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Aya Gold & Silver (TSE:AYA)
TSX:AYA

Aya Gold & Silver (AYA) AI Stock Analysis

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Aya Gold & Silver

(TSX:AYA)

Rating:61Neutral
Price Target:
C$12.50
▲(1.87%Upside)
Aya Gold & Silver's stock score reflects a combination of strong operational momentum and liquidity highlighted in the earnings call and corporate events, countered by financial challenges and a negative valuation profile. The technical indicators are generally positive, supporting a cautiously optimistic outlook.
Positive Factors
Mine Expansion
The ongoing expansion of Aya's Zgounder mine is expected to substantially increase silver production beginning in 2025.
Production Improvement
In January, Zgounder displayed strong improvements with silver production of 384koz as the plant is now operating above nameplate capacity.
Negative Factors
Earnings
Q4 revenue of $9M was below the estimate of $15M, driven by lower silver sales.
Production Costs
Q4 production costs were higher than estimated, with adjusted cash costs exceeding the previous estimate.
Silver Recovery
Silver recoveries declined to 83% from 87% due to the shutdown and processing oxidized ore.

Aya Gold & Silver (AYA) vs. iShares MSCI Canada ETF (EWC)

Aya Gold & Silver Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionAya Gold & Silver (AYA) is a publicly traded mining company focused on the exploration, development, and production of precious metals, primarily gold and silver. The company operates in the mining sector and is known for its high-quality mining assets in Morocco, including the Zgounder Silver Mine, which is one of the highest-grade silver mines in the world. Aya Gold & Silver's operations are committed to sustainable development and delivering value to shareholders through efficient resource management and production practices.
How the Company Makes MoneyAya Gold & Silver primarily generates revenue through the extraction, processing, and sale of precious metals, with a focus on silver and gold. The company's revenue model is centered around its mining operations, where it extracts ore, processes it to separate and purify the metals, and then sells the refined metals at market prices. Key revenue streams include the sale of silver and gold produced at its mining sites. The company's earnings are influenced by global precious metal prices, which can fluctuate based on market demand, geopolitical factors, and economic conditions. Additionally, Aya Gold & Silver may engage in strategic partnerships and joint ventures to enhance its exploration capabilities and expand its resource base, contributing to its overall revenue growth.

Aya Gold & Silver Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:May 13, 2025
(Q1-2025)
|
% Change Since: 22.33%|
Next Earnings Date:Aug 08, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The earnings call highlighted a successful ramp-up of the new plant with increased production and strong liquidity, despite facing challenges with recoveries and grades. The company is addressing these issues and expects improvements in the coming quarters.
Q1-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Successful Ramp-Up of New Plant
The new plant was built on budget and commissioned on time. It reached nameplate capacity within a couple of weeks and is now operating above nameplate capacity.
Increased Gold Production
Gold production increased significantly to 1,069,000 ounces, exceeding previous quarters.
Strong Liquidity Position
With $37 million in cash and restricted cash, $11 million in accounts receivable, and a new $25 million credit facility, the company's liquidity is very strong.
Exploration Success at Boumadine
Completed 46,000 meters of drilling in Q1, adding 100 million ounces of silver equivalent to the mineral resource.
Positive Financial Performance
Record revenue of $33 million, with a net income of nearly $7 million and operating cash flow of $7.9 million for Q1 2025.
High Plant Availability and Throughput
The plant's throughput exceeds nameplate capacity, and mill availability is in the high 90s.
Negative Updates
Lower Than Expected Recoveries
Q1 recoveries were at 82%, below the feasibility study expectations of 89%. The issue is attributed to the oxygen plant not operating at full capacity.
Grade Challenges in Underground Mining
The average grade was lower than expected, primarily due to issues in underground mining. Efforts are underway to improve this.
Mechanical Issues with the Oxygen Plant
The oxygen plant, crucial for improving recoveries, has not been working at its capacity and requires repairs.
Company Guidance
In the Q1 2025 earnings call, Aya Gold and Silver highlighted several key metrics reflecting the progress of their operations. The Zgounder mine expansion ramp-up led to enhanced production, with gold output reaching 1,069,000 ounces, significantly surpassing the previous quarter. The open pit ore mined represented approximately 68% of total ore mined, aligning closely with their 70%-30% open pit to underground target. The plant throughput exceeded nameplate capacity, while mill availability was in the high 90s. However, recoveries were at 82%, below the feasibility study target of 89%, due to issues with the oxygen plant, which are currently being addressed. The company reported a cash and restricted cash position of $37 million, supplemented by $11 million in accounts receivable and an additional $25 million credit facility from EBRD, positioning Aya with strong liquidity. The exploration efforts included nearly 3,000 meters drilled at Zgounder and 46,000 meters at Boumadine, contributing to an updated mineral resource estimate adding 100 million ounces of silver equivalent. Aya reiterated its annual guidance, projecting silver production between 5 and 5.3 million ounces, with cash costs between $15 and $17.5 per ounce and sustaining CapEx adding about $1 to $1.5 per ounce to the total cost.

