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Aya Gold & Silver (AYA) AI Stock Analysis
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Aya Gold & Silver
(TSX:AYA)
The score is driven primarily by the sharp TTM profitability/cash-flow improvement and supportive technical uptrend, reinforced by a positive earnings call with reaffirmed guidance, strong operational execution and a stronger cash position. Offsetting these strengths are a higher valuation multiple (P/E ~33) and a history of earnings/free-cash-flow volatility that raises execution and commodity-price sensitivity risk.
Aya Gold & Silver (AYA) vs. iShares MSCI Canada ETF (EWC)
- Market Cap
- CAD 4.63B
- Dividend Yield
- ―
- Average Volume (3M)
- 1.05M
- Price to Earnings (P/E)
- 29.5
- Beta (1Y)
- 3.92
- Revenue Growth
- 264.86%
- EPS Growth
- ―
- Country
- Canada
- Employees
- 810
- Sector
- Basic Materials
- Sector Strength
- 61
- Industry
- Silver
Aya Gold & Silver Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Montreal, Canada-based Aya Gold & Silver Inc., operating alongside its subsidiaries, focuses on the acquisition, exploration, appraisal, and development of valuable mineral properties across Morocco. The firm's exploration efforts are primarily direc...
Aya Gold & Silver Earnings Call Summary
The call presents a strongly positive operational and financial performance: robust year-over-year production growth, dramatically higher revenue and cash flow, improved plant throughput, low cash costs, a fortified cash position, and impactful exploration results including a high-grade discovery. Manageable near-term headwinds include a weaker silver price realization in June that reduced Q2 selling prices, seasonal/reclaiming constraints at Boumadine, temporary increases in strip ratio and selective slowdown in underground mining to focus on development, and payability limitations on some Boumadine sales. Taken together, the positive operational execution, strong cash generation, pipeline growth (PEA/feasibility work and land acquisitions), and successful U.S. listing materially outweigh the identified challenges.
Q2-2026 Updates
Positive Updates
Negative Updates
Company Guidance
Management reaffirmed its full‑year production guidance of 5.2–5.8 million ounces (Ag eq), noting the company is roughly halfway there after H1 production of 3.2M oz (Zgounder 2.8M, Boumadine ~0.5M); cash‑cost guidance was left unchanged at about $21.50/oz for Zgounder (H1 realized $18.18/oz; Q2 $17.69) and ~$10.10/oz for Boumadine (H1 $10.85; Q2 $10.58), with consolidated H1 cash cost ~$17.59/oz. They reiterated sustaining and growth CapEx of ~$36M (roughly split sustaining/growth), an exploration program of ~$60M (targeting ~200,000 m at Boumadine and ~30,000 m at Zgounder, ~93,000 m completed at Boumadine to date), and expect a revised Boumadine PEA in early September ahead of feasibility work; operational notes include Q2 milling ~3,900 tpd trending toward >4,000 tpd with new crushing/ore‑sorting, recoveries and availability >90%, an open‑pit strip ratio that may rise toward ~16 in the next six months and average ~13 for the year/life‑of‑mine, a healthy 374,000‑tonne ore stockpile, and a quarter‑end cash position of ~$183M (including $16M restricted) to fund development.
Aya Gold & Silver Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Financials show a strong TTM inflection: revenue up ~19.6% with very strong profitability (gross margin ~61%, net margin ~33%) and improved returns (ROE ~25%) alongside manageable leverage (debt-to-equity ~0.18). Cash flow is improving with positive free cash flow, but cash conversion is less consistent (FCF meaningfully below net income in TTM) and prior years included negative FCF and a loss year (2024), indicating volatility and execution/commodity sensitivity.
Income Statement
84Very PositiveBalance Sheet
78PositiveCash Flow
70Positive| Breakdown | TTM | Mar 2026 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 339.30M | 202.10M | 39.12M | 42.85M | 38.24M | 34.30M |
| Gross Profit | 207.98M | 83.17M | 5.38M | 15.81M | 10.28M | 16.01M |
| EBITDA | 210.01M | 101.11M | -21.28M | 11.73M | 11.17M | 8.55M |
| Net Income | 111.03M | 45.56M | -21.62M | 5.50M | 466.00K | -307.00K |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 701.15M | 631.73M | 400.11M | 333.06M | 156.80M | 161.26M |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 182.80M | 136.32M | 30.94M | 49.83M | 39.36M | 81.67M |
| Total Debt | 86.20M | 113.54M | 101.33M | 58.79M | 287.00K | 425.88K |
| Total Liabilities | 201.38M | 207.91M | 153.63M | 107.92M | 26.50M | 21.26M |
| Stockholders Equity | 488.97M | 413.65M | 246.48M | 220.72M | 125.72M | 132.95M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 111.00M | -4.25M | -101.61M | -106.25M | -33.67M | -2.74M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 172.50M | 71.95M | -8.62M | 21.19M | 9.65M | 17.54M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -80.57M | -72.39M | -94.01M | -145.44M | -48.46M | -23.59M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -21.74M | 104.93M | 88.48M | 133.35M | 440.60K | 57.91M |
Aya Gold & Silver Technical Analysis
Price Trends
Market Momentum
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TSE:AYA, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 32.13 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 36.31, below the 50-day MA of 37.92, and above the 200-day MA of 28.89, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -1.23 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 35.05 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 31.41 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for TSE:AYA.
