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Computer Modelling (CMG) AI Stock Analysis
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Computer Modelling
(TSX:CMG)
The score is driven primarily by solid underlying profitability and manageable leverage, but is held back by decelerating fundamentals (negative revenue growth, margin/ROE downshift, and sharply weaker free cash flow). Technicals are neutral-to-slightly positive near term but the stock remains below its longer-term trend. Valuation is reasonable rather than compelling, and the latest call reaffirmed full-year targets but highlighted continued near-term pressure and execution/seasonality risk.
Computer Modelling (CMG) vs. iShares MSCI Canada ETF (EWC)
- Market Cap
- CAD 295.14M
- Dividend Yield
- 1.00%
- Average Volume (3M)
- 142.03K
- Price to Earnings (P/E)
- 21.3
- Beta (1Y)
- 0.83
- Revenue Growth
- -3.23%
- EPS Growth
- -27.76%
- Country
- Canada
- Employees
- 295
- Sector
- Technology
- Sector Strength
- 61
- Industry
- Software - Application
Computer Modelling Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Computer Modelling Group Ltd. (CMG) is a technology firm that develops and licenses advanced software solutions for reservoir simulation, serving clients worldwide with a significant presence in Canada. Its comprehensive product portfolio aids in the...
How the Company Makes Money
CMG primarily makes money by licensing its proprietary simulation software to customers, typically energy producers and related technical organizations. Revenue is generated through software license sales and related ongoing payments for maintenance...
Computer Modelling Earnings Call Summary
The call presented a mixed but controlled picture: the company faces notable near-term challenges (double-digit organic declines, softer professional services, lower adjusted EBITDA and reduced free cash flow this quarter) yet has several offsetting positives—acquisition contributions, a clarified capital deployment plan including a $20M SIB, active AI and product development, and management's reaffirmed full-year guidance with expectations of sequential improvement in recurring revenue and improved free cash flow for the year. Management emphasized strategy continuity, international opportunity, and confidence in stabilization, but results remain dependent on renewals, seasonality and successful integration of acquisitions.
Q1-2027 Updates
Positive Updates
Negative Updates
Company Guidance
The company guided that Q1 revenue was $27.8M (total revenue down YoY as 10% acquisition growth was more than offset by a 16% organic decline), recurring revenue was down 3% (organic recurring revenue down 12% this quarter while acquisitions added ~9%), adjusted EBITDA and margin declined, and free cash flow fell to $3.5M (free cash flow conversion weakened) with current income tax of $1.5M vs. $0.9M a year ago; looking ahead, management expects organic recurring revenue to increase sequentially in Q2 (Q1 is typically the lightest quarter, Q4 the heaviest), Q2 professional services to be the lowest quarter of the year and adjusted EBITDA to decline both sequentially and YoY in Q2 (driven by lower professional services and higher sales & marketing/commission timing), full-year guidance reaffirms stable organic recurring revenue and no reduction in adjusted EBITDA versus fiscal 2026, free cash flow is expected to improve year-over-year in FY2027, professional services revenue is now expected to decline $6–7M (trending to the higher end), and the company will draw up to $20M on its credit facility to fund a substantial issuer bid while preserving capital for M&A.
Computer Modelling Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Still a profitable, high-margin software business (TTM gross margin ~75.9%, EBIT margin ~20.9%), with manageable leverage (debt-to-equity ~0.55). However, fundamentals have clearly cooled: TTM revenue growth is negative (-1.4%), net margin is down (~12.4%), and free cash flow fell sharply (TTM FCF growth -36.9%) with weaker cash conversion.
Income Statement
74PositiveBalance Sheet
72PositiveCash Flow
62Positive| Breakdown | TTM | Mar 2026 | Mar 2024 | Mar 2023 | Mar 2022 | Mar 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 124.40M | 126.19M | 129.45M | 73.85M | 66.20M | 67.36M |
| Gross Profit | 94.40M | 93.76M | 104.51M | 56.69M | 49.92M | 51.67M |
| EBITDA | 36.50M | 36.71M | 43.24M | 29.51M | 30.22M | 34.84M |
| Net Income | 15.43M | 17.42M | 22.44M | 19.80M | 18.41M | 20.19M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 183.74M | 197.31M | 204.76M | 137.13M | 125.15M | 122.49M |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 21.52M | 27.95M | 43.88M | 66.85M | 59.66M | 49.07M |
| Total Debt | 43.74M | 43.27M | 38.58M | 37.98M | 39.59M | 40.96M |
| Total Liabilities | 104.20M | 118.97M | 118.85M | 84.68M | 78.43M | 79.07M |
| Stockholders Equity | 79.54M | 78.33M | 85.91M | 52.45M | 46.72M | 43.42M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 18.13M | 28.71M | 28.50M | 23.83M | 28.01M | 26.03M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 20.43M | 31.27M | 29.92M | 25.88M | 28.71M | 26.43M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -26.84M | -27.11M | -37.96M | -2.05M | -703.00K | -397.00K |
| Financing Cash Flow | -21.23M | -23.58M | -13.67M | -16.64M | -17.42M | -17.47M |
Computer Modelling Technical Analysis
Price Trends
Market Momentum
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TSE:CMG, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 4.01 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 4.19, below the 50-day MA of 4.04, and below the 200-day MA of 4.01, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.01 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 44.43 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 23.65 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for TSE:CMG.
