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Centerra Gold
(TSX:CG)
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Rating:79Outperform
Price Target:
C$33.00
▼(-1.35% Downside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:08/26/26
The score is driven primarily by strong fundamentals—especially the very low leverage and the current profitability rebound—supported by attractive valuation (low P/E). Momentum is positive but tempered by overbought technical signals. Earnings-call tone and guidance were positive, though near-term free cash flow pressure from major project spend limits the upside to the overall score.
Positive Factors
Very low leverage
Extremely low leverage gives Centerra substantial financial flexibility to fund mine development, sustain operations, and absorb commodity or operating volatility. A lightly indebted balance sheet also limits interest burdens and preserves capacity for acquisitions, shareholder returns, or unexpected project needs.
Negative Factors
Weak cash conversion
Cash generation remains materially weaker than accounting earnings, reducing the amount available for development, debt-free shareholder distributions, and reinvestment. Moderate conversion also makes reported profitability less dependable as a measure of near-term financial capacity.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Very low leverage
Extremely low leverage gives Centerra substantial financial flexibility to fund mine development, sustain operations, and absorb commodity or operating volatility. A lightly indebted balance sheet also limits interest burdens and preserves capacity for acquisitions, shareholder returns, or unexpected project needs.
Read all positive factors
Centerra Gold (CG) vs. iShares MSCI Canada ETF (EWC)
Market Cap
C$5.79B
Dividend Yield0.95%
Average Volume (3M)538.78K
Price to Earnings (P/E)6.7
Beta (1Y)2.29
Revenue Growth42.14%
EPS Growth767.00%
CountryCA
Employees3,650
SectorBasic Materials
Sector Strength58
IndustryGold
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)3.16
Shares Outstanding195,607,540
10 Day Avg. Volume459,202
30 Day Avg. Volume538,776
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio<0.01
Price to Book (P/B)1.43
Price to Sales (P/S)2.13
P/FCF Ratio31.12
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price Target
C$33.50Price Target Upside0.15% Upside
Rating ConsensusHold
Number of Analyst Covering5
EPS Forecast (FY)1.61
Revenue Forecast (FY)C$1.81B
Centerra Gold Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Centerra Gold Inc. operates as a mining enterprise, undertaking the acquisition, exploration, development, and operation of gold and copper assets across North America, Turkey, and various international regions. Beyond these, the company also acti...
How the Company Makes Money
Centerra Gold makes money primarily by producing and selling mined metals—mainly gold and, where applicable, copper—from its operations. Revenue is generated when metal production is sold to customers (often via standard market-based pricing linke...
Centerra Gold Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Jul 28, 2026
(Q2-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Feb 25, 2027
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
Overall the call conveyed a positive operational and financial momentum: production guidance was raised, key assets (Mount Milligan and Oksut) outperformed or met plan, adjusted earnings and site-level cash generation were strong, liquidity and shareholder returns were reinforced (upsized $600M revolver, $50M buyback in Q2, $200M authorization for the year, and a dividend). Offsetting factors include near-term free cash flow deficits driven by U.S. Moly restart and timing payments, higher sustaining CapEx pressuring unit costs at certain sites, and a short-term increase in GHG emissions related to restart activity. On balance, the highlights materially outweigh the lowlights.Positive Updates
Raised 2026 Consolidated Gold Guidance
Company increased 2026 consolidated gold production guidance to 260,000–290,000 ounces (previously 250,000–280,000). Midpoint rose from 265,000 to 275,000 ounces (≈+3.8% midpoint increase). Management remains on track for 2026 copper guidance of 50–60 million pounds.
Negative Updates
Free Cash Flow Deficit Driven by Project Spend
Company reported cash flow from operations of $66 million but a free cash flow deficit of $23 million in Q2, primarily due to timing of statutory tax and annual royalty payments in Turkey. U.S. Moly used $45 million of cash in operations and recorded a $89 million free cash flow deficit this quarter related to Thompson Creek restart spending and working capital build at Langeloth.
