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Aya Gold & Silver (TSE:AYA)
TSX:AYA
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Aya Gold & Silver (AYA) AI Stock Analysis

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TSE:AYA

Aya Gold & Silver

(TSX:AYA)

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Neutral 52 (OpenAI - 4o)
Rating:52Neutral
Price Target:
C$15.00
▲(1.15% Upside)
Aya Gold & Silver's overall score is driven by strong earnings call performance and stable financials, despite challenges in profitability and cash flow. Technical indicators suggest mixed momentum, and valuation is impacted by negative earnings.
Positive Factors
Revenue Growth
Strong revenue growth indicates effective production and sales strategies, enhancing the company's ability to invest in future projects and sustain operations.
Operational Efficiency
High operational efficiency reflects the company's ability to maximize output and minimize downtime, which supports long-term profitability and competitiveness.
Solid Balance Sheet
A strong balance sheet with ample liquidity provides financial stability and flexibility to pursue growth opportunities and weather economic fluctuations.
Negative Factors
Profitability Challenges
Ongoing profitability challenges may hinder the company's ability to reinvest in operations and could affect long-term financial health if not addressed.
Cash Flow Management
Negative free cash flow indicates potential liquidity issues, limiting the company's ability to fund new projects and manage debt effectively.
Dilution Challenges
Grade dilution can reduce the quality and value of mined resources, impacting revenue and necessitating improvements in operational control to maintain profitability.

Aya Gold & Silver (AYA) vs. iShares MSCI Canada ETF (EWC)

Aya Gold & Silver Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionAya Gold & Silver Inc. (AYA) is a Canadian-based mining company engaged in the acquisition, exploration, development, and operation of gold and silver properties. The company primarily operates in the precious metals sector, with its core activities centered around the Zgounder Silver Mine in Morocco, one of the highest-grade silver mines in the world. Aya Gold & Silver is committed to sustainable mining practices and aims to maximize shareholder value through efficient project development and mineral resource expansion.
How the Company Makes MoneyAya Gold & Silver generates revenue primarily through the extraction, production, and sale of silver and gold from its mining operations. The company's core revenue stream comes from its flagship Zgounder Silver Mine, where it produces and sells silver bullion and concentrates. Additional revenue is derived from exploration and development activities that may lead to the discovery of new mineral resources, enhancing production capacity and future sales potential. The company may also engage in strategic partnerships and joint ventures to expand its operational capabilities and market reach. Factors such as global commodity prices, operational efficiency, and successful exploration and development projects significantly influence Aya Gold & Silver's earnings.

Aya Gold & Silver Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Aug 14, 2025
(Q2-2025)
|
% Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Nov 11, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The earnings call highlighted significant achievements in production, financial performance, and operational efficiency. Despite challenges with grade dilution and some delays in exploration results, the company maintains a strong outlook and financial position.
Q2-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Record Silver Production
Aya Gold & Silver reached 10 million ounces of silver production since April 2020, with Q2 2025 production at 1,042,000 ounces.
Strong Financial Performance
Q2 2025 revenue was $38.6 million, with cash flow from operations at $8 million for the quarter and $15 million for the first half of 2025.
Solid Balance Sheet
The company has $114 million in cash, a $25 million line of credit, and completed a CAD 140 million (USD 100 million) equity raise in June.
Operational Efficiency
Plant availability was at 98%, surpassing industry standards, with recovery rates reaching 92% in June.
Exploration Success
Continued positive exploration results at Zgounder and Boumadine, with 33,000 meters of drilling completed in Q2.
Successful Fundraising
Aya received $8 million in compensation for an EPC contractual breach, further strengthening its financial position.
Positive Outlook for H2 2025
The company expects to meet its production guidance of 5 to 5.3 million ounces of silver for the year.
Negative Updates
Dilution Challenges
The average grade issue due to dilution is a key challenge, with efforts focused on improving mining selectivity and operational control.
Open Pit Preparation
Operational flexibility in the open pit was constrained, affecting grade management, but improvements are expected by Q4.
Delayed Exploration Results
Exploration results have been delayed as priority was given to production samples over exploration samples.
Company Guidance
During Aya Gold & Silver's Q2 2025 earnings call, the company provided robust guidance across multiple operational and financial metrics. Notably, they achieved silver production of 1,042,000 ounces in Q2, complementing their total production of over 10 million ounces since management took over in April 2020. The quarter's silver revenue stood at USD 38.6 million, with a cash flow from operations of USD 8 million, resulting in a total of USD 15 million for the first half of the year. The balance sheet remains strong, boasting USD 114 million in cash and a USD 25 million line of credit. Operational KPIs indicated a processing rate increase to 3,000 tonnes per day, with a recovery rate averaging 86.5% in Q2, peaking at 92% in June. Plant availability was at an impressive 98%, exceeding industry standards. The company also highlighted ongoing exploration activities, robust community engagement with 26 new initiatives, and successful equity raising, further strengthening their financial position. Looking forward, the company maintains its production guidance of 5 to 5.3 million ounces for 2025, with expectations of improved grades and reduced dilution in H2.