Computer Modelling Peers Comparison
Overall Rating
TSE:URL65Neutral- TSE:CMG65Neutral
TSE:TCS63Neutral
TSE:ABXX37Underperform
TSE:IMP34Underperform
Financial Indicators
| Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TSE:URL | 65Neutral | CAD 137.39M | 235.94 | 8.75% | ― | 13.07% | -16.88% |
| TSE:CMG | 65Neutral | CAD 294.93M | 21.26 | 18.44% | 1.00% | -3.23% | -27.76% |
| TSE:TCS | 63Neutral | CAD 550.14M | 87.80 | 9.76% | 0.94% | 10.33% | 46.04% |
| Sector * | 61Neutral | $37.18B | 12.37 | -10.20% | 1.83% | 8.50% | -7.62% |
| TSE:ABXX | 37Underperform | CAD 606.27M | -8.88 | -93.80% | ― | 303.70% | -1.45% |
| TSE:IMP | 34Underperform | CAD 58.29M | -3.75 | -43.54% | ― | -66.56% | -940.17% |
* Technology Sector Average
Performance Comparison
| Show on chart | Ticker | Company Name | Price | Change | % Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TSE:CMG | Computer Modelling | 4.01 | -1.27 | -24.04% | |
| TSE:URL | Namesilo Technologies Corp. | 1.51 | -0.01 | -0.66% | |
| TSE:IMP | Intermap Technology | 0.79 | -1.94 | -71.06% | |
| TSE:ABXX | Abaxx Technologies Inc. | 15.63 | 15.29 | 4497.06% | |
| TSE:TCS | TECSYS Inc. | 38.15 | 2.87 | 8.13% |
Computer Modelling Corporate Events
Computer Modelling Group sets November release and call for Q2 2027 results
NeutralComputer Modelling Group Ltd. will release its second quarter 2027 financial results after the market close on November 12, 2026, as it continues to position its specialized software and consulting services at the center of evolving new energy subsur...
Computer Modelling Group Completes $20 Million Share Buyback
PositiveComputer Modelling Group Ltd. has completed its substantial issuer bid, repurchasing 4,444,444 common shares at C$4.50 per share for a total of approximately C$20 million. The buyback represents about 5.7% of CMG’s outstanding shares, reducing...
Computer Modelling Group’s C$20 Million Share Buyback Oversubscribed
PositiveComputer Modelling Group has completed a substantial issuer bid to repurchase and cancel approximately 4.44 million common shares at C$4.50 each, for a total of about C$20 million. The buyback represents roughly 5.7% of its pre-offer shares and will...
Computer Modelling Group Wins Regulatory Relief for C$20 Million Share Buyback
PositiveComputer Modelling Group Ltd. has obtained exemptive relief from the Alberta Securities Commission, applicable across Canada, in connection with its substantial issuer bid to repurchase up to C$20 million of its common shares. The company is conducti...
Computer Modelling Group Launches C$20 Million Share Buyback via Dutch Auction
PositiveComputer Modelling Group Ltd., a Calgary-headquartered energy software specialist listed on the TSX, operates a global footprint serving oil and gas producers with reservoir modelling solutions and related services. The company’s business model...
Computer Modelling Group Launches C$20 Million Share Buyback via Dutch Auction
PositiveComputer Modelling Group Ltd. has launched a substantial issuer bid to repurchase and cancel up to C$20 million of its common shares, using a modified Dutch auction structure with an expected price range between C$4.00 and C$4.50 per share. The offer...
Computer Modelling Group Posts Lower Q1 Revenue, Launches $20 Million Share Buyback
NegativeComputer Modelling Group Ltd., a Calgary-based software provider of modelling, simulation and related professional services for energy industry clients, derives most of its income from recurring annuity and maintenance licenses. The company has broad...
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.
Date of analysis: Aug 17, 2026