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Tidewater Renewables Ltd.
(TSX:LCFS)
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Rating:54Neutral
Price Target:
C$18.50
▼(-1.07% Downside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:08/17/26
The score is driven primarily by improving but still mixed financial performance (strong operating momentum, thin net profitability, elevated leverage, and historically volatile cash flow). Technicals support the uptrend but are tempered by overbought signals. Valuation is a major headwind due to the extremely high P/E, while the latest earnings call adds support via raised guidance and deleveraging progress.
Positive Factors
High utilization and operating reliability
Throughput above nameplate capacity indicates that debottlenecking has expanded effective output without requiring a proportionate new build. Combined with high facility reliability, this supports stronger fixed-cost absorption, recurring fuel volumes, and more durable operating leverage.
Negative Factors
Thin net profitability and uneven earnings quality
Very thin bottom-line profitability leaves limited protection if operating conditions weaken or financing and other costs rise. The history of substantial earnings volatility also makes it harder to view recent operating improvement as a consistently durable conversion into shareholder returns.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
High utilization and operating reliability
Throughput above nameplate capacity indicates that debottlenecking has expanded effective output without requiring a proportionate new build. Combined with high facility reliability, this supports stronger fixed-cost absorption, recurring fuel volumes, and more durable operating leverage.
Read all positive factors
Tidewater Renewables Ltd. (LCFS) vs. iShares MSCI Canada ETF (EWC)
Market Cap
C$666.78M
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)34.33K
Price to Earnings (P/E)5703.1
Beta (1Y)-0.40
Revenue Growth23.90%
EPS GrowthN/A
CountryCA
Employees79
SectorBasic Materials
Sector Strength58
IndustryChemicals - Specialty
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)<0.01
Shares Outstanding36,536,000
10 Day Avg. Volume25,923
30 Day Avg. Volume34,331
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-0.44
Price to Book (P/B)1.00
Price to Sales (P/S)0.62
P/FCF Ratio27.63
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price Target
C$25.00Price Target Upside33.69% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering1
EPS Forecast (FY)1.53
Revenue Forecast (FY)C$382.45M
Tidewater Renewables Ltd. Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Established in 2021 and headquartered in Calgary, Canada, Tidewater Renewables Ltd. is a North American entity dedicated to the production of sustainable fuels. The company's primary focus is on generating low-carbon energy sources, such as renewa...
How the Company Makes Money
Tidewater Renewables makes money primarily by (1) selling physical low-carbon fuels it produces and (2) monetizing environmental attributes tied to those fuels under clean-fuel regulatory programs.
1) Sale of renewable/low-carbon fuels: The compa...
Tidewater Renewables Ltd. Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Aug 13, 2026
(Q2-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Nov 05, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call contained multiple operational and financial positives: record throughput and adjusted EBITDA at the Renewables complex, consolidated record adjusted EBITDA, improved leverage with net debt down $44.4M, upgraded 2026 guidance (+20% vs prior midpoint), and proactive hedging and SAF project progress with secured pre‑FID credits. Offsetting issues were localized operational curtailments (BRC and Red River), a planned refinery outage that lowered quarterly throughput, some realized hedge losses, and remaining noncore asset sales and regulatory dependencies for the SAF project. On balance, the positive operational results, stronger markets and meaningful deleveraging outweigh the highlighted operational and execution risks.Positive Updates
HDRD Complex Record Throughput and Utilization
HDRD complex achieved record average daily throughput of 3.31 thousand barrels per day in Q2 2026, operating at 111% of nameplate capacity driven by low-cost debottlenecking initiatives and high facility reliability.
Negative Updates
BRC Throughput Decline and Fractionation Utilization Drop
BRC gas processing throughput averaged 105 MMcf/d in Q2 2026, an 8% decrease versus Q1 2026 due to NGTL curtailments; fractionation facility utilization fell to 76% in Q2 from 90% in Q1 (14 percentage point decline), reducing midstream margins.
