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Great-West Lifeco
(TSX:GWO)
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Rating:74Outperform
Price Target:
C$101.00
â–²(11.91% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:07/30/26
The score is driven primarily by solid and improving financial performance (profitability/ROE and manageable leverage) and a constructive earnings-call outlook with continued capital deployment and strong platform momentum. Offsetting factors include historical earnings/cash-flow variability, near-term technical consolidation (below the 20-day average), and a valuation that looks fair rather than clearly discounted.
Positive Factors
Platform Scale and Fee Growth
Large and growing retirement and wealth assets support recurring management and administration fees. The scale of Empower and related platforms can strengthen client retention, distribution reach and operating leverage over the next several quarters.
Negative Factors
Earnings Volatility
Life-insurance earnings remain exposed to interest rates, hedging outcomes, credit markets, real estate values and actuarial assumptions. This complexity can make reported profitability and capital generation less consistent across quarters.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Platform Scale and Fee Growth
Large and growing retirement and wealth assets support recurring management and administration fees. The scale of Empower and related platforms can strengthen client retention, distribution reach and operating leverage over the next several quarters.
Read all positive factors
Great-West Lifeco (GWO) vs. iShares MSCI Canada ETF (EWC)
Market Cap
C$82.82B
Dividend Yield2.82%
Average Volume (3M)1.32M
Price to Earnings (P/E)19.0
Beta (1Y)0.22
Revenue Growth4.29%
EPS Growth21.91%
CountryCA
Employees33,430
SectorFinancial
Sector Strength70
IndustryInsurance - Life
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)4.88
Shares Outstanding894,464,970
10 Day Avg. Volume1,230,862
30 Day Avg. Volume1,319,299
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio11.12
Price to Book (P/B)2.09
Price to Sales (P/S)1.60
P/FCF Ratio23.10
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price Target
C$98.67Price Target Upside9.33% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering6
EPS Forecast (FY)5.73
Revenue Forecast (FY)C$5.21B
Great-West Lifeco Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Great-West Lifeco Inc. is a financial services holding company deeply involved in life and health insurance, retirement and investment solutions, asset management, and reinsurance across Canada, the United States, and Europe. The company delivers ...
How the Company Makes Money
Great-West Lifeco primarily makes money through a combination of insurance earnings, fee-based revenue from retirement/wealth businesses, and investment income on assets it manages.
1) Premiums and underwriting results (insurance operations): The...
Great-West Lifeco Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Jul 28, 2026
(Q2-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Nov 04, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call conveyed strong operational momentum across key growth platforms (Empower, CRS, Europe) with double-digit earnings growth, sizable AUM expansion (+22% to >$3.37T), robust capital generation (base capital >80% of base earnings; free cash flow 86% of base earnings), and active capital deployment (US$925M buybacks YTD and accretive M&A). Balanced against this, there were several manageable near-term headwinds—moderated Canadian insurance experience (LTD), quarter-specific market and hedging volatility (including an equity/hedge-related swing), real estate valuation pressure (~20% decline), and tight credit spreads that could pressure investment yields. Overall, the positives—material earnings and AUM growth, record margins at Empower, strong CRS demand, and improved European capital efficiency—substantially outweighed the lowlights, which are largely operational/market-cycle in nature and appear addressable.Positive Updates
Strong Base EPS and Earnings Growth
Base EPS grew 15% year-over-year, driven by double-digit growth across Empower and Capital & Risk Solutions (CRS); base ROE was 19.3% for the quarter, in line with medium-term objectives.
Negative Updates
Canadian Insurance Experience and LTD Pressure
Canadian base earnings decreased 9% year-over-year for the quarter as strong retirement and wealth performance was offset by moderated long-term disability (LTD) experience gains and unfavorable individual insurance and mortality experience; management cited slower claims recovery/return-to-work and softer employment growth as contributors and cautioned the LTD pressure may continue into Q3.
