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Aya Gold & Silver
(TSX:AYA)
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Rating:77Outperform
Price Target:
C$47.00
▲(23.07% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:08/17/26
The score is driven primarily by the sharp TTM profitability/cash-flow improvement and supportive technical uptrend, reinforced by a positive earnings call with reaffirmed guidance, strong operational execution and a stronger cash position. Offsetting these strengths are a higher valuation multiple (P/E ~33) and a history of earnings/free-cash-flow volatility that raises execution and commodity-price sensitivity risk.
Positive Factors
Production growth and execution
Strong production growth, improving throughput, and progress toward reaffirmed annual guidance indicate that Aya is converting its operating assets into greater physical output. This supports revenue scale, improves fixed-cost absorption, and strengthens the foundation for sustained earnings over the next several quarters.
Negative Factors
Volatile earnings and cash conversion
The recent turnaround is substantial, yet the history of losses and uneven cash generation shows that profitability has not been consistently durable across cycles. This raises sensitivity to operating execution and silver-market conditions, making future earnings and reinvestment capacity less predictable.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Production growth and execution
Strong production growth, improving throughput, and progress toward reaffirmed annual guidance indicate that Aya is converting its operating assets into greater physical output. This supports revenue scale, improves fixed-cost absorption, and strengthens the foundation for sustained earnings over the next several quarters.
Read all positive factors
Aya Gold & Silver (AYA) vs. iShares MSCI Canada ETF (EWC)
Market Cap
C$5.58B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)1.07M
Price to Earnings (P/E)35.8
Beta (1Y)3.95
Revenue Growth264.86%
EPS GrowthN/A
CountryCA
Employees810
SectorBasic Materials
Sector Strength58
IndustrySilver
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.78
Shares Outstanding144,036,160
10 Day Avg. Volume900,198
30 Day Avg. Volume1,074,243
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-0.15
Price to Book (P/B)4.74
Price to Sales (P/S)9.71
P/FCF Ratio-462.35
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price Target
C$48.25Price Target Upside26.35% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering6
EPS Forecast (FY)1.25
Revenue Forecast (FY)C$441.74M
Aya Gold & Silver Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Montreal, Canada-based Aya Gold & Silver Inc., operating alongside its subsidiaries, focuses on the acquisition, exploration, appraisal, and development of valuable mineral properties across Morocco. The firm's exploration efforts are primarily di...
How the Company Makes Money
Aya Gold & Silver primarily generates revenue by selling silver produced from its mining operations. The company extracts silver-bearing ore, processes it (typically into silver concentrate and/or other saleable silver-bearing products depending o...
Aya Gold & Silver Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Aug 13, 2026
(Q2-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Nov 17, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call presents a strongly positive operational and financial performance: robust year-over-year production growth, dramatically higher revenue and cash flow, improved plant throughput, low cash costs, a fortified cash position, and impactful exploration results including a high-grade discovery. Manageable near-term headwinds include a weaker silver price realization in June that reduced Q2 selling prices, seasonal/reclaiming constraints at Boumadine, temporary increases in strip ratio and selective slowdown in underground mining to focus on development, and payability limitations on some Boumadine sales. Taken together, the positive operational execution, strong cash generation, pipeline growth (PEA/feasibility work and land acquisitions), and successful U.S. listing materially outweigh the identified challenges.Positive Updates
Strong Production Growth
Q2 2026 production of 1.7 million ounces silver equivalent, up 61% year-over-year and up 12% quarter-over-quarter; consolidated first-half production of 3.2 million ounces Ag eq (Zgounder 2.8M, Boumadine 0.5M), tracking midpoint of annual guidance.
Negative Updates
Quarterly Selling Price Weakness and Timing Impact
Average selling price for Zgounder in Q2 was $68.29/oz (down ~$15 from Q1 and ~6.4% below the LBMA quarterly average of $73). Rapid price declines in June meant ~1/3 of Q2 production was sold at lower prices, denting revenue despite strong production.