Aya Gold & Silver Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Aya Gold & Silver's financial performance is mixed. The income statement reveals revenue growth but negative profitability metrics, leading to a low score. The balance sheet is moderately strong with manageable leverage, while cash flow shows significant challenges due to high capital expenditures. Overall, financial performance reflects operational inefficiencies and cash flow management issues that need addressing.
Income Statement
45
Neutral
The income statement shows fluctuating performance with recent TTM revenue growth but negative profitability metrics. Gross profit margin in the TTM is approximately 22.5%, but both EBIT and EBITDA margins are negative, indicating operational inefficiencies. The net profit margin is also negative at -17.9%, reflecting ongoing challenges in converting revenue into profit.
Balance Sheet
65
Positive
The balance sheet reflects a moderate financial position with a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.38, suggesting manageable leverage levels. The equity ratio stands at approximately 62%, indicating a solid equity base. However, the return on equity is negative due to losses, which is a concern for shareholder value.
Cash Flow
40
Negative
Cash flow analysis reveals significant challenges with negative free cash flow, indicating high capital expenditures. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is less than optimal, although there is a positive operating cash flow in the TTM, suggesting some improvement in cash generation.
Breakdown
TTMDec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021Dec 2020
Income StatementTotal Revenue
67.87M39.12M42.85M38.24M34.30M13.82M
Gross Profit
15.29M5.38M15.81M10.28M16.01M4.04M
EBIT
-32.55M-38.75M4.93M2.65M5.88M-1.88M
EBITDA
-11.51M-25.30M11.73M7.93M8.54M330.67K
Net Income Common Stockholders
-12.14M-21.62M5.50M1.40M1.27M-1.78M
Balance SheetCash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
18.32M30.94M49.83M39.36M81.67M30.53M
Total Assets
418.95M400.11M333.06M156.80M161.26M72.08M
Total Debt
97.44M96.92M58.79M287.00K425.88K316.33K
Net Debt
79.12M65.98M8.96M-39.07M-81.24M-30.22M
Total Liabilities
159.25M153.63M107.92M26.50M21.26M10.15M
Stockholders Equity
259.69M246.48M220.72M125.72M132.95M61.03M
Cash FlowFree Cash Flow
-75.73M-101.61M-106.25M-33.67M-2.74M-2.66M
Operating Cash Flow
9.54M-8.62M21.19M9.65M17.54M1.28M
Investing Cash Flow
-86.35M-94.01M-145.44M-48.46M-23.59M-6.48M
Financing Cash Flow
6.89M88.48M133.35M440.60K57.91M18.29M

Aya Gold & Silver Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Positive
Last Price12.27
Price Trends
50DMA
10.82
Positive
100DMA
11.31
Positive
200DMA
13.22
Negative
Market Momentum
MACD
0.42
Negative
RSI
59.62
Neutral
STOCH
85.39
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TSE:AYA, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 12.27 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 10.62, above the 50-day MA of 10.82, and below the 200-day MA of 13.22, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.42 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 59.62 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 85.39 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for TSE:AYA.

Aya Gold & Silver Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (50)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
TSFVI
78
Outperform
C$2.53B11.0012.07%30.33%
TSSVM
76
Outperform
$1.19B13.749.62%0.65%31.23%110.49%
TSAYA
61
Neutral
C$1.53B152.08-4.59%88.60%-684.16%
TSMAG
57
Neutral
$2.67B20.8416.27%0.95%61.66%
50
Neutral
$1.99B-1.13-21.15%3.69%2.46%-30.92%
TSDSV
48
Neutral
C$2.57B-24.80%-26.88%
TSDV
42
Neutral
C$323.25M-21.78%31.39%
* Basic Materials Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
TSE:AYA
Aya Gold & Silver
11.90
-3.11
-20.72%
TSE:MAG
MAG Silver
25.78
7.81
43.49%
TSE:FVI
Fortuna Silver Mines
8.00
-0.50
-5.88%
TSE:SVM
Silvercorp Metals
5.34
-0.16
-2.91%
TSE:DSV
Discovery Silver
3.21
2.06
179.13%
TSE:DV
Dolly Varden Silver
4.01
-0.67
-14.32%

