or 4.7% of sales, down 8% from the previous year. The company emphasized its strategic focus on flexibility, cost improvements, and capital reallocation, particularly in light of market shifts and tariffs affecting the industry.
Glossary
OutperformA stock rated as "Outperform" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider this stock a good buying opportunity.
NeutralA stock rated as "Neutral" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly attractive nor unattractive for investment. Investors may consider holding onto the stock, as it is not expected to either significantly outperform or underperform the market.
UnderperformA stock rated as "Underperform" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock may deliver lower returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider selling the stock or avoiding it as an investment.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.