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Q2-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
HDRD Complex Record Throughput and Utilization
HDRD complex achieved record average daily throughput of 3.31 thousand barrels per day in Q2 2026, operating at 111% of nameplate capacity driven by low-cost debottlenecking initiatives and high facility reliability.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management raised full‑year 2026 adjusted EBITDA guidance to consolidated $230–$250 million (a 20% increase versus the prior midpoint), with Tidewater Renewables guided to $130–$140 million and Tidewater Midstream (deconsolidated) to $100–$110 million; 2026 capital expenditures remain unchanged at $2–$3 million for Renewables and $20–$25 million for the consolidated group (net of expected BCLCFS credits). The upgrade is driven by higher facility utilization, sustained forward crack spreads and improved renewable diesel and emissions pricing; hedging coverage is ~50% of crack exposure Apr–Dec 2026 and ~40% for 2027. Management expects BCLCFS credits in Q3–Q4 2026 and to receive $13.8 million of biofuels production incentive cash (covering Q1–Q2) in Q3 2026. Balance‑sheet progress includes consolidated net debt down $44.4 million in Q2, debt/adjusted EBITDA of 1.47x at Renewables, 2.3x at Midstream and 1.7x consolidated (target range 1.2–2.5x), with free cash flow to be directed primarily to debt reduction.Tidewater Renewables Ltd. Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
56
Neutral
Balance Sheet
48
Neutral
Cash Flow
52
Neutral
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 370.90M | 248.00M | 426.54M | 97.68M | 76.10M | 23.05M |
| Gross Profit | 78.90M | 18.10M | 118.15M | 44.05M | 46.13M | 8.93M |
| EBITDA | 89.03M | 30.00M | -404.94M | -17.12M | 62.30M | 12.11M |
| Net Income | 326.00K | 3.50M | -357.85M | -41.02M | 25.94M | 2.76M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 468.20M | 397.60M | 406.53M | 1.09B | 993.32M | 730.99M |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 600.00K | 0.00 | 44.00K | 105.00K | 11.38M | 1.02M |
| Total Debt | 187.10M | 199.20M | 192.98M | 345.60M | 219.37M | 81.86M |
| Total Liabilities | 297.10M | 242.40M | 248.75M | 573.57M | 443.20M | 215.40M |
| Stockholders Equity | 171.10M | 155.20M | 151.27M | 506.63M | 543.63M | 515.60M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 11.40M | 5.60M | 30.60M | -180.02M | -177.13M | -24.62M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 21.91M | 18.70M | 54.65M | 22.78M | 67.44M | 6.36M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -9.81M | -13.00M | 129.08M | -136.04M | -194.50M | -213.15M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -11.65M | -5.70M | -183.79M | 101.98M | 137.41M | 207.81M |
Tidewater Renewables Ltd. Technical Analysis
Neutral
18.70
Price Trends
16.38
Positive
13.67
Positive
9.39
Positive
Market Momentum
0.62
Positive
51.44
Neutral
41.63
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TSE:LCFS, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 18.7 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 18.96, above the 50-day MA of 16.38, and above the 200-day MA of 9.39, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.62 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 51.44 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 41.63 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for TSE:LCFS.
Tidewater Renewables Ltd. Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
61 Neutral | $10.43B | 7.12 | -0.05% | 2.87% | 2.86% | -36.73% | |
54 Neutral | C$666.78M | 5,703.12 | 0.20% | ― | 23.90% | ― | |
52 Neutral | C$29.98M | -2.59 | -28.27% | 6.49% | ― | -162.69% | |
48 Neutral | C$14.25M | -4.66 | -72.76% | ― | -66.21% | -378.27% | |
45 Neutral | C$51.89M | -3.59 | -18.15% | ― | -19.22% | 11.82% |
* Basic Materials Sector Average
TSE:LCFS
Tidewater Renewables Ltd.
18.25
14.38
371.58%
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Tidewater Renewables Ltd. Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Tidewater Renewables Lifts 2026 Guidance on Record EBITDA and Strong Biofuels Output
Positive
Aug 13, 2026
Tidewater Renewables reported second-quarter 2026 net income of $5.1 million, down from $13.0 million a year earlier, but delivered record adjusted EBITDA of $56.0 million on revenue of $160.6 million. The company’s Hydrotreated Renewable Di...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.