Aya Gold & Silver Corporate Events

Business Operations and Strategy
Aya Gold & Silver Unveils Promising High-Grade Silver Discoveries at Zgounder
Positive
May 21, 2025

Aya Gold & Silver Inc. has reported significant high-grade silver results from its ongoing drilling program at the Zgounder Silver Mine in Morocco. The results, which include some of the best to date, indicate strong continuity at depth and the discovery of a new high-grade zone outside the current resource model. Additionally, the company has identified several high-priority regional targets with potential for new discoveries, enhancing its exploration prospects and potentially strengthening its market position.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:AYA) stock is a Buy with a C$23.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Aya Gold & Silver stock, see the TSE:AYA Stock Forecast page.

Business Operations and Strategy
Aya Gold & Silver Releases 2024 Sustainability Report Highlighting ESG Achievements
Positive
May 15, 2025

Aya Gold & Silver Inc. has published its 2024 Sustainability Report, highlighting significant progress in environmental, social, and governance (ESG) areas. The report, aligned with the TCFD framework and Global Reporting Standards, showcases achievements such as a 48.53% decrease in emissions intensity, a 20% increase in female workforce representation, and joining the UN Global Compact. These efforts underscore Aya’s commitment to sustainability and responsible mining, reinforcing its leadership position in the industry.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:AYA) stock is a Buy with a C$23.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Aya Gold & Silver stock, see the TSE:AYA Stock Forecast page.

Private Placements and FinancingBusiness Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Aya Gold & Silver Achieves Record Q1-2025 Results and Strengthens Growth Strategy
Positive
May 13, 2025

Aya Gold & Silver reported record-breaking financial and operational results for Q1-2025, with silver production increasing by 192% and revenues surging by 566% compared to the previous year. The company strengthened its liquidity position with a $25 million credit facility and continued its growth strategy with successful ramp-up operations, enhanced ESG initiatives, and strategic developments, positioning itself for sustainable growth and profitability.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:AYA) stock is a Buy with a C$22.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Aya Gold & Silver stock, see the TSE:AYA Stock Forecast page.

Private Placements and FinancingBusiness Operations and Strategy
Aya Gold & Silver Secures $25M EBRD Credit Facility for Moroccan Growth
Positive
May 12, 2025

Aya Gold & Silver has secured a US$25 million credit facility from the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development to support its growth strategy in Morocco, particularly the development of the Boumadine polymetallic project. This endorsement from EBRD highlights Aya’s strong operational and financial track record, reinforcing its leadership position in Morocco and its commitment to sustainable growth, while enhancing financial flexibility and strengthening its balance sheet.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:AYA) stock is a Buy with a C$22.0000 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Aya Gold & Silver stock, see the TSE:AYA Stock Forecast page.

Business Operations and Strategy
Aya Gold & Silver Reports Strong April Production at Zgounder Mine
Positive
May 9, 2025

Aya Gold & Silver Inc. reported strong operational progress at its Zgounder Silver Mine, with April 2025 production metrics showing significant improvements. The mine ramp-up exceeded expectations, with increased mine production and mill throughput, while recovery rates are expected to improve further with ongoing corrective actions. The company’s focus on optimizing oxygen production and collaborating with equipment suppliers aims to enhance long-term performance, confirming its commitment to maximizing throughput and strengthening cash flow.

Financial Disclosures
Aya Gold & Silver to Announce Q1 2025 Results
Neutral
May 2, 2025

Aya Gold & Silver Inc. announced it will release its first quarter 2025 results on May 13, 2025, followed by a conference call to discuss financial and operational outcomes. This announcement highlights Aya’s commitment to transparency and engagement with stakeholders, reinforcing its position as a key player in the silver mining industry.

Private Placements and FinancingM&A TransactionsBusiness Operations and Strategy
Aya Gold & Silver Completes Strategic Transaction with Mx2 Mining
Positive
Apr 16, 2025

Aya Gold & Silver has completed a strategic transaction with Mx2 Mining, transferring rights to the Amizmiz Gold Project in Morocco. Mx2 now holds a 100% interest in the project, supported by a C$16 million private placement, with Aya owning 42.3% of Mx2. This partnership aims to unlock the potential of the Amizmiz project, leveraging Mx2’s exploration capabilities and Aya’s strategic interests, enhancing their operational momentum in Morocco. The transaction is expected to foster collaboration and streamline logistics, with Mx2’s new headquarters in Marrakech facilitating exploration activities across Morocco and North Africa.

