Want to see TRIN full AI Analyst Report?
Top Page
Trinity Capital
(NYSE:TRIN)
Select Model
Select Model
Rating:61Neutral
Price Target:
$18.00
▼(-3.74% Downside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:10/09/26
The score is driven primarily by mixed financial quality: strong current profitability is offset by consistently weak operating/free cash flow and leverage risk. Valuation is a clear positive (low P/E and high dividend yield), and the latest earnings call was constructive with stable dividend guidance and strong credit/origination momentum, but technical indicators point to near-term bearish price momentum.
Positive Factors
Platform growth
Strong origination activity demonstrates continued demand for Trinity’s venture lending and equipment financing capabilities. Sustained deployment at this scale can expand the income-producing portfolio, deepen sponsor relationships, and support recurring interest and fee revenue over the next several quarters.
Negative Factors
Weak cash generation
Persistently negative operating and free cash flow weakens the cash support behind reported profitability and can make funding growth more dependent on capital markets or portfolio activity. Continued volatility would constrain financial flexibility and reduce confidence in the durability of distributable earnings.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Platform growth
Strong origination activity demonstrates continued demand for Trinity’s venture lending and equipment financing capabilities. Sustained deployment at this scale can expand the income-producing portfolio, deepen sponsor relationships, and support recurring interest and fee revenue over the next several quarters.
Read all positive factors
Trinity Capital (TRIN) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$1.53B
Dividend Yield13.66%
Average Volume (3M)973.69K
Price to Earnings (P/E)8.4
Beta (1Y)0.67
Revenue Growth8.54%
EPS Growth-23.45%
CountryUS
Employees113
SectorFinancial
Sector Strength70
IndustryAsset Management
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)1.92
Shares Outstanding94,693,570
10 Day Avg. Volume1,208,653
30 Day Avg. Volume973,692
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-0.71
Price to Book (P/B)0.93
Price to Sales (P/S)4.37
P/FCF Ratio-1.90
Enterprise Value/Market Cap2.03
Enterprise Value/Revenue10.84
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit12.51
Enterprise Value/Ebitda13.11
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$16.50Price Target Upside-11.76% Downside
Rating ConsensusHold
Number of Analyst Covering3
EPS Forecast (FY)2.08
Revenue Forecast (FY)$368.31M
Trinity Capital Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Trinity Capital Inc. is a business development company specializing in term loans, equipment financing, and private equity-related investments. The firm provides tech lending, equipment financing, life sciences, warehouse lending, and sponsor fina...
How the Company Makes Money
Trinity Capital primarily makes money by originating and holding income-producing loans to venture-backed companies and earning interest income on those loans. Key revenue streams generally include: (1) recurring interest income from portfolio loa...
Trinity Capital Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Aug 05, 2026
(Q2-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Nov 04, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call highlighted strong operational momentum: record NAV, significant AUM growth, record originations, solid investment income growth (25% YoY), robust credit metrics (non-accruals <1%, 99% performing), and expansion of fee-generating businesses (SBIC, JV, ELS). Key short-term headwinds were largely timing and mix-driven — back-end weighted fundings, elevated early repayments, and an ~80 bps QoQ decline in effective yields — which management expects will largely normalize with redeployment and fund fee ramp. Given the breadth of positive developments, improving scale and diversified fee engines that should drive future earnings, the positives materially outweigh the near-term timing and yield challenges.Positive Updates
Strong NAV and NAV per Share Growth
Net asset value grew to a record $1.3 billion, up 9% quarter-over-quarter and 37% year-over-year. NAV per share increased $0.20 to $13.47, a 1.6% quarter-over-quarter gain.
Negative Updates
Timing Mismatch and NII Pressure
Net investment income per share decreased quarter-over-quarter primarily due to lower dividend income (Q1 included a non-recurring dividend) and timing mismatch: significant payoffs occurred early in the quarter while record fundings were back-end weighted, delaying yield capture until Q3.