Read all updates
Q2-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Strong Production Growth
Q2 2026 production of 1.7 million ounces silver equivalent, up 61% year-over-year and up 12% quarter-over-quarter; consolidated first-half production of 3.2 million ounces Ag eq (Zgounder 2.8M, Boumadine 0.5M), tracking midpoint of annual guidance.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management reaffirmed its full‑year production guidance of 5.2–5.8 million ounces (Ag eq), noting the company is roughly halfway there after H1 production of 3.2M oz (Zgounder 2.8M, Boumadine ~0.5M); cash‑cost guidance was left unchanged at about $21.50/oz for Zgounder (H1 realized $18.18/oz; Q2 $17.69) and ~$10.10/oz for Boumadine (H1 $10.85; Q2 $10.58), with consolidated H1 cash cost ~$17.59/oz. They reiterated sustaining and growth CapEx of ~$36M (roughly split sustaining/growth), an exploration program of ~$60M (targeting ~200,000 m at Boumadine and ~30,000 m at Zgounder, ~93,000 m completed at Boumadine to date), and expect a revised Boumadine PEA in early September ahead of feasibility work; operational notes include Q2 milling ~3,900 tpd trending toward >4,000 tpd with new crushing/ore‑sorting, recoveries and availability >90%, an open‑pit strip ratio that may rise toward ~16 in the next six months and average ~13 for the year/life‑of‑mine, a healthy 374,000‑tonne ore stockpile, and a quarter‑end cash position of ~$183M (including $16M restricted) to fund development.Aya Gold & Silver Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
84
Very Positive
Balance Sheet
78
Positive
Cash Flow
70
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Mar 2026 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 339.30M | 202.10M | 39.12M | 42.85M | 38.24M | 34.30M |
| Gross Profit | 207.98M | 83.17M | 5.38M | 15.81M | 10.28M | 16.01M |
| EBITDA | 209.89M | 101.11M | -21.28M | 11.73M | 11.17M | 8.54M |
| Net Income | 111.03M | 45.56M | -21.62M | 5.50M | 466.00K | -307.00K |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 701.15M | 631.73M | 400.11M | 333.06M | 156.80M | 161.26M |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 182.80M | 136.32M | 30.94M | 49.83M | 39.36M | 81.67M |
| Total Debt | 86.20M | 113.54M | 101.33M | 58.79M | 287.00K | 425.88K |
| Total Liabilities | 201.38M | 207.91M | 153.63M | 107.92M | 26.50M | 21.26M |
| Stockholders Equity | 488.97M | 413.65M | 246.48M | 220.72M | 125.72M | 132.95M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 111.00M | -4.25M | -101.61M | -106.25M | -33.67M | -2.74M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 172.50M | 71.95M | -8.62M | 21.19M | 9.65M | 17.54M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -80.57M | -72.39M | -94.01M | -145.44M | -48.46M | -23.59M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -21.74M | 104.93M | 88.48M | 133.35M | 440.60K | 57.91M |
Aya Gold & Silver Technical Analysis
Positive
38.19
Price Trends
33.42
Positive
29.63
Positive
25.88
Positive
Market Momentum
1.76
Positive
54.58
Neutral
66.22
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TSE:AYA, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 38.19 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 38.35, above the 50-day MA of 33.42, and above the 200-day MA of 25.88, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 1.76 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 54.58 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 66.22 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for TSE:AYA.
Aya Gold & Silver Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
81 Outperform | C$4.91B | 9.67 | 22.20% | ― | 6.47% | 126.03% | |
77 Outperform | C$5.58B | 35.84 | 25.26% | ― | 264.86% | ― | |
71 Outperform | C$3.65B | 90.43 | 3.54% | 0.21% | 59.20% | -44.71% | |
71 Outperform | C$1.03B | 4.27 | 18.47% | ― | 62.75% | 181.92% | |
70 Outperform | C$1.25B | 20.98 | 21.53% | ― | 38.31% | -37.20% | |
61 Neutral | $10.43B | 7.12 | -0.05% | 2.87% | 2.86% | -36.73% |
* Basic Materials Sector Average
TSE:AYA
Aya Gold & Silver
38.76
22.27
135.05%
TSE:FVI
Fortuna Mining Corp
16.59
5.27
46.55%
TSE:SVM
Silvercorp Metals
16.51
9.11
123.14%
TSE:SCZ
Santacruz Silver Mining
13.40
3.72
38.43%
TSE:APM
Andean Precious Metals
6.88
-0.03
-0.43%
Aya Gold & Silver Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Aya Gold & Silver Doubles Boumadine NPV in Updated Economic Study
Positive
Sep 9, 2026
Aya Gold Silver has released an updated Preliminary Economic Assessment for its Boumadine polymetallic project in Morocco, showing sharply improved economics and a longer mine life. The study outlines production of zinc, lead and pyrite concentra...
Business Operations and StrategyM&A Transactions
Aya Gold & Silver Expands Moroccan Footprint With Copper-Silver Portfolio Acquisition Near Zgounder
Positive
Sep 1, 2026
Aya Gold Silver has agreed to acquire a 139 km² portfolio of copper-silver exploration permits, including a 19 km² mining license, about 35 km west of its Zgounder Silver Mine in Morocco. The C$4 million, share-based deal expands Aya...
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board ChangesFinancial Disclosures
Aya Gold & Silver Delivers Record Q2 on Strong Production and Higher Silver Prices
Positive
Aug 13, 2026
Aya Gold Silver reported a record second quarter of 2026, with revenue surging 151% year-over-year to $97 million and net income jumping to $35 million, driven by higher realized silver-equivalent prices, increased ounces sold and lower cash cost...
Business Operations and StrategyM&A Transactions
Aya Gold & Silver Expands Moroccan Exploration Footprint With 259 km² Portfolio Acquisition
Positive
Aug 6, 2026
Aya Gold Silver has acquired a strategic portfolio of three mining licenses and 18 exploration permits in Morocco, adding 259.1 km² of exploration ground. The new assets lie within highly prospective but underexplored mineral belts, broadeni...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.