Aya Gold & Silver Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Aya Gold & Silver shows strong revenue growth but struggles with profitability and cash flow management. The balance sheet is stable with low leverage, but operational efficiency and cash flow generation need improvement.
Income Statement
45
Neutral
Aya Gold & Silver's income statement shows a mixed performance. The TTM data indicates a significant revenue growth rate of 36.74%, which is a positive sign. However, the company is struggling with profitability, as evidenced by negative net profit and EBIT margins. The gross profit margin has improved over the years, but the company needs to address its operational inefficiencies to enhance profitability.
Balance Sheet
55
Neutral
The balance sheet reflects a moderate financial position. The debt-to-equity ratio is relatively low at 0.38, indicating manageable leverage. However, the return on equity is negative, suggesting that the company is not generating sufficient returns on shareholders' equity. The equity ratio is healthy, showing a strong equity base relative to total assets.
Cash Flow
40
Negative
Cash flow analysis reveals challenges in generating positive free cash flow, with a negative free cash flow growth rate in the TTM period. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is positive, indicating some ability to convert income into cash, but the free cash flow to net income ratio is concerningly negative. The company needs to improve its cash flow management to support operations and growth.
BreakdownTTMDec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue92.81M39.12M42.85M38.24M34.30M13.82M
Gross Profit19.32M5.38M15.81M10.28M16.01M4.04M
EBITDA6.89M-21.28M11.73M11.17M8.54M1.50M
Net Income-10.16M-21.62M5.50M466.00K-307.00K-2.28M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets565.77M400.11M333.06M156.80M161.26M72.08M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments113.83M30.94M49.83M39.36M81.67M30.53M
Total Debt98.10M96.92M58.79M287.00K425.88K316.33K
Total Liabilities178.53M153.63M107.92M26.50M21.26M10.15M
Stockholders Equity387.42M246.48M220.72M125.72M132.95M61.03M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow-56.95M-101.61M-106.25M-33.67M-2.74M-2.66M
Operating Cash Flow12.02M-8.62M21.19M9.65M17.54M1.28M
Investing Cash Flow-73.11M-94.01M-145.44M-48.46M-23.59M-6.48M
Financing Cash Flow90.81M88.48M133.35M440.60K57.91M18.29M

Aya Gold & Silver Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Negative
Last Price14.83
Price Trends
50DMA
14.97
Negative
100DMA
13.95
Positive
200DMA
12.63
Positive
Market Momentum
MACD
0.36
Positive
RSI
44.50
Neutral
STOCH
26.10
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TSE:AYA, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 14.83 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 16.31, below the 50-day MA of 14.97, and above the 200-day MA of 12.63, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.36 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 44.50 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 26.10 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for TSE:AYA.

Aya Gold & Silver Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
73
Outperform
$1.94B25.258.70%0.39%39.43%-6.41%
71
Outperform
$3.45B14.9611.63%13.55%5720.77%
61
Neutral
$10.43B7.12-0.05%2.87%2.86%-36.73%
57
Neutral
73.65%
52
Neutral
C$2.43B152.08-3.11%130.83%-208.57%
48
Neutral
$4.28B-3.52%-16.28%
42
Neutral
C$516.85M-22.01%27.67%
* Basic Materials Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
TSE:AYA
Aya Gold & Silver
15.01
-3.62
-19.43%
TSE:FVI
Fortuna Mining Corp
11.46
4.25
58.95%
TSE:MAG
MAG Silver
34.38
10.39
43.30%
TSE:SVM
Silvercorp Metals
9.02
2.52
38.85%
TSE:DV
Dolly Varden Silver
6.10
0.74
13.81%
TSE:DSV
Discovery Silver
4.94
3.90
375.00%

Aya Gold & Silver Corporate Events

Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Aya Gold & Silver Achieves Record Silver Production in Q3 2025
Positive
Oct 15, 2025

Aya Gold & Silver Inc. announced a record quarterly production of 1.35 million ounces of silver at its Zgounder Silver Mine in Morocco, marking a 29% increase from the previous quarter. The company achieved this through operational improvements, including higher throughput, improved grades, and optimized recovery processes. The strong performance underscores Aya’s operational discipline and positions the company for continued success into 2026, with expectations of further improvements in the coming quarters.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:AYA) stock is a Buy with a C$25.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Aya Gold & Silver stock, see the TSE:AYA Stock Forecast page.

Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Aya Gold & Silver Rejects Misleading Short-Seller Allegations
Neutral
Sep 25, 2025

Aya Gold & Silver Inc. has strongly refuted claims made in a short-seller report, asserting that the allegations are misleading and inaccurate. The company highlights the reliability of its resource model, supported by extensive drilling and independent verification, and emphasizes its strong financial position. Aya is committed to transparency and operational integrity, with plans to release an updated technical report for the Zgounder mine and a preliminary economic assessment for the Boumadine project by year-end. The company remains focused on long-term value creation for shareholders and is prepared to address any false information that may harm its interests.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:AYA) stock is a Buy with a C$22.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Aya Gold & Silver stock, see the TSE:AYA Stock Forecast page.

Business Operations and StrategyProduct-Related Announcements
Aya Gold & Silver Unveils New High-Grade Gold Discovery at Asirem
Positive
Sep 15, 2025

Aya Gold & Silver has announced the discovery of a new high-grade gold zone at Asirem, west of the Boumadine Main Trend in Morocco, marking it as a promising target. The company has also reported high-grade drill results from the Boumadine Main Trend and Tizi Zone, and expanded its operations by acquiring two new mining licenses. These developments highlight Aya’s potential for significant growth in the Moroccan mining sector, reinforcing its position as a key player in the region’s emerging precious metals market.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:AYA) stock is a Buy with a C$22.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Aya Gold & Silver stock, see the TSE:AYA Stock Forecast page.

Business Operations and StrategyProduct-Related Announcements
Aya Gold & Silver Unveils New Mineralized Zone at Zgounder Mine
Positive
Sep 9, 2025

Aya Gold & Silver Inc. has announced the discovery of a new mineralized zone north of its current open-pit at the Zgounder Silver Mine in Morocco, along with high-grade silver results from its ongoing drilling program. This discovery has the potential to expand near-mine resources and enhance the company’s resource model, with further drilling planned to explore the mineralization at depth. The announcement underscores Aya’s strategic efforts to bolster its operational capabilities and strengthen its position in the silver mining industry, potentially benefiting stakeholders through increased resource estimates and future production potential.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:AYA) stock is a Hold with a C$12.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Aya Gold & Silver stock, see the TSE:AYA Stock Forecast page.

Aya Gold & Silver Shines in Q2 Earnings Call
Sep 1, 2025

The recent earnings call of Aya Gold & Silver Inc. painted a positive picture of the company’s current standing and future prospects. The sentiment expressed during the call was largely optimistic, highlighting significant achievements in production, financial performance, and operational efficiency. Despite facing challenges such as grade dilution and delays in exploration results, the company maintains a robust outlook and financial position.

Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Aya Gold & Silver Achieves Record Q2-2025 Results with Strong Production and Revenue Growth
Positive
Aug 14, 2025

Aya Gold & Silver reported strong financial and operational results for Q2-2025, with a significant increase in silver production and revenue driven by the ramp-up of the Zgounder plant. The company achieved record revenue of $38.6 million, reflecting a 182% year-over-year increase, and produced 1.04 million ounces of silver, up 141% from the previous year. Aya’s strategic focus on development and exploration is evidenced by the progress at Zgounder and the identification of a new target at Boumadine, positioning the company for long-term growth and value creation for shareholders.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:AYA) stock is a Buy with a C$23.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Aya Gold & Silver stock, see the TSE:AYA Stock Forecast page.

Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and Financing
Aya Gold & Silver Secures $8 Million for Zgounder Expansion
Positive
Aug 7, 2025

Aya Gold & Silver Inc. announced that its subsidiary, Zgounder Millenium Silver Mining, received a US$8 million payment under bank guarantees related to the Zgounder Expansion Project. This compensation underscores Aya’s strong project oversight and disciplined contract enforcement, potentially enhancing its operational stability and industry positioning.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:AYA) stock is a Buy with a C$23.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Aya Gold & Silver stock, see the TSE:AYA Stock Forecast page.

Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Aya Gold & Silver Achieves Record Silver Production in Q2-2025
Positive
Jul 24, 2025

Aya Gold & Silver reported a significant increase in silver production for Q2-2025, achieving 1.04 million ounces, a 140.9% increase from the previous year. The company attributes this success to strong operational execution and improvements in their new plant, which is now operating above nameplate capacity. The ramp-up period has seen enhanced mining rates and recovery percentages, with July operations already exceeding expectations. These developments are expected to position Aya strongly for the second half of 2025, with further increases in milling capacity anticipated and ongoing initiatives to optimize mining operations.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:AYA) stock is a Buy with a C$23.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Aya Gold & Silver stock, see the TSE:AYA Stock Forecast page.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Oct 23, 2025