Read all updates
Q2-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Strong NAV and NAV per Share Growth
Net asset value grew to a record $1.3 billion, up 9% quarter-over-quarter and 37% year-over-year. NAV per share increased $0.20 to $13.47, a 1.6% quarter-over-quarter gain.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Trinity reiterated steady near‑term guidance: a $0.17 monthly dividend through end‑Q3, confidence in dividend stability and an improving earnings trajectory into H2 2026, and an expectation that Q3 will more fully reflect the benefit of record Q2 fundings (Q2 fundings $619M, up 69% YoY; commitments $709M) and a strong pipeline ($700M accepted term sheets, $1.2B unfunded — 91% subject to diligence). Key financial/portfolio metrics cited as supporting that outlook include NAV $1.3B (+9% QoQ, +37% YoY) and NAV/share $13.47 (+$0.20 QoQ), Platform AUM $3.2B (+36% YoY), total investment income $87M (+25% YoY), NII $41.6M or $0.51/share (100% of the quarterly distribution) with managed funds contributing $0.03/share (~6% of NII), net leverage ~1.18x, platform liquidity $939M, estimated undistributed taxable income ~$66M (~$0.71/share; >4 months of distributions), ROAE 15.2%, effective portfolio yield 15%, PIK ~1% of income, first‑lien coverage 89% (EV‑backed weighted avg LTV 24%), non‑accruals 5 companies (<1% of portfolio), 70% of portfolio originated since 2025, average realized loan duration 30 months, 202 warrant positions across 129 portfolio companies, plus strategic capital moves (SBIC >$75M closed equity expected to create >$250M incremental capacity at 2:1 leverage, $300M 5‑yr notes, $100M ATM at ~24% premium) that management says will drive incremental fee and earnings growth.Trinity Capital Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
78
Positive
Balance Sheet
62
Positive
Cash Flow
28
Negative
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 286.35M | 232.25M | 237.44M | 174.84M | 43.54M | 175.48M |
| Gross Profit | 248.10M | 232.25M | 175.49M | 141.75M | 9.39M | 155.09M |
| EBITDA | 236.78M | 221.13M | 118.27M | 134.02M | -24.19M | 132.57M |
| Net Income | 167.79M | 135.60M | 115.60M | 76.89M | -30.38M | 132.32M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 2.81B | 2.48B | 1.77B | 1.31B | 1.13B | 937.12M |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 22.18M | 19.11M | 9.63M | 4.76M | 10.61M | 31.68M |
| Total Debt | 1.50B | 1.31B | 877.67M | 646.89M | 610.59M | 455.35M |
| Total Liabilities | 1.54B | 1.39B | 951.26M | 699.82M | 666.79M | 490.58M |
| Stockholders Equity | 1.27B | 1.09B | 822.98M | 611.16M | 459.65M | 446.53M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | -216.50M | -535.50M | -317.33M | -99.00M | 54.72M | -242.88M |
| Operating Cash Flow | -215.80M | -535.50M | -316.91M | -96.26M | 54.91M | -241.67M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -378.12M | -785.00K | -420.00K | -2.74M | -290.85M | -1.20M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 589.85M | 545.77M | 322.19M | 93.15M | 199.81M | 228.52M |
Trinity Capital Technical Analysis
Negative
18.70
Price Trends
17.47
Negative
17.13
Negative
15.89
Positive
Market Momentum
-0.38
Positive
33.26
Neutral
19.60
Positive
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TRIN, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 18.7 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 16.91, above the 50-day MA of 17.47, and above the 200-day MA of 15.89, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.38 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 33.26 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 19.60 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for TRIN.
Trinity Capital Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (68)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
74 Outperform | $1.60B | 17.88 | 0.02% | 10.59% | -17.25% | -53.04% | |
68 Neutral | $18.00B | 11.42 | 9.92% | 3.81% | 9.73% | 1.22% | |
65 Neutral | $1.43B | 11.71 | 11.04% | 11.45% | 25.04% | 13.84% | |
65 Neutral | $3.05B | 7.78 | 17.21% | 11.99% | 44.00% | 36.72% | |
64 Neutral | $270.82M | 10.13 | 1.46% | 26.49% | -13.29% | ― | |
61 Neutral | $1.53B | 8.43 | 14.83% | 13.66% | 8.54% | -23.45% | |
59 Neutral | $172.20M | 4.27 | 10.97% | 23.64% | 12.61% | -3.62% |
* Financial Sector Average
TRIN
Trinity Capital
16.18
3.12
23.92%
CSWC
Capital Southwest
22.38
3.94
21.39%
HTGC
Hercules Capital, Inc.
16.49
0.78
4.98%
HRZN
Horizon Technology
4.00
-0.84
-17.27%
TPVG
TriplePoint Venture Growth
4.23
-0.54
-11.26%
TSLX
Sixth Street Specialty Lending
16.99
-3.08
-15.35%
Trinity Capital Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Trinity Capital Reports Strong Third-Quarter 2026 Portfolio Activity
Positive
Oct 8, 2026
On October 8, 2026, Trinity Capital reported strong portfolio activity for the third quarter of 2026, originating $880 million in new commitments and funding $614 million in gross investments, primarily through secured loans, equipment financings,...
Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and FinancingRegulatory Filings and Compliance
Trinity Capital Issues Senior Unsecured Notes to Refinance Debt
Positive
Oct 5, 2026
On September 30, 2026, Trinity Capital Inc. entered an underwriting agreement with Keefe, Bruyette Woods Inc. and MUFG Securities Americas Inc. for the issuance and sale of $350 million of 7.500% notes due 2032, with customary representations, wa...
Business Operations and StrategyDividendsFinancial Disclosures
Trinity Capital Posts Strong Second-Quarter 2026 Results
Positive
Aug 5, 2026
On August 5, 2026, Trinity Capital reported second-quarter 2026 results showing total investment income of $87.2 million, up 25.5% year-over-year, and record net investment income of $46.0 million, or $0.51 per share. Return on average equity reac...
Business Operations and StrategyDelistings and Listing Changes
Trinity Capital Announces Strategic NYSE Listing Transfer
Positive
Jul 15, 2026
On July 14, 2026, Trinity Capital announced plans to move the listing of its common stock and two series of fixed-rate senior notes from the Nasdaq Global Select Market to the New York Stock Exchange and NYSE Texas. The company’s common stoc...
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Trinity Capital Highlights Strong Q2 Investment Commitments
Positive
Jul 9, 2026
On July 9, 2026, Trinity Capital reported that it originated $709 million in new commitments during the second quarter of 2026, bringing first-half 2026 commitments to $1.1 billion. During the quarter, it funded $619 million in gross investments, ...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.