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First Capital Realty
(TSX:FCR.UN)
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Rating:70Outperform
Price Target:
C$25.00
â–²(10.23% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:07/29/26
The score is driven primarily by solid underlying operating profitability and an improving leverage profile, tempered by weak earnings-to-cash conversion and volatile bottom-line quality. Valuation is a clear positive (low P/E and ~3.9% yield), while technicals appear neutral with the stock consolidating near short-term averages despite remaining above longer-term trend levels.
Positive Factors
Operating profitability
High operating margins at the property level indicate durable NOI generation from leasing operations. Sustained gross and EBIT margins support internal funding for maintenance, redevelopment and distributions, making core cash flow less sensitive to minor rent or occupancy fluctuations over months.
Negative Factors
Weak cash conversion
Low conversion of accounting earnings into operating cash constrains internally available funds for capex, redevelopment and distributions. Over months this limits tactical flexibility, increases reliance on external financing, and makes cash budgeting and dividend coverage more uncertain despite strong reported profits.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Operating profitability
High operating margins at the property level indicate durable NOI generation from leasing operations. Sustained gross and EBIT margins support internal funding for maintenance, redevelopment and distributions, making core cash flow less sensitive to minor rent or occupancy fluctuations over months.
Read all positive factors
First Capital Realty (FCR.UN) vs. iShares MSCI Canada ETF (EWC)
Market Cap
C$4.86B
Dividend Yield3.97%
Average Volume (3M)368.37K
Price to Earnings (P/E)4.7
Beta (1Y)0.54
Revenue Growth0.07%
EPS Growth295.34%
CountryCA
Employees372
SectorReal Estate
Sector Strength53
IndustryREIT - Retail
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)4.85
Shares Outstanding212,600,000
10 Day Avg. Volume387,472
30 Day Avg. Volume368,370
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio<0.01
Price to Book (P/B)0.83
Price to Sales (P/S)5.49
P/FCF Ratio67.13
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price Target
C$24.40Price Target Upside7.58% Upside
Rating ConsensusHold
Number of Analyst Covering2
EPS Forecast (FY)1.28
Revenue Forecast (FY)C$766.31M
First Capital Realty Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Operating within Canada's most concentrated urban areas, First Capital stands as a premier developer, owner, and manager of diverse mixed-use properties. The organization is committed to fostering dynamic urban communities, thereby generating subs...
How the Company Makes Money
First Capital Realty primarily makes money through rental income generated from leasing space in its retail and mixed-use properties to tenants. This revenue is typically earned under commercial lease agreements that may include base rent and, dep...
First Capital Realty Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 10, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Nov 03, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call conveyed materially positive operating momentum driven by robust leasing, record occupancy, all‑time high rents and solid FFO growth, supported by meaningful balance sheet strengthening (extended debt ladder, strong liquidity) and continued disciplined dispositions/development. Headwinds include near‑term vacancy and lost rent from lease terminations and Toys "R" Us, increased interest costs from recent refinancings (adding ~$6M/year), fair value markdowns tied to development/density, and a moderated same‑property NOI outlook (~3% for 2026) given tough comps. On balance, the company demonstrated strong execution on core retail fundamentals and financial positioning, while acknowledging transitory financing and transactional headwinds.Positive Updates
Strong Same-Property NOI and Leasing Performance
Full-year 2025 same-property cash NOI grew 5.9% (ex-lease termination fees and bad debt). Q4 same-property NOI rose 5.7% YoY ($112M vs $106M). Renewals totaled ~2.2M sq ft (535 spaces) with average year‑1 renewal rents up nearly 15% vs expiries and a ~20% renewal lift comparing last year of expiring terms to average renewal rents. New leasing was ~500k sq ft across 193 spaces with average year‑1 net rent of $28.23/sq ft.
Negative Updates
Lease Termination Fees and Short‑Term Vacancies
Q4 lease termination fees were $2.6M from seven tenants (47k sq ft), creating short‑term loss of recurring rental income and roughly 25 bps of portfolio vacancy; management expects backfill prospects but there is near‑term NOI pressure.