Executive/Board ChangesBusiness Operations and Strategy
Aya Gold & Silver Strengthens Board with New Appointment
Positive
Apr 14, 2025

Aya Gold & Silver Inc. has appointed John Burzynski as an Independent Director to its Board, following the departure of Nikolaos Sofronis due to health reasons. Burzynski brings extensive mining experience, having been a key figure in the development of the Canadian Malartic Mine and leading Osisko Mining Inc. through significant growth. His expertise is expected to enhance Aya’s strategy to become a leading silver producer, while the company expresses gratitude for Sofronis’s contributions.

Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Aya Gold & Silver Reports Record Silver Production in Q1-2025
Positive
Apr 11, 2025

Aya Gold & Silver announced a record production of 1.07 million ounces of silver in Q1-2025 at its Zgounder Silver Mine in Morocco, marking a 192% increase from the previous year. This significant growth was achieved despite planned shutdowns and seasonal challenges, with the company optimizing plant operations and transitioning to producing silver doré, which increases revenue per ounce by approximately 15%. The results position Aya for a strong second half of 2025, reflecting the strength of its team and operational execution.

Business Operations and Strategy
Aya Gold & Silver Extends Tizi Zone and Identifies New Targets at Boumadine
Positive
Apr 8, 2025

Aya Gold & Silver has announced significant high-grade drill results from its Boumadine project in Morocco, extending the Tizi Zone to 2.2 kilometers and identifying new regional targets. These results confirm the continuity of mineralization along the Boumadine Main Trend and highlight the project’s potential for resource growth, which could enhance Aya’s position in the mining industry and benefit stakeholders through increased exploration opportunities.

Business Operations and Strategy
Aya Gold & Silver Extends Boumadine Zone and Identifies New Targets
Positive
Apr 8, 2025

Aya Gold & Silver has announced significant high-grade drill results from its Boumadine project in Morocco, extending the Tizi mineralized zone by 200 meters and identifying new regional targets. These results confirm the continuity of the Boumadine Main Trend, highlighting the project’s strong resource growth potential and reinforcing its district-scale potential with over 20 kilometers of potential strike for future exploration.

Business Operations and StrategyRegulatory Filings and Compliance
Aya Gold & Silver Releases Updated Technical Report for Boumadine Project
Positive
Mar 31, 2025

Aya Gold & Silver has filed a technical report for the Boumadine Polymetallic Project in Morocco, providing an updated mineral resource estimate. This filing, prepared by qualified experts, underscores Aya’s commitment to transparency and could enhance its operational strategy, potentially impacting its market position and stakeholder interests positively.

Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Aya Gold & Silver Announces 2024 Results and 2025 Outlook
Neutral
Mar 28, 2025

Aya Gold & Silver reported a decrease in silver production for 2024, aligning with revised guidance, while revenues from silver sales also saw a decline. Despite increased cash costs due to expansion efforts, the company maintained a robust financial position with significant cash reserves. The completion of the Zgounder Mine expansion marked a pivotal achievement, allowing for commercial production and setting the stage for future growth. The Boumadine exploration program expanded significantly, indicating potential for further resource development. The company is focused on optimizing operations and maximizing profitability as it enters 2025.

Business Operations and Strategy
Aya Gold & Silver Reports Significant High-Grade Silver Discoveries at Zgounder Mine
Positive
Mar 26, 2025

Aya Gold & Silver Inc. announced significant high-grade silver drill results from its exploration program at the Zgounder Silver Mine in Morocco. These results, which include high-grade intercepts both at depth and near the open-pit, suggest the potential for resource expansion and continuity of mineralization. The findings reinforce the company’s confidence in extending its open-pit operations and enhancing its resource potential, which could positively impact its industry positioning and stakeholder interests.

Business Operations and Strategy
Aya Gold & Silver Reports Increased Daily Silver Production in February 2025
Positive
Mar 11, 2025

Aya Gold & Silver reported a silver production of 357,333 ounces in February 2025 at its Zgounder Silver Mine in Morocco. Despite a planned shutdown, the company achieved an increase in daily silver production and mine production, with a 37% rise in mine output compared to January. The improvements in production metrics reflect enhanced operational efficiency and sustained processing capacity.

Glossary
OutperformA stock rated as "Outperform" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider this stock a good buying opportunity.
NeutralA stock rated as "Neutral" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly attractive nor unattractive for investment. Investors may consider holding onto the stock, as it is not expected to either significantly outperform or underperform the market.
UnderperformA stock rated as "Underperform" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock may deliver lower returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider selling the stock or avoiding it as an investment.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.