Read all updates
Q2-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Raised 2026 Consolidated Gold Guidance
Company increased 2026 consolidated gold production guidance to 260,000–290,000 ounces (previously 250,000–280,000). Midpoint rose from 265,000 to 275,000 ounces (≈+3.8% midpoint increase). Management remains on track for 2026 copper guidance of 50–60 million pounds.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Centerra raised 2026 consolidated gold production guidance to 260,000–290,000 ounces (from 250,000–280,000) and remains on track for 50–60 million pounds of copper; site-level guidance includes Mount Milligan 140,000–155,000 oz gold (Q2: >38k oz; Q2 copper 13.1M lb) with AISC reaffirmed at $1,200–$1,300/oz, and Oksut increased to 120,000–135,000 oz gold (Q2: >32.5k oz) with full‑year AISC expected $18.50–$19.50/oz—company consolidated AISC guidance is $16.50–$17.50/oz (Q2 consolidated AISC $17.07/oz). Financial and other metrics noted: Q2 sales ~72k oz gold and 13.4M lb copper at realized prices of $3,440/oz gold and $5.30/lb copper (moly sales 3.8M lb at $29.73/lb), adjusted net earnings $79M ($0.40/share), cash from operations $66M (free cash flow deficit $23M), Mount Milligan cash from ops $118M (free cash flow $89M), Oksut cash from ops $16M (FCF $11M), U.S. Moly used $45M (FCF deficit $89M); capital and liquidity items include Goldfield 2026 CapEx $60–$70M (total project $252M), Thompson Creek capital estimate $425–$450M with first production mid‑2027 (capital to date $256M), Langeloth guidance 11–13M lb roasted moly production and 15–17M lb sales, $50M of buybacks completed in Q2 (2.9M shares) with a $200M 2026 repurchase authorization ($72M completed YTD), dividend $0.07/share, an upsized $600M undrawn credit facility, cash $451M and total liquidity >$1 billion.Centerra Gold Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
78
Positive
Balance Sheet
90
Very Positive
Cash Flow
68
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 1.69B | 1.38B | 1.21B | 1.09B | 850.19M | 900.14M |
| Gross Profit | 595.80M | 463.79M | 378.05M | 360.51M | 242.57M | 291.96M |
| EBITDA | 850.25M | 848.09M | 305.81M | 143.98M | 59.67M | 530.02M |
| Net Income | 638.17M | 594.21M | 80.39M | -81.28M | -77.21M | 446.95M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 3.10B | 2.94B | 2.27B | 2.28B | 2.34B | 2.68B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 457.20M | 539.91M | 628.43M | 615.77M | 531.92M | 949.40M |
| Total Debt | 45.76M | 18.79M | 20.11M | 24.21M | 13.97M | 20.20M |
| Total Liabilities | 927.74M | 884.28M | 609.22M | 606.52M | 525.62M | 632.95M |
| Stockholders Equity | 2.17B | 2.06B | 1.66B | 1.67B | 1.81B | 2.04B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 134.42M | 94.62M | 114.11M | 160.29M | -82.91M | 322.26M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 449.14M | 352.67M | 298.40M | 245.60M | -1.98M | 414.76M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -348.42M | -309.24M | -193.20M | -90.29M | -255.64M | 36.43M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -172.99M | -140.85M | -93.47M | -74.28M | -157.69M | -49.14M |
Centerra Gold Technical Analysis
Neutral
33.45
Price Trends
31.22
Negative
27.62
Positive
26.13
Positive
Market Momentum
-0.47
Positive
45.21
Neutral
37.76
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TSE:CG, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 33.45 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 30.40, above the 50-day MA of 31.22, and above the 200-day MA of 26.13, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.47 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 45.21 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 37.76 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for TSE:CG.
Centerra Gold Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
81 Outperform | C$4.22B | 10.26 | 43.77% | 0.11% | 49.49% | 73.36% | |
79 Outperform | C$5.79B | 6.69 | 30.90% | 0.95% | 42.14% | 767.00% | |
61 Neutral | $10.43B | 7.12 | -0.05% | 2.87% | 2.86% | -36.73% | |
59 Neutral | C$3.94B | -38.84 | -15.60% | ― | 53.83% | 64.41% | |
58 Neutral | C$2.71B | -34.11 | -60.63% | ― | ― | -104.86% | |
53 Neutral | C$4.03B | 129.83 | 3.10% | ― | ― | ― | |
53 Neutral | C$6.43B | -87.99 | -25.28% | ― | ― | 42.62% |
* Basic Materials Sector Average
TSE:CG
Centerra Gold
28.52
12.18
74.55%
TSE:SEA
Seabridge Gold
36.10
3.13
9.49%
TSE:WDO
Wesdome Gold Mines
27.06
5.86
27.64%
TSE:MAU
Montage Gold Corp.
15.27
8.56
127.57%
TSE:SGD
Snowline Gold Corp.
13.90
1.86
15.45%
TSE:AAUC
Allied Gold Corporation
27.52
3.13
12.83%
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.