Aya Gold & Silver Peers Comparison
Overall Rating
- TSE:AYA77Outperform
TSE:FVI71Outperform
TSE:APM65Neutral
TSE:SVM63Neutral
TSE:SCZ62Neutral
Financial Indicators
| Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TSE:AYA | 77Outperform | CAD 4.63B | 29.48 | 25.26% | ― | 264.86% | ― |
| TSE:FVI | 71Outperform | CAD 3.65B | 7.16 | 22.20% | ― | 6.47% | 126.03% |
| TSE:APM | 65Neutral | CAD 685.44M | 4.12 | 43.72% | ― | 62.75% | 181.92% |
| TSE:SVM | 63Neutral | CAD 2.45B | 60.44 | 3.54% | 0.31% | 59.20% | -44.71% |
| TSE:SCZ | 62Neutral | CAD 875.08M | 14.62 | 21.53% | ― | 38.31% | -37.20% |
| Sector * | 61Neutral | $10.43B | 7.12 | -0.05% | 2.87% | 2.86% | -36.73% |
* Basic Materials Sector Average
Performance Comparison
| Show on chart | Ticker | Company Name | Price | Change | % Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TSE:AYA | Aya Gold & Silver Inc. | 32.13 | 16.66 | 107.69% | |
| TSE:FVI | Fortuna Mining Corp | 12.34 | 0.81 | 7.03% | |
| TSE:SVM | Silvercorp Metals | 11.08 | 1.99 | 21.96% | |
| TSE:SCZ | Santacruz Silver Mining | 9.41 | 2.01 | 27.16% | |
| TSE:APM | Andean Precious Metals Corp | 4.60 | -1.85 | -28.68% |
Aya Gold & Silver Corporate Events
Aya Gold & Silver Sharply Boosts Boumadine Project Economics in Updated PEA
PositiveAya Gold & Silver Inc. has filed an updated Preliminary Economic Assessment for its Boumadine polymetallic project in Morocco, outlining a flexible open-pit and underground mine plan feeding a conventional flotation plant that generates zinc, lea...
Aya Gold & Silver Sets Record Q3 Output as Zgounder and Boumadine Ramp Up
PositiveAya Gold & Silver Inc., listed on the TSX and Nasdaq, operates primarily in precious metals mining with a focus on silver in Morocco. Its flagship asset is the Zgounder Silver Mine, complemented by the Boumadine pyrite reclaim project, giving the...
Aya Gold & Silver Extends High-Grade Mineralization at Boumadine With Aggressive Drilling
PositiveAya Gold & Silver reported a series of new high-grade drill results from its Boumadine project in Morocco, confirming strong continuity of silver-equivalent mineralization along the 5.4km Boumadine Main Trend. Recent intercepts include silver-equ...
Aya Gold & Silver Hits High-Grade Silver at Depth in Morocco’s Zgounder Mine
PositiveAya Gold & Silver reported a series of high-grade silver drill intercepts from its ongoing exploration program at the Zgounder Silver Mine in Morocco. Results from both open-pit and central underground zones show notable grades over meaningful wi...
Aya Gold & Silver Doubles Boumadine NPV in Updated Economic Study
PositiveAya Gold & Silver has released an updated Preliminary Economic Assessment for its Boumadine polymetallic project in Morocco, showing sharply improved economics and a longer mine life. The study outlines production of zinc, lead and pyrite concent...
Aya Gold & Silver Expands Moroccan Footprint With Copper-Silver Portfolio Acquisition Near Zgounder
PositiveAya Gold & Silver has agreed to acquire a 139 km² portfolio of copper-silver exploration permits, including a 19 km² mining license, about 35 km west of its Zgounder Silver Mine in Morocco. The C$4 million, share-based deal expands Aya&...
Aya Gold & Silver Delivers Record Q2 on Strong Production and Higher Silver Prices
PositiveAya Gold & Silver reported a record second quarter of 2026, with revenue surging 151% year-over-year to $97 million and net income jumping to $35 million, driven by higher realized silver-equivalent prices, increased ounces sold and lower cash co...
Aya Gold & Silver Expands Moroccan Exploration Footprint With 259 km² Portfolio Acquisition
PositiveAya Gold & Silver has acquired a strategic portfolio of three mining licenses and 18 exploration permits in Morocco, adding 259.1 km² of exploration ground. The new assets lie within highly prospective but underexplored mineral belts, broade...
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.
Date of analysis: Aug 17, 2026