Read all updates
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Strong Same-Property NOI and Leasing Performance
Full-year 2025 same-property cash NOI grew 5.9% (ex-lease termination fees and bad debt). Q4 same-property NOI rose 5.7% YoY ($112M vs $106M). Renewals totaled ~2.2M sq ft (535 spaces) with average year‑1 renewal rents up nearly 15% vs expiries and a ~20% renewal lift comparing last year of expiring terms to average renewal rents. New leasing was ~500k sq ft across 193 spaces with average year‑1 net rent of $28.23/sq ft.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management guided 2026 same‑property NOI growth of about 3% (excluding lease termination fees and bad debt), which combined with 2025’s strong 5.9% same‑property NOI would produce more than 9% stacked growth over two years; they expect 2026 development spend of $200–240M (vs $163M in 2025) with $55–65M of retail development/redevelopment deliveries and a stabilized NOI yield of 6.5–7% (benefit weighted to late 2026/2027). They warned of higher financing costs as a result of the $500M debenture issuance (weighted‑average effective rate ~4.7% vs ~3.5% on repaid debt), a ~120bp increase on $500M that equates to roughly $6M of incremental annual interest beginning Q1 2026, while reiterating their objective to reach low‑8x debt‑to‑EBITDA by end‑2026 from the current low‑9s; other balance‑sheet metrics cited were >$700M liquidity, $6.3B unencumbered assets (~70% of assets), a 16% secured‑debt/asset ratio, a 4.6‑year weighted average debt maturity (up from 3.7 a year ago) and only $129M (3% of total debt) maturing in 2026. They also referenced operating FFO of $286M ($1.33/unit) in 2025, Q4 OFFO/unit of $0.34, an OFFO payout ratio of 67% (ACFO payout 83%), planned development ramp at Yonge & Roselawn, and anticipated condominium cash inflows (Edenbridge gross ~$115–120M with ~33% collected and an expected ~$50–60M of proceeds in Q1).First Capital Realty Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
78
Positive
Balance Sheet
70
Positive
Cash Flow
56
Neutral
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 755.54M | 731.24M | 712.59M | 752.07M | 712.20M | 683.81M |
| Gross Profit | 477.02M | 459.94M | 446.35M | 489.34M | 444.61M | 420.86M |
| EBITDA | 402.83M | 458.78M | 389.88M | 441.68M | 404.62M | 373.37M |
| Net Income | 1.03B | 1.06B | 204.93M | -134.06M | -160.00M | 460.13M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 9.40B | 9.23B | 9.18B | 9.19B | 9.58B | 10.11B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 32.02M | 57.17M | 153.54M | 90.22M | 36.03M | 74.06M |
| Total Debt | 4.09B | 3.99B | 4.05B | 4.09B | 4.14B | 4.43B |
| Total Liabilities | 4.48B | 4.34B | 5.17B | 5.19B | 5.25B | 5.44B |
| Stockholders Equity | 4.84B | 4.82B | 3.95B | 3.93B | 4.28B | 4.62B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 121.42M | 59.81M | 110.02M | 84.71M | 126.21M | 96.09M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 210.75M | 206.71M | 233.79M | 227.73M | 251.22M | 249.61M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -126.70M | -50.88M | 33.38M | 83.69M | 133.98M | 154.89M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -328.32M | -252.50M | -204.30M | -256.70M | -387.21M | -470.25M |
First Capital Realty Technical Analysis
Positive
22.68
Price Trends
22.63
Positive
22.78
Positive
21.54
Positive
Market Momentum
0.05
Negative
60.17
Neutral
84.30
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TSE:FCR.UN, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 22.68 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 22.59, above the 50-day MA of 22.63, and above the 200-day MA of 21.54, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.05 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 60.17 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 84.30 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for TSE:FCR.UN.
First Capital Realty Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (65)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
73 Outperform | C$4.06B | 7.43 | 12.79% | 5.59% | 4.77% | 24.61% | |
72 Outperform | C$2.83B | 21.70 | 5.23% | 3.96% | 23.06% | 66.86% | |
70 Outperform | C$4.86B | 4.71 | 22.27% | 3.97% | 0.07% | 295.34% | |
66 Neutral | C$4.53B | 28.49 | 3.03% | 6.98% | -1.11% | -31.75% | |
65 Neutral | $2.17B | 12.19 | 3.79% | 4.94% | 3.15% | 1.96% | |
62 Neutral | C$2.97B | -50.64 | 6.03% | 5.71% | 3.98% | -1411.59% | |
60 Neutral | C$6.01B | 24.09 | 3.53% | 5.59% | -2.62% | -8.84% |
* Real Estate Sector Average
TSE:FCR.UN
First Capital Realty
22.82
3.84
20.22%
TSE:REI.UN
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TSE:CRT.UN
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TSE:SRU.UN
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Primaris Real Estate Investment Trust
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Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.