Read all updates
Q2-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Strong Base EPS and Earnings Growth
Base EPS grew 15% year-over-year, driven by double-digit growth across Empower and Capital & Risk Solutions (CRS); base ROE was 19.3% for the quarter, in line with medium-term objectives.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
The company reiterated confident guidance across capital deployment, operations and risk metrics: it expects total 2026 capital deployment to be at least the $1.6 billion deployed in 2025 (having repurchased $925 million year-to-date and agreed the US$340 million Milliman deal that adds ~1.5 million participants and US$130 billion of assets), maintains Holdco cash of $2.5 billion, a LICAT of 128% (expected to stay ≥125%), a leverage ratio of 27% (with ongoing leverage capacity around 30%), and an amended NCIB authorizing up to 40 million shares. Operationally, Empower is on track for double‑digit organic base‑earnings growth in 2026 with >US$2.0 trillion in workplace assets, a record Empower ROE of 22.2%, retirement net plan flows expected to be positive for the full year, wealth operating margin at a record 40% this quarter (guidance: mid‑to‑high‑30s for the full year), and retirement margins improved >600 bps year‑over‑year; Europe expects mid‑single‑digit (or higher) earnings growth with Q2 UK bulk annuities of $1.2 billion, H1 wealth net inflows of $7.1 billion and H1 retirement net flows of $600 million, and reports >$3 billion of capital benefits realized (>$2 billion cash remittances, ~30% reduction in new‑business capital strain) driving a 350‑bp ROE improvement from 2024. At the group level Great‑West delivered base EPS growth of 15% this quarter, base ROE of 19.3% (near the 19.5% medium‑term target), CRS continues strong demand with mid‑30%s base‑earnings growth and run‑rate insurance results up ~54% YoY, base capital generation exceeded 80% of base earnings and free cash flow was 86% of base earnings, while credit experience remained within guidance (4–6 bps annualized) and is expected to sit at the lower end of the $80–$120 million pretax range under normal conditions.Great-West Lifeco Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
78
Positive
Balance Sheet
80
Positive
Cash Flow
67
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 37.09B | 39.10B | 34.72B | 36.73B | -2.69B | 64.45B |
| Gross Profit | 15.86B | 13.13B | 13.39B | 11.12B | 11.06B | 12.93B |
| EBITDA | 6.45B | 5.64B | 5.93B | 3.98B | 4.96B | 4.72B |
| Net Income | 4.63B | 4.12B | 4.07B | 2.87B | 3.73B | 3.26B |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 946.01B | 862.83B | 802.16B | 713.23B | 701.46B | 630.49B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 26.18B | 28.39B | 24.71B | 19.38B | 18.84B | 17.23B |
| Total Debt | 8.96B | 13.41B | 10.23B | 9.65B | 11.29B | 9.73B |
| Total Liabilities | 911.41B | 829.83B | 771.01B | 683.38B | 669.14B | 600.00B |
| Stockholders Equity | 31.32B | 29.86B | 29.54B | 26.84B | 29.01B | 27.22B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 4.22B | 2.71B | 4.75B | 5.20B | 7.05B | 10.37B |
| Operating Cash Flow | 4.22B | 2.71B | 4.75B | 5.20B | 7.05B | 10.37B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -93.00M | -56.00M | -408.00M | -786.00M | -5.49B | -11.21B |
| Financing Cash Flow | -4.71B | -4.32B | -2.29B | -3.55B | -620.00M | -992.00M |
Great-West Lifeco Technical Analysis
Positive
90.25
Price Trends
90.82
Positive
85.42
Positive
74.60
Positive
Market Momentum
0.70
Negative
59.28
Neutral
79.03
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TSE:GWO, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 90.25 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 90.19, below the 50-day MA of 90.82, and above the 200-day MA of 74.60, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.70 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 59.28 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 79.03 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for TSE:GWO.
Great-West Lifeco Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (68)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
78 Outperform | C$101.45B | 16.50 | 12.98% | 3.10% | 18.31% | 18.90% | |
74 Outperform | C$82.82B | 19.05 | 15.48% | 2.82% | 4.29% | 21.91% | |
74 Outperform | C$62.46B | 18.95 | 13.89% | 3.35% | -0.59% | 5.22% | |
73 Outperform | C$44.89B | 14.48 | 15.73% | 2.20% | 3.25% | 38.09% | |
73 Outperform | C$58.27B | 22.92 | 10.91% | 2.72% | 9.74% | -3.94% | |
72 Outperform | C$50.46B | 7.77 | 16.94% | 0.90% | -1.15% | 1.30% | |
68 Neutral | $18.00B | 11.42 | 9.92% | 3.81% | 9.73% | 1.22% |
* Financial Sector Average
TSE:GWO
Great-West Lifeco
92.94
41.54
80.83%
TSE:MFC
Manulife Financial
61.22
20.03
48.65%
TSE:SLF
Sun Life Financial
112.36
34.20
43.76%
TSE:FFH
Fairfax Financial Holdings
2,306.07
-59.74
-2.53%
TSE:IFC
Intact Financial Corporation
260.89
0.06
0.02%
TSE:POW
Power Corp of Canada
94.22
38.71